Economics for Bloggers

December 1st, 2011 at 2:49 pm by David Farrar

blogs at The Visible Hand in Economics. He works professionally as an economist.

Matt is providing free briefings for the blogging community on the international and domestic economic situation. It’s a great opportunity to learn a bit more about what is happening. Matt will cover:

  • An overview of what’s going on in Europe, what we need to keep an eye out for, and how it will impact on New Zealand generally,
  • A discussion of “rebalancing” in New Zealand,
  • What’s going on with food prices and what it means for us,
  • The growing problems in the labour market,
  • A social “minimum income”.

There’s also a general Q+A at the end. There are presentations in Auckland and Wellington. Details are:

Auckland – Friday December 2, 3pm

Meet at MORE FM reception on Level 2, 239 Ponsonby Rd.

Wellington – Saturday December 10, 12pm

 Meet outside 109 Featherston St.

I hope to make the Wellington one. Should be very useful and informative.

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13 Responses to “Economics for Bloggers”

  1. Johnboy (16,994 comments) says:

    ‘A discussion of “rebalancing” in New Zealand,’

    Amazing. I was just discussing that with Murray on the previous thread. :)

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  2. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Nah, the best economic blog in the country is Not PC blog. Austrian economics that’s what he’s talking about. All the problems that we face today, he (& other Austrian economics followers) anticipated those. Where were all the mainstream economists? They all talked nonsense (ie, bailouts, economic stimulants, blah, blah, blah…).

    I urge anyone who wants to be informed in economics, head over to Not PC. You will get the best economic philosophies there.

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  3. JamesS (352 comments) says:

    What does ‘rebalancing’ NZ mean?

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  4. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    In August 2009 Matt Nolan & Infometrics said the following: NZ house prices to rise 24% in next 3 years.

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  5. swan (665 comments) says:

    Matt is a very cerebral, apolitical (as best I can tell) economics blogger and I have learnt a lot following his blog. He is generally not one to push a particular policy prescription, but instead is interested in framing policy so that society and governments can make rational policy desicions. So I’d recommend it. Might try to make it myself if I can sneak away from work.

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  6. DT (104 comments) says:

    Falafulu Fisi: I’m pretty sure (certain) that Matt doesn’t always 100% personally agree with every forecast he contributes to.

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  7. Jimbob (641 comments) says:

    Todays credit problems were telegraphed many years ago, and not by economists. Economists are good at extrapolating the past into the future in a linear fashion. You need to look elsewhere for your forecasts.

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  8. swan (665 comments) says:

    Who do you suggest Jimbob?

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  9. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    You can’t forecast a non-equilibrium complex system such as an economy by using equilibrium theories. That’s why its always (or almost) wrong (most of the times). Look no further than forecasters at the Treasury. Anyone who’s paying someone else to do forecasting of future events is simply wasting his money. I have developed/implemented various (and used many) forecasting algorithms over the last few years and my list is still growing (due to new published algorithms that keep appearing in various literatures) and I’m still not a millionaire yet. The reason is, an economic system is never in equilibrium. I use Kalman Filter (and various extensions), DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium), ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system), GARCH (and its various extensions), Wavelet, ANN (Artificial Neural Network), ICA (independent component analysis), WNN (Wavelet Neural Network), ARMAX (ARMA Exogenous), VAR (Vector autoregression), SVM (Support Vector Machine) and many more.

    So, I myself do develop useless forecasting models. The end user is responsible for their use. Don’t make a loss in the financial markets then blame Falafulu’s models. I don’t advise anybody in contrast to other professional economists who act like some kind of Rasputin. I simply make a disclaimer and tell users to use the models at their own risks.

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  10. Jimbob (641 comments) says:

    swan.
    You need to look overseas for your information. The US has quite a few very learned analysts’. A few names are Cashin, Prechter, Roubini, Mauldin, to name a few in no particular order.
    Greenspan in 2001-2002 reduced interest rates to zero to starve off a credit market collapse, it lasted till 2007, now Bernanke is at it again. Only this time the credit mountain is much larger with future borrowings for nice western lifestyle unsustainable. Some adjustments are going to be made worldwide. A book by John Mauldin called “Endgame”, would be good place to start to see where the financial will probably end up.

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  11. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Alan Greenspan, the chairman of America’s Federal Reserve, once remarked: forecasting exchange rates has a success rate no better than that of forecasting the outcome of a coin toss.

    So, Mr Greenspan knew exactly of what is wrong with the business of economic forecasting.

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  12. swan (665 comments) says:

    Jimbob,

    Havent heard of the others, but I am pretty sure Roubini is an economist. Anyway, as Falafulu says, an economist telling you to take their forecasts at face value is lying to you. Reality is always overtaken by events.

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  13. Paul Walker (50 comments) says:

    I always think a couple of things should be kept in mind when talking about economics. 1) 99% of economics has nothing to do with forecasting and 2) if forecasting is so bad, why do people pay so much to get said forecasts?

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