Election Winners and Losers

November 27th, 2011 at 12:19 pm by David Farrar

My initial thoughts on the winners and losers from the election.

Winners

John Key. Key has broken his own record for the highest party vote percentage achieved under MMP. Governments normally lose support, not gain it. The Clark Government did increase support in 2002 by 2% but this was really just picking up some of the Alliance vote which had been 7% and collapsed. Key is not only re-elected Prime Minister, but has the ability to implement National’s policy programme.

Steven Joyce and Jo de Joux. This is the third campaign in a row for the campaign chairman and manager (plus three by-elections). In 2005 the National vote went up 17% which at the time was all attributed to Don Brash, but the campaign played a major part also. They ran the 2008 campaign to victory and in 2011 set a target of 48% of the party vote. The count closed last night at 47.99% so that is as precise as you can get.

Gerry Brownlee. National won the party vote in all Christchurch electorates and have won Waimakariri plus tied in Christchurch Central. This would not have happened if there was wide-spread dis-satisfaction with the Government’s response to the earthquake.

Winston Peters. Made the 5% threshold with room to spare. A remarkable comeback. Will have little influence in the next three years, but is well positioned to hold the balance of power in 2014. Biggest challenge may be to avoid scandals. Will soon be in his 70s so may need to start thinking a leadership transition, which could be Andrew Williams.

Damien O’Connor. Only Labour MP to win a seat off National.

Nikki Kaye and Paula Bennett. Both with-stood massive challenges from Labour in Auckland, who targeted all their regional resources into winning Auckland Central and Waitakere. Even massive tactical voting from Green voters wasn’t enough to knock them out.

Metiria Turei and Russel Norman. They made 10% and got four extra MPs. A very good night for them.

John Banks and Peter Dunne. Partly thanks to the rise of Winston, centre-right voters showed their intelligence and voted to help ensure a National-led Government can implement a centre-right policy programme.

Losers

Phil Goff, whose political career is over. However he should not be judged by the last three years. I’ll blog in more detail on Goff later, but he has done many things to make New Zealand a better place, and was handed a poisoned chalice by Clark.

Trevor Mallard. Labour’s campaign manager managed to knock nine of his colleagues out of caucus, and drop Labour to their lowest share of the vote since the Great Depression. The disgraceful smear pamphlets reminded many people of why they voted to evict Labour in 2008.

Don Brash, He promised up to 15% and in the end failed to even get himself elected to Parliament. A sad end to a great contribution to NZ public life.

ACT. Great for National that Banks won, but will a Banks-led ACT be viable for the future? I’m not so sure.

Colin Craig. He boasted for months on the back of a very misleading poll that he would win Rodney and he got thrashed. He spent a huge amount of the party vote and got nowhere near the 5% threshold. May have had a future if NZ First had not made it back (as policies in many areas similar) but hard to see where he can gain extra support from now.

Horizon Polls, the Sunday Star-Times and Radio Live. I will post in detail on this, but the media who kept running that poll as news worthy should be humiliated. Almost all year they have been saying National has only around 35% of decided voters, and the election results shows their methodology is fatally flawed.

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100 Responses to “Election Winners and Losers”

  1. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    DPF

    Back to bed for you and straighten out please……………..thinking a leadership transition, which could be Andrew Williams.

    Goodness gracious me.

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  2. adamsmith1922 (890 comments) says:

    DPF

    Williams as a party leader, sorry you must be tired

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  3. s.russell (1,641 comments) says:

    On a human note, my sympathies too to those MPs who failed to get re-elected. Labour of course lost a bunch – including Kelvin Davis and Stuart Nash, who are more able MPs than many who were re-elected. National has lost Paul Quinn, and I fear that special votes will knock back National to 59 MPs – costing Aaron Gilmore too. Howsoever I may agree/disagree with their politics, they are all human beings and gave massive time and energy to a cause they passionately believed in: making New Zealand a better place for us all. Their heartbreak is surely greater than anyone else’s.

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  4. s.russell (1,641 comments) says:

    On NZ First:
    Williams as leader??? That would be insane! However, that is the main criterion for leadership in NZ First so Williams must be in with a good chance! (Though I have high hopes that some of their other new MPs will proove even loopier.)
    Be that as it may the question is moot. Peters will remain leader until he dies. He will never retire, and will probably live to the age of 98.

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  5. Foxton (28 comments) says:

    I think the Conservatives have room to grow. NZ1st is nothing without Winston so when he goes or as people get sick of him some of the share could go to the Conservatives. They could also snare a couple of people in 2014 who voted National this time.
    You attribute Labour’s growth in 2002 to Alliance disintegrating which is fair but I think at least part of National’s growth this time might be the 2.5% ACT lost between 2008 and last night.
    I think one big winner on an electorate level was Nathan Guy opening a huge margin in Otaki against a good Labour candidate. Use to be a very marginal seat.

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  6. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    Losing Paul Quinn is no big deal, the man is a moron.

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  7. eszett (2,408 comments) says:

    ACT. Great for National that Banks won

    Would have been a lot better if National had taken Epsom in hindsight. The cup of tea was a total waste of time.

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  8. The Scorned (719 comments) says:

    Yeah ….national should have taken Epsom and let ACT die. Then it could have a clean regroup and rebuild in a new vehicle for 2014.

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  9. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    but [Goff] has done many things to make New Zealand a better place

    No, he hasn’t.

    He is the cynical, lying front man for state sector unions looking to plunder everyone else.

    If he’d won he’d be shitting on the average worker and unskilled jobseekers from a great height, and all the time smiling his creepy smile. He represents everything that’s bad about politics: special-interest groups and rent-seekers organising to screw the rest of us. Fuck him and fuck Labour.

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  10. Keeping Stock (10,337 comments) says:

    Raymond Huo faces a nervous 10 days or so. If Nicky Wagner wins Christchurch Central, he remains an MP. If Brendon Burns wins Christchurch Central, Huo joins the likes of Beaumont, Sepuloni, Barker and Chadwick on the dole queue.

    And eight of Labour’s top 20 remain as MP’s despite losing electorate contests. Thanks MMP.

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  11. s.russell (1,641 comments) says:

    Would have been a lot better if National had taken Epsom in hindsight.

    Yes and no.

    What if Goldsmith had won? National would get 1/2 of an extra seat (because the Act vote would have been wasted and the one seat would have gone back in the pot). Given that National will probably lose one when special votes are counted (leaving a centre-right majority of 1), that might actually have proved hideously costly: the Maori Party holding the balance of power, with who-knows-what consequences.

    On the other hand, if the cup of tea had never taken place… National would probably have won with a much bigger margin, and Winston would have suffocated from lack of oxygen. (Of course, no-one could have predicted what would come out of that teapot, but still..)

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  12. Dexter (303 comments) says:

    The real losers are the left voters who tactically voted NZF…

    They were the difference this time round between NZF sinking into oblivion where it belongs and being resurrected.

    Now they have elected people like Richard Prosser, who wants a a seperate South Island parliament and to abolish clean air laws and kyoto, and Andrew Williams who amongst other things wants to repeal the anti smacking law.

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  13. Redbaiter (8,801 comments) says:

    ACT got 22,000 votes. The Maori Party got 27,000.

    Colin Craig got over 50,000 votes, making the Conservatives NZ’s fifth largest party.

    This is after being ignored by the Progressive mainstream media and if mentioned at all, only in a dismissive or derogatory way.

    The Conservative Party is coming after the treacherous left wing Nats, and will (one day) replace them as NZ’s main right of center party.

    The fad of progressive politics (that Farrar, Key etc subscribe to) will soon have run its course.

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  14. Ross12 (1,425 comments) says:

    I hope the Greens enjoy their peak in NZ politics. They have gained at the expense of Labour, but Labour will get that back. As the Climate Change scam unravels over the next 12-24 mths , the realities of some of the renewable energy schemes inefficiencies show up causing them to fallover ( already happening in Europe) and the costs of their policies are exposed internationally with the tough economic times we are going to go through the Greens will be caught in the back wash.

    I think the Government will be in for a few laughs over the next 3 years as the egos in the opposition start clashing with each other.

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  15. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    There is room for the Conservatives to grow.

    Colin Craig needs to become a personality though. I dont think I have ever heard him speak.

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  16. CharlieBrown (1,011 comments) says:

    The biggest losers in this election is New Zealand. We have the looney lefty greens gaining traction, we have another 3 years of absolutely no progress in the way of keys do-nothing national government, we have geriatric winston in parliament again, and we have a labour party biding their time to next election to bring in even worse policies than last time.

    John Key is going to go down in history as the leader that shifted NZ politics to the left and held back a generation of progress. He has normalised socialism in this country.

    About the only positive is MMP looks like it won the referendum.

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  17. Dave A (61 comments) says:

    eight of Labour’s top 20 remain as MP’s despite losing electorate contests. Thanks MMP.

    No it’s thanks to the people who compiled Labour’s list.

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  18. The Scorned (719 comments) says:

    Dime….Craig sounds like a whiny schoolboy on radio….you didn’t miss much.

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  19. DavidC (179 comments) says:

    Glad Banks won but ACT need to reinvent themselves and get back to basics (without Banks). They have 3 years and Nation will need them.

    CCCP won 2.76 % of the vote. Would have been 50/50 left/right or more 30/70 left/right? I am not a churchie which I am picking is a core demographic for them. Should National be looking to grow the CCCP and do a deal?

    Vastly hungover, going to venture out for a walk.

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  20. slightlyrighty (2,475 comments) says:

    You forgot Hone in the Loser’s camp.

    He will be ineffective for the next 3 years

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  21. Redbaiter (8,801 comments) says:

    Craig’s strategy emulates that of the Canadian Conservative Party, now the most powerful political movement in that country.

    The Canadian Conservative party came to power in the 2006 federal election as a minority government, a position it maintained after the 2008 election, before winning its first majority government in 2011. The current party leader is Stephen Harper, who has been the Prime Minister of Canada since 2006.

    The Nationals, basically just Labour with a slightly less red hue and notwithstanding current popularity with NZ’s urban liberals, will soon have run their course.

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  22. beautox (422 comments) says:

    Two really stupid sets of voters : 1) The green and labour voters who voted for their own candidates in Epsom. Too stupid to tactically vote.. 2) The 2.8% of people who voted conservative. What were they thinking? No chance of 5%. No chance of a electoral seat. All they did was push national under 50%. Why did they bother going to vote at all??

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  23. MarkyMark (2 comments) says:

    Can someone explain what exactly has to happen in terms of the special votes for National to get 59 MPs?

    I think the loss of one seat could have major consequences in terms of the ability of National to govern the whole of next term.

    With 59 seats National would need the support of both John Banks and Peter Dunne to be certain of surviving a confidence motion (in a 121 seat Parliament).

    This means that if (god forbid) anything were to happen which meant that John Banks or Peter Dunne were unable to keep their seat the resultant by-election would in effect be a referendum on whether to hold fresh elections. The Maori party would not vote to support an unpoplular National government.

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  24. Enzo (45 comments) says:

    DPF said: “Labour in Auckland, who targeted all their regional resources into winning Auckland Central and Waitakere”

    If only!

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  25. artemisia (242 comments) says:

    Hone only needs to be in the House often enough to avoid fines. He will be starting his 2014 campaign next week, as much of it as possible on the taxpayer’s dime.

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  26. Richard Hurst (855 comments) says:

    Poor old Don B. The undertaker for the funeral of ACT. Why did the ACT MP’s hate each others guts so much? That’s what killed the party.

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  27. Someone Else (135 comments) says:

    Ba haha! Check out the provisional results for Epsom!

    Goldsmith won Mt Eden, Auckland City, Greenlane, Kingsland, Mt Albert, Mechanics Bay, Balmoral, Three Kings, One Tree Hill and most Parnell booths! Goldsmith is the most popular National MP for the Left! ;)

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  28. backster (2,171 comments) says:

    I agree with Wat Dabney………Goff has shown himself to be an inveterate liar, an excuse for a man who endeavours to visit his own defects of character on other more honourable men. A true hypocrite, and I have no sympathy for him.
    I would like to see Act drop this ‘ the Liberal Party’ nonsense and endeavour to amalgamate with the Conservative Party under a different name to both. Banks shares conservative values as did many of the foundation members of Act. It is a disaster for National that after obtaining the highest vote percentage of any party at anytime they have a likely majority of one. MMP will eventually result in long term Socialist tyranny. Labour looks like a spent force its new leader will either be a self serving Unionist or a Queer neither quality likely to inspire much confidence among the multitude. I think the next Prime Minister may well be Russell Norman in a Green led Socialist comglomalition.

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  29. tvb (4,417 comments) says:

    I hope John Key turns down the volume on Winston Peters. When I look at his caucus they all look like people National could do business with so John has to swallow a dead rat and move slowly towards Winston assuming Peters is showing signs of being constructive. The Maori Party without Sharples and Turia are finished and do not provide long term political stability for National. The long term future lies with some sort of merger between the Conservatives and NZF, possibly when Winston retires – gasp when??? Meanwhile stop all this talk about the Peters party dying out. As the political wing of Grey Power they have a bright future. Maybe John Banks could dissolve Act and lead the Conservatives. The liberal right has no future.

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  30. Kris K (3,570 comments) says:

    Talking of winners and losers, looks like non-Maori New Zealanders will be the BIG losers again in this next election cycle. In his victory speech last night John Key stated he would be asking the racist Maori Party to join him on the government benches.

    And absolutely no surprises here from this punter. The traitorous Key was always going to go into coalition with the Separatist Party. He set the precedent last election when he did the same without needing to. Key still has more treasonous policies he needs implement against non-Maori New Zealanders, and he needs the Maori Party there to justify those future betrayals. Mark my words, he hasn’t finished yet; if we thought it was bad last election cycle wait for what’s in store for us this round.

    Key should be hung, drawn, and quartered for the betrayals to date he has wrought on the New Zealand populace!

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  31. badmac (136 comments) says:

    I think you are all forgetting to praise one party.

    The Maori party. Yes racist party’s/seats/politics should be gone. But last night and this morning (The Nation and Marae), both its leaders sounded like pragmatic mature adults (as did Key and Steven Joyce). Most around them just continued to be politicians, but Both P&M spoke clearly and very well, they stated where they saw things going, today and this week, they indicated their preferences and policy planks, without demanding the boubles and will make a great moderators of National (with Dunne and Banks able to give support for some of the harder changes we need i.e. mixed ownership of SOE’s, money invested in critical infrastructure) and with their focus on bringing Maori out of (self inflicted – victim mentality) poverty, not by throwing money at them ah la Labour, but by grass roots change ie change 1 person, who changes 2, etc, I think we will have a great 3 years with stable progressive government and hopefully we can get NZ’s core back into order.

    On Act, I like many didn’t vote for them due to the polls showing Epsom to be too close and hence the risk of wasting my vote. I think the result is a good one. They need to get a charismatic leader who can harness the really good ideas of the team and rebuild a solid foundation going forward. Yes I think they can come back and be a coalition partner for National in 2014, if they can change and regain their focus around a great leader.

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  32. badmac (136 comments) says:

    Oh and another thought.

    I think yesterday and last night showed room for a new party:

    A new modern grouping in tune with were things are heading for younger people (as opposed to the old National/Labour of the last 100 years). A center right Green party (environment, sustainability, economics, business, minimalist laws and legislation, government out of peoples lives, teach people to fish type party). As Russell Norman said Greens are on the left of the sustainability axis, not the traditional left or right but on a new axis (although their social policies, and legislate everything attitude, give them away as a child of the old left), I think the Greens need a balancing party on the center right of the same axis. who knows maybe its the Main party in 20-20 years, as Labour and National fall by the wayside.

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  33. Richard Hurst (855 comments) says:

    In the wake of the NZF win the racing industry will be overjoyed, their boy is back and once more a generous donation will get them what they want. I also suspect parliamentary services have begun placing large orders of whisky with overseas suppliers in anticipation of Winston’s daily needs….

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  34. Someone Else (135 comments) says:

    John Banks thanked Act on Campus but those little pricks have been backstabbing him for months.

    Expect a major purge of the Act organisation. Only Brian Nicolle will be left. I hope the Nats’ new MPs don’t even think of hiring those smart arse toxic shits.

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  35. lofty (1,310 comments) says:

    Losers

    The people of NZ with that venal dwarf making it back into the house of representatives.

    1 thing is certain after tax in my life…Peters and his band of liars does not and never will represent me! any more than that bully boy mallard.

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  36. Shunda barunda (2,983 comments) says:

    And absolutely no surprises here from this punter. The traitorous Key was always going to go into coalition with the Separatist Party.

    Wow Kris K, why don’t you just say you hate niggers.

    The Maori party have been the most stable coalition party in NZ’s history – they deserve credit for that.

    They will also have valuable input into welfare reform and the issues facing their people, the fact that the extreme left hate them so much should indicate to rational people that they are probably doing a bloody good job.

    And traitorous?? are you talking about John Key or Don Brash??

    What would Jesus think Kris?, I am betting not much of your opinions.

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  37. laworder (292 comments) says:

    dime wrote

    Colin Craig needs to become a personality though. I dont think I have ever heard him speak.

    He spoke at the last Sensible Sentencing Trust victims conference, along with Chester Burrows from National and David Seymour from Act. Of the three Colin Craig demonstrated the best grasp of the issues and was most attuned to his audience. I was impressed, and believe he has potential to go far. It is a pity the MMP threshold is as high as it is, as he would make a good coalition partner for National in future.

    Regards
    Peter J
    Webmaster for http://www.sensiblesentencing.org.nz

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  38. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    I can imagine that Winston is sending a case of Champaign to Key this morning. Key was a huge contributor to NZ Firsts successful revival with his idiotic handling to the teapot saga. Sorry DPF but you are too sycophantic when it comes to Key to give him a kick in the butt when he deserves it.

    Congratulations to Key on the win. It did show the vulnerability that National have since they destroyed ACT back in 2005. Ironically it was Brash that masterminded that as National Party leader and then he finished the job for National by becoming Acts leader. Best hatchet job on a New Zealand political party bar none.

    Dunn was interesting, thought he might struggle but in the end he won comfortably.

    National won this campaign by creating fear of the international financial crisis and did that well. It will not work twice I suspect so they now need to deliver on the promises. Hopefully they can otherwise we will face a Labour/Green coalition

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  39. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    Someone Else (129) Says:
    November 27th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
    John Banks thanked Act on Campus but those little pricks have been backstabbing him for months.

    Expect a major purge of the Act organisation. Only Brian Nicolle will be left. I hope the Nats’ new MPs don’t even think of hiring those smart arse toxic shits.

    ACT is as dead as a doornail. It is hard to see them surviving with Banks at the helm as the reality is he is a Nat in both form and substance.

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  40. Alan Wilkinson (1,878 comments) says:

    tvb: “The liberal right has no future”. Well, it certainly isn’t John Banks. At the moment National has a monopoly for that vote. It has the major problem that for most people who want small government (both socially and economically), being in government is absolutely the last thing they want to do. So they get represented by weirdos.

    Whereas all the other political flavours are mad keen to control other peoples’ lives or finances and can’t wait to get into government to do so.

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  41. Someone Else (135 comments) says:

    Also, the biggest losers are the following Labour MPs (with their list positions):

    21 HUO, Raymond
    22 BEAUMONT, Carol
    23 DAVIS, Kelvin
    24 SEPULONI, Carmel
    25 BARKER, Rick
    27 NASH, Stuart
    29 BURNS, Brendon (currently in draw for Christchurch Central)
    34 CHADWICK, Steve (Stephanie)

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  42. Nick K (1,243 comments) says:

    LOSER: The centre right. Wake up people. This is MMP and there is a 1 vote majority. The right lost 2-3 seats in this election. That’s how the centre right should be approaching it, rather than just through FPP goggles and “National won”. Because actually, National lost this election. And Key & Joyce know it.

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  43. Someone Else (135 comments) says:

    The other thing is that National only added 2 MPs whereas Act lost 4 MPs. That is hardly a win to skite about.

    Now you have a decent opposition with Winston bringing life back to the House. It will be more fun with him. (As much as the Nats will smugly try to smear him.)

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  44. IHStewart (388 comments) says:

    Clare Curran springs to mind as one of the nights biggest losers Ele at Home Paddock

    http://homepaddock.wordpress.com/2011/11/27/provinces-still-blue-minus-one-updated/#comments

    points out the unbloody believable. National won Dunedin.

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  45. Keeping Stock (10,337 comments) says:

    Are you ready for a day in Court DPF? Now that he’s back on the public purse, Winston’s going to sue you! Thank goodness I wasn’t blogging on Friday afternoon when this story broke :-)

    http://newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1.asp?storyID=209815

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  46. chiz (1,144 comments) says:

    DPF:Winston Peters. Made the 5% threshold with room to spare

    Meanwhile, TV2 are showing Zombieland tonight.

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  47. badmac (136 comments) says:

    I think from my quick look at the 2008 versus 2011 results, that the National vote stayed home.

    It looks like the Greens mobilised their normally “to busy” student voters well.
    Labour seems to have drive all of their 27% supporters to the polls to ensure they didn’t get 20%.

    But National voters seem to have seen the polls and gone, ok its already decided and not bothered to get out and vote.

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  48. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    24 SEPULONI, Carmel – BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Im sure the private sector will snap her up haha

    Sad reality, their will be some public sector donut for her :( dammit.

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  49. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    National won this campaign by creating fear of the international financial crisis

    I rather thought Goff threw it away by ignoring the financial crisis.

    The biggest financial meltdown for generations, the Euro implosion plus the Chch earthquake, and Goff complains about more being being on benefit etc. He looked like a charlatan or a complete bloody child.

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  50. Kris K (3,570 comments) says:

    Shunda barunda @ 3:05 pm,

    The usual halfwit, miss-the-point-entirely comment we’ve come to love from this commenter. About as morally confused and compromised as many of the other faux right-wingers around the pseudo ‘right-wing’ NZ blogosphere.

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  51. Portia (175 comments) says:

    I raised this issue on the Specials thread but more traffic here –

    Assuming that Lockwood is going to continue as Speaker, then National has one less seat to play with. So if they end up with 59 seats after the Specials, then even Act and UF won’t give them a majority. And even on current scores, they sneak in by a whisker. Especially as Maori Party support isn’t guaranteed yet.

    All it would take is for scandal/death/serious illness to claim one of their support partners and National could find the Term tough going.

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  52. Pharmachick (235 comments) says:

    Portia, the Speaker is able to vote so it doesn’t matter.

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  53. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    I was not sure about Colin Craig. However, given the comments made about the man by certain individuals in this thread I think I can now safely assume that Craig and the Conservatives are no hoper’s.

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  54. Manolo (13,746 comments) says:

    The Nationals, basically just Labour with a slightly less red hue …

    Not without reason Key’s party is called Labour lite.

    Without much to distinguish it from Labour, its odious predecessor, today’s National Party is miles away from its founding principles, and inhabited by wimps, yes-men, spin-doctors and blind followers.

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  55. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    @big bruv 12:45 pm

    Losing Paul Quinn is no big deal, the man is a moron.

    We don’t agree on much, BB, but on that we do agree. National’s equivalent of Judith Tizard. Nats will really be hoping no list MPs have to resign this term.

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  56. pq (728 comments) says:

    I think, I know that Farrar has been a significant part of the hysteria against Winston Peters.
    Farrar’s normal defence against the actual policy which Peters presented was ignore Peters, and failing that to disparage and sneer, right till the time the booths opened.
    Farrar has been so consistently hostile to Peters that he is now in my opinion doubtful as a political commenter.

    Things will pan out where Peters may lead achieve the Assets sales back down.

    peterquixote

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  57. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    PQ

    No ones selling any assets FFS.
    Being invited to own a part share in a successful business is not owning the business.

    The elections over you can stop lying

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  58. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Please all sit down and have a weee cry for this lady.

    Chadwick gutted, will learn Te Reo

    Sunday, 27, Nov, 2011 4:32PM

    Gutted is how former Labour MP Steve Chadwick feels after losing her parliamentary seat of twelve years.

    Rotorua-based list MP Chadwick is too far down the Labour list to regain her seat.

    Steve Chadwick says while she is rather disappointed she has accepted it is what the voters wanted.

    She says she enjoyed helping everybody in the community but the community voted for this result, so they have got who they will have to work with.

    Steve Chadwick says now her parliamentary career has come to an end she hopes to spend more time with her family and learn Te Reo.

    Bhahahahahahahahhahah and bhahahahahahaha and bhaaaaaaaa. The trough has got one end.

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  59. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    Toad

    I suspect we also agree that as bad as Tizard and Quinn are they are both outstanding MP’s when compared to that certifiable idiot Delahunty.

    BTW Toad, I have to say well done again when it comes to the Green party tactic of locking away your morons for the month prior to the election. You used to do it with Bradford and Locke and it seems you now do the same with that parasite Delahunty.

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  60. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Bruv: Have you actually met Mr Craig? While he was obviously more than a little optimistic, getting more than twice ACT’s party vote after only existing as a party for three months is no mean achievement….in my few dealings with the man I have found him impressive, albeit with a lot to learn about how the brutal game that is NZ politics works….and as for being some sort of fundy Christian nut, I see absolutely no evidence of that….unless having a compassionate attitude to human frailties makes him a fundy nut…

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  61. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Manolo (5,454) Says:
    November 27th, 2011 at 4:30 pm

    The Nationals, basically just Labour with a slightly less red hue …

    Not without reason Key’s party is called Labour lite.

    Without much to distinguish it from Labour, its odious predecessor, today’s National Party is miles away from its founding principles, and inhabited by wimps, yes-men, spin-doctors and blind followers.

    And a gaggle of lawtyers. Oh the same thing ! sorry.

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  62. Dave Mann (1,218 comments) says:

    Loser: the country formerly known as New Zealand, as billions of dollars’ worth of state assets are transferred to maori ownership to buy their support for the next three years…. Oh happy days….

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  63. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    dime: if the repulsive Sepuloni can get some government sinecure after being in opposition one term, how do I go about getting mine?

    She should never have made that odious little man Cosgrove her role model….how sad to think anyone would see that little dissembling swine as someone to look up to….difficult as that is in every sense….

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  64. RandySavage (222 comments) says:

    have to smile at David Garrett casting aspersions on other MPs. Pull your head in mate

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  65. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    David Garrett

    I am sure that Mr Craig is a very nice man, my comments were more to do with the type of people he is likely to attract.

    I agree with you re Sepuloni, it is rare that I take enjoyment from other peoples misfortunes however in her case (and that of the equally odious Beaumont) I will make an exception.

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  66. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    Dunedin is clearly a multi party city.

    Four MPs from three parties:
    – David Clark (Labour, Dunedin North)
    – Clare Curran (Labour, Dunedin South)
    – Michael Woodhouse (National list)
    – Metiria Turei (Green list).

    Total Dunedin electorate party votes:
    – National 21,466
    – Labour 20,292
    – Greens 10,142
    – NZ First 3,931

    It’s important Dunedin is represented by a strong cross party lobby.

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  67. EverlastingFire (286 comments) says:

    It’s disappointing for ACT. They were only really worth saving if Don Brash was able to make it in, otherwise the seat might as well have gone to Goldsmith.

    Now that we’re stuck with Peters, I hope that he’ll at least make a lot of noise about Key and the Maori Party’s ideas to advance separatism and racial privilege. Key needs to stay accountable for all their actions.

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  68. Ross12 (1,425 comments) says:

    Barry Soper could almost be called “loser” in the election–heard on Sky News describing the incoming Government a manufactured Govt. because of Act and UF being involved. What hell would it have been if the left got form the Government ?? Some of these media people have lost plot with their cooments.

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  69. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    Mr Garrett – I hop eyou are right and the slug gets nothing. Thanks for your thoughts on Colin Craig too.

    I think we need to embrace the conservative party. Personally im a social liberal (imagine making hookers illegal again??), but we need allies. And there is obviously a half decent support base there.

    then again, i am fucking hammered :)

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  70. BlairM (2,339 comments) says:

    I am left to repeat my assertion that having ACT supporting free market principles in parliament is like having the Italians on your side in a World War: Completely inept, fight all the wrong battles, fight them badly, have to be rescued by the dominant power, and afterwards make claims to territory they didn’t really earn. There needs to be some deep thinking going on.

    I’ve seen a few fools on Facebook and other places blame Heather Roy for ACT’s demise (!), which is giving her far FAR too much credit. NOBODY in ACT is entirely without blame for what has happened. People used to vote for ACT because they were principled and stood for strong principles. Since 2002 however, egos have got in the way, and the principles have eroded, and the voters have disappeared as a result.

    It pisses me off that the Hide sycophants are pointing fingers everywhere else, because he was the worst of the lot in that regard. Again, not just him, nobody in ACT looks good. Everyone played their part, because they lost sight of the principles, and thought they were more important than they were.

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  71. liz_shaw (24 comments) says:

    No it doesn’t actually. Only 65% of eligible voters did which takes National’s support to 33% overall. Act have a future but only with the likes of David Seymour. Banks won’t be Act’s leader long term. Boscawen’s departure wasn’t a good thing for Act.

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  72. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    BlairM,

    Rodney was one of a limited few who could articulate the moral imperative of limited government and the free market. He’s one of the good guys. He’d always get my vote.

    That’s what makes the Banks thing such a disaster. To replace Rodney with that fucking tosspot.

    Brash is a fine man with fine principles, but he must feel like Alec Guinness at the end of The Bridge on the River Kwai: “What have I done?”

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  73. Nostalgia-NZ (5,193 comments) says:

    One less seat and there would have been a 6 week hui going on before a Government would have been formed. There may have been a provisional agreement to support National after election night but the cost would have been greater if the majority had needed to include the MP. It’s a thin win folks. National needed the MP to fold, that they’ve survived is probably not in Nationals long term interests. If they produce under this Government that will likely win more them seats next time, we could be seeing a shade shift in the National party. It could either be a new era of politics confirmed, or National feeding the beast that may yet eat them. Time to wrap Banks and Dunne in cotton wool, on life-support even.
    Also the question is raised did Winston outflank JK and what will the longer term produce having NZF back in Parliament, even with Williams attached.
    Plenty for the other parties to achieve in the next 3 years but the Jury is out on how it could all be stitched together for National’s benefit again – perhaps a bridge too far.

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  74. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Randy whoever you are: I wasnt “casting aspersions”…Sepuloni was an overweight slob who took her cues from Cosgrove…everyone knows about my wrongdoing…not everyone knows about those two…readers can make up their own minds….and unlike you, everyone here knows who I am….

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  75. wreck1080 (3,905 comments) says:

    A vote for the Conservative party was a vote for labour, if I read this right.

    This is the bad thing with MMP, many of the 2.7% who voted Conservative party would have been disgusted had national lost because their vote was basically wasted.

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  76. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    Cosgrove is a sick puppy

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  77. Nostalgia-NZ (5,193 comments) says:

    Maybe he never got his parvo shots.

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  78. BlairM (2,339 comments) says:

    Rodney was one of a limited few who could articulate the moral imperative of limited government and the free market. He’s one of the good guys. He’d always get my vote.

    Well you are a fool. Hide was never about principles, he was about Rodney Hide. He was a barefaced liar. He lied to me, he lied to his colleagues, and whatever he articulated, his actions were different. He was not a leader in any sense. Ask any ACT MP from the past whether they respect Rodney Hide. There’s your answer as to the character of the man. So many big egos in such a small party, and now it is dead. But even now these people have no understanding of why they lost.

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  79. PaulL (5,981 comments) says:

    big loser: centre right. National-led govt has a 1 vote majority, zero vote majority with a speaker. So they’ll have to give another party something to get a speaker.

    Idiots: those who think that Banks in Epsom is a bad thing. Without him, the Centre Right wouldn’t have a majority. Sure, he’s an idiot, and he and Brash have finished the job of destroying the ACT party, but if they’d managed to lose Epsom as well we’d all be in the poo.

    Media: stupid polls saying Banks couldn’t win Epsom. Same as the polls last time for Rodney. Which pushed down ACT’s vote. Where were the same polls saying Winston couldn’t get home and pushing down his vote?

    NZ: Winston’s back. Sigh. Still, no real show he’ll get any power this time around. But he’ll be in a position to make a play for power next election. And really, the Maori seats voted so heavily for NZ First? Based on what?

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  80. EverlastingFire (286 comments) says:

    As per BlairM’s request: David Garrett, do you respect Rodney Hide? :D

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  81. Nick K (1,243 comments) says:

    Blair, only yesterday we had proof that people in this country could not give a feck about principles when casting their vote.

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  82. Monique Watson (1,062 comments) says:

    I’m waiting for the new ipredict stock: chances of Winston suing DPF over the “allegations” about Peters’ candidacy. Check out ole crinkly eyes in the Newstalk ZB link.Once that story gets some coverage do you think those who voted NZF will give themselves a slap upside the head?
    Good to see the abortion queen SC is gone. That is from a strategy point of view mainly as I’m a little bit prochoice “bwahahahahahaha”, (ducks for cover from both sides).
    But really, way to redefine your party image after years of Feminazidom, to put up that bill early in the term.

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  83. Nostalgia-NZ (5,193 comments) says:

    Question?
    Why is John Banks acting like the loyal-servant, puppy dog?
    Wouldn’t be for the money, that’s for sure.

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  84. BlairM (2,339 comments) says:

    Nick K – that’s simply the soft bigotry of low expectations – though I would argue that only NZ First managed to get votes despite their lack of principles. National Labour and the Greens, who got nearly nine out of ten of the votes available, were all pretty consistent in their beliefs, however flawed. ACT IS principles, take them away in favour of expediency, and ACT has no reason to exist and no reason for anyone to vote for them.

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  85. Nostalgia-NZ (5,193 comments) says:

    So if Act was deconstructed, the vote doesn’t appear to have gone to National. There are further dilutions to the National cause, the first being (not my opinion, but merely an observation,) strengthening the Maori Party while relying on a potential explosive John Banks and the reliable and steady Peter Dunne. Are National courting too many, or the wrong coalition partners, probably.

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  86. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    Maximum credit to the MSM, in particularly the Herald and TV3, in this election campaign. They pulled out all the stops to destroy Act, get Winston First back in and prevent National getting an absolute majority and they did most of that except the first – they’ll have to make do with mortally wounded instead. I now never want to hear the phrase “teapot tape” ever again, especially not from a journalist.

    I still don’t understand why 55,000 people wasted their vote by going Conservative too.

    Yeah, sure, the Greens have 13 MPs but if the last three years is any indication most of them will be completely useless and won’t be returned in 2014.

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  87. Other_Andy (2,676 comments) says:

    @HD
    About the MSM…. absolutely right.
    The Herald and TV3 have always been biased but…
    This time they did not even pretend to be impartial.
    They should have been made to register as a third party promoter.

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  88. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Everlasting Fire: As it happens, yes I do…the man is an erratic and flawed genius, but a genius never the less…although I am sure he – like all of us – would have done things differently with the perfect understanding that hindsight brings…

    I think he would now agree that he abandoned me too easily when the affidavit issue hit the headlines…but even without that, time has proved that he was right to conclude that the passport scandal of 27 years ago was not survivable….the f…ers in the media are STILL on about it FFS, and I have been gone more than a year….Braunias from Metro was out here just law week among the cows sniffing about trying to get more dirt on me ….

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  89. Muzza M (291 comments) says:

    That thieving, lying, fucking toe-rag Peters back in Government. Go on Winnie threaten to sue me as well. I’ll use the defence of honest opinion, something very foreign to you. To think I once voted for your party, that is until you got poisoned by the billious bitch.

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  90. kiwi in america (2,441 comments) says:

    Random observations of campaign 2011
    * The MSM (particularly TV3, some at the Herald and the SST) were obsessed with ensuring the grand coalition of the left. Helping Winston across the 5% threshold was a key component of this strategy as was not really probing the Greens too hard on how much the leadership knew about the vandalized signs. Peters was rising in the polls before the teacup tapes saga sufficient for the media to include him in the minor leader’s debate. He fed off media attention from that and had the cup of tea meeting not been taped, the cacophony of media noise around Winston likely would’ve seen him across the line. The tapes probably gave him an extra 2% so it would’ve been a close run thing – we’ll never know but it was the pivotal point in the NZ1 campaign. National actually went up after Key’s reaction to the media obsession but the reality is they won that battle but lost the war against Winston.
    * Election night turnout was 6% down on 08. Without seeing the specials we won’t know who was hurt the most but I suspect it will be shared equally between National and Labour. Key’s tactics in the dying days was designed around turning out the National vote by raising the spectre of the hydra headed left wing monster and we came pretty darn close to that scenario.
    * Based on election night results none of the major pollsters had the party vote mix right but the closest was the One News/Colmar Brunton. The top 5 averages/election night (difference + being oversampled and – being undersampled) were as follows: Nats 51/48 (+3), Lab 26.3/27.1 (-0.8), Greens 12.3/10.6 (+1.7), NZ1 4.6/6/6 (-2.0), ACT 1.34/1.1 (+0.24), Cons 1.8/2.8 (-1.0). Nats were oversampled 6% (almost double the oversample in 08), Lab undersampled 3% (versus bang on in 08), Greens over by 14% about the same as 08, ACT over by 18% versus 24% undersampled in 08, NZ1 hugely undersampled by 43% vs only 14% under in 08 and the Conservatives a whopping 100% undersampled (only polled by 3 of the big 5).
    * 2 major strategic voting blunders by Labour: allowing Tirikatane-Sullivan to win Te Tai Tonga. A Maori Party win there would’ve increased the overhang to 2 making for a CR/CL tie on the night (counting the MP as CL). Would’ve given the MP the balance of power. Dog whistling to Labour voters that it was OK to vote for Peters for the party vote. Very poor tactic in an MMP environment.
    * Key spoke the truth to Banks at Café Urban. Brash was toast – his poor retail politicking skills led to an abysmal campaign even allowing for media bias and could not overcome the perception amongst many on the right that ACT’s circular firing squad and subsequent Brash coup in 2010/11 inflicted mortal wounds. Banks was pretty much the only person for whom Epsom National voters could’ve held their nose and voted for. He will be a reliable partner for Key.
    * Cameron Slater has continuously berated Key for not backing change from MMP more aggressively. Key did back change (and SM) but even if he’d been more vocal sooner the likely margin over change was too high for just the PM to overcome. The problems with MMP are more an inside the beltway political junkies issue and the niceties of SM vs say STV (the thinking person’s PR) are lost on the average voter. The fact that FPP was the most popular change option shows that people opt for familiarity. The problems with MMP (which are many) have never risen to a level that gave the change campaign wheels.
    * The presence of Winston Peters in the next Parliament will make National’s re-election in 2014 more difficult. By staying out of government (and potentially compromising scandals that he gets embroiled in), Peters has the perfect platform for demagoguery. Key will never share power with him (rightly so) and so National has to be able to win again on the basis of the positive economic benefits of its policy mix. If there are few tangible improvements in key economic indicators they will be toast. Voters gave Key the benefit of the doubt this time around because of the GFC and the Chch earthquakes. He will not be able to hide behind them in 2014. The Nats will also need to improve their GOTV efforts. He also had the benefit of a dispirited opposition led by a gafe prone leader. By 2014 Labour will likely be more rejuvenated.
    * The extent to which Labour can rebuild and come back will depend on its new leader. IMO only Shearer represents a break from the union dominated past. He is a technocrat with sufficient intellectual horsepower to face down the ideological impulses of the core union/gay/feminist constituency. Only 50/50 chance he’ll be elected or succeed in this task.
    * The Maori Party will continue trying to get as much from National as they can (eg iwi allocation of mixed ownership selldown) but unless Turia/Sharples can properly groom their successors, they will sadly be subsumed by Mana and Labour.
    * Nice to see the radical left is only 1% of the voting population. The Christian right (represented by Colin Craig’s Conservatives) have never been able to unite under one stable banner to ever get over 5% and I don’t see that happening even though Craig is their most voter friendly face to date.

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  91. Manolo (13,746 comments) says:

    The Greens have 13 MPs but if the last three years is any indication most of them will be completely useless and won’t be returned in 2014.

    I wish I could agree with you, but unfortunately I cannot.

    The number of gullible people appears to be increasing. What did the Luddites achieve during the last term? Little, very little. And they have been rewarded with a higher tally of votes. Sadly, expect this dismal trend to continue.

    The attraction of the Greens is in their name, their label, which appeals to the idealistic, naive and politically illiterate types. On the other hand, the Green policies show the party’s deep isolationist and socialist streak.

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  92. Manolo (13,746 comments) says:

    The racists are saying: We want more! http://msn.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10769277

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  93. RRM (9,917 comments) says:

    Nobody likes ACT, everybody hates ACT
    F#@! off down the garden John and eat worms
    Long thin slimy ones, short fat fuzzy ones
    Itsy, bitsy, fuzzy, wuzzy worms

    Long thin slimy ones slip down easily
    just like ACT’s popularity
    Short fat fuzzy ones stick to your teeth a bit
    And the juice goes (slurping noise) down your throat

    First you bite the heads off,
    Then you suck the guts out.
    Then throw the rest of the rich prick party away.
    Nobody knows how ACT survives
    On worms three times a day!

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  94. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,752 comments) says:

    John Banks certainly is a winner. The result has turned out magic for him. Three years as a cabinet minister.

    What exactly will Labour’s much diminished cohort be doing again?

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  95. Elaycee (4,392 comments) says:

    One of the biggest losers has to be the media.

    Despite the very best efforts of TV3 / The NZ Herald / Sainsbury on TV1 / Soper on NewstalkZB etc, their beloved Labour party didn’t make the grade. But it wasn’t from a lack of trying on their part. Their left wing bias was blatant and has destroyed the myth that was media neutrality.

    Another loser was Trevor Mallard – his campaign based on negativity / personal attacks / outright lies, fell on deaf ears. The push for Labour voters to use their party vote tactically in some electorates, was another cock up – in fact, sufficient Labour voters switched their party vote to NZF that they have ended up with 8 MPs – what a great idea that was!

    The Gweens will be remembered for a few things – their acts of vandalism against competitor billboards (the revelations still to come about who was actually involved etc) / and the total absence of their female co-leader from the hustings. The Gweens are destined to remain orphans in parliamant – no-one wants them. In fact, they seem to be consigned to a life on the opposition benches.

    Dunne – winner. Banks – winner. Totally predictable results given the evidence of tactical nous within Epsom and Ohariu.

    And the PM and National – clear winners. The biggest majority ever under the MMP system. :D

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  96. Freckles (13 comments) says:

    Re: wat dabney’s comment: “I rather thought Goff threw it away by ignoring the financial crisis.”
    Labour’s campaign was strange – they played a ‘presidential’ style but hid their ‘president’. You didn’t SEE Goff but he was the only one who ever spoke on anything (selected topics). National, by contrast, put up a range of spokespeople on a range of issues – which gave a much better impression of a ‘team’ of people who know what they’re doing.

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  97. KevinH (1,227 comments) says:

    Another big loser on the night was the Mana Party coalition. Hone Harawira may have won TeTai Tokerau but his party depite the last minute theatrics yielded only 1% of the party vote. On the basis of that it would be fair to say that the grouping of John Minto, Sue Bradford and Annette Sykes have fired their last shots which were fizzers.What now for the far left?
    With the exception of the Greens the left took a thrashing this time round. Depite David Parkers and David Shearers’ rhetoric the left has being mangled, disorganised and now disconsolate, there were opportunities there for them but all and sundry failed to capitalise on them.

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  98. Toa Greening (20 comments) says:

    With regards to the large shift of Canterbury voters to National, I wonder how much the $1.7B bail out of South Canterbury Finance had to play in the big shift of voters. Thats over 30,000 investors which includes, individuals, couples, family trusts and businesses. I suspect this had a significant role in the South Island than anyone is prepared to admitt.

    Winners are National for conveniently ignoring advice from the SFO (of course they new about the dealings), bailing out SCF (for a paltry $1.7B of borrowings) and gaining all those greatfull voters.

    Is SCF worth anything these days, perhaps the NATs should sell it? Oh yes I forget they only sell assets which generate revenue.

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  99. RandySavage (222 comments) says:

    Garrett youre one of the worst things to happen to New Zealand politics. Youre now a sad little man scraping the barrel of filth and slander that is this blog, reduced to making vapid commments about a labor member being overweight.

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  100. Richard29 (377 comments) says:

    “John Key. Key has broken his own record for the highest party vote percentage achieved under MMP. Governments normally lose support, not gain it. The Clark Government did increase support in 2002 by 2% but this was really just picking up some of the Alliance vote which had been 7% and collapsed.”

    Act lost 4 seats National Gained two (before specials). All Key did was pick up half of the remnants of an imploding Act party.

    On election night 2008 National had 58 seats plus 6 for their coalition partners giving them a 64 seat majority in a 122 seat parliament.

    The likely outcome of this election (after specials) is 59 seats plus two from coalition partners giving them 61 seats in a 121 seat parliament – the thinnest possible majority.

    JK is in big trouble in 2014 – he’s about to roll out three years of not particularly popular policies, theres a chance that public opinion may shift over asset sales but it’ll still hurt him a bit, and there will be a natural fatigue with him as a leader, he’s likely to lose seats next election. National has no more coalition partners left to consume – everything is going to hinge on the relaunch of the Act party – the big hope for them is a rebrand as a proper liberal party that there is definitely an audience for – only problem is their sole MP is social conservative. If they choose to rebrand as a social conservative party they could combine with Colin Craig’s Christian Crowd, but the moment they position themselves as Nationals main coalition partner it’ll scare the liberals out of National and back to Labour.

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