Nate Silver’s mid terms model
Nate Silver has launched his prediction model for the US mid-terms.
In the House have forecasts an 87% probability the Democrats take the House, with an average outcome of 233 seats to 202.
In the Senate it is closer, but the Democrats slightly ahead with a 56% probability the Democrats gain control of the Senate by 51 seats to 49.
He has the Democrats winning Ohio, Texas, Michigan and Maine, with the odds for each being:
- Ohio 58%
- Taxes 60%
- Michigan 69%
- Maine 70%
Will be interesting to see how they change over time.