July public polls

August 12th, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

julpolls

Have published the monthly newsletter summarising the public . Labour’s trend continues. The executive summary is:

There were six political polls in July – two Roy Morgans, a One News Colmar Brunton, a 3 News Reid Research, a Herald DigiPoll and a Fairfax Ipsos.

The average of the public polls has National 25% ahead of Labour in July, up 2% from June and up 11% from April. The current seat projection is centre-right 68 seats, centre-left 52 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia Tony Abbott’s net approval rating has risen 14% in the wake of the shooting down of MH370.

In the United States the country direction falls to a massive net -40%. 

In the UK David Cameron’s ratings are improving, as is the contry direction. Scottish independence polls show the no vote ahead by 5% to 14% with an average 9% gap.

In Canada the Liberals have opened up a large lead over the Conservatives, and would be able to form a minority government on current polls.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment, head of government and opposition leader approval sentiment for the five countries. 

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on fat tax, health food ratings, school policies, the man apology, the Mana/Internet party plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

 This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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22 Responses to “July public polls”

  1. Colville (2,268 comments) says:

    That is a fantastic looking trend for Labour under Cun*life’s reign, Sptember ’13.
    Down down and down some more ;-)

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  2. virtualmark (1,523 comments) says:

    My take is the big question will be can Winnie get NZ First above 5%.

    Ordinarily he can pull a rabbit of an issue out of his hat in the last few weeks, that rallies the grumpy and permanently disaffected to vote for Winston so he can keep the bastards honest booze up each morning on the taxpayer. a la Winston’s great feigned indignation about the “cup of tea” conversation in 2011.

    But this time round Winston is going to struggle to get media attention, given the media seem infatuated with Dotcom and the Internet-Mana circus. And Colin Craig is carving off some of the old and bewildered voters who were Winston’s natural constituency.

    But whether Winston gets over 5% or not may well swing the entire election result for National or for Labour. I’ll be a very happy man if he gets 4.9%.

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  3. flipper (4,060 comments) says:

    40 days to go, and much can happen , but the trend seems to be positive for stable Nats led Government.

    Have Pundit done their’s yet?? Last I saw was July21.

    The James / Radio NZ nonsense is directly opposite Curia’s

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  4. IGM (392 comments) says:

    flipper: Anything political involving James will, whether fact or not, be given a left-wing slant. That being the reason he is no longer with “NBR”. They operate on fact not political fantasies.

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  5. Rich Prick (1,701 comments) says:

    With all that “vote positive” stuff going on, I think Labour hitting 25% is quite possible.

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  6. KiwiGreg (3,255 comments) says:

    Just need Hone not to win TTT (and ideally IMP get 4.5% of the vote), Winston First to get under 5% and Act to win Epsom. What could possibly go wrong?

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  7. thePeoplesFlag (245 comments) says:

    MH370 was shot down?

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  8. Colville (2,268 comments) says:

    If Labour continue to slide down the Winston will get over 5% as those voters need to vote for someone and its unlikely they will go Nats way, fair call tho Cons will hoover up as many as Winnie.

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  9. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    National and all it’s current support parties are polling lower than they were at the same stage in 2011.
    They will need additional support.
    The Conservatives are polling higher than they were in 2011.

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  10. Rick Rowling (813 comments) says:

    The “not sure”s are running a mile from anyone who might join up with Kim Dotcom

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  11. Tarquin North (297 comments) says:

    I’m not worried about labour, I just want to see Hone and his circle of hangers on gone. He said he didn’t want the holiday highway in the Herald this morning. That is not a good idea if he wants to keep his job. He reckons the money should be spent on child poverty, the only children he has ever done anything for share his surname. I have a feeling the voters of TTT are on to him this time around. Bringing up child poverty is not vote winner when you look at what he’s achieved in the last 3 years. If there is child poverty here in the North it’s caused by the parents choices not government policy.

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  12. Huevon (222 comments) says:

    A solid correlation between Labour’s declining poll resuts and the increased nastiness on the Left. Def noticed this on my facebook. My leftie friends/family have been going full batshit in recent days….

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  13. Evadne (88 comments) says:

    Why is People’s Flag getting so many down votes? Reflex? On this occasion he is actually making a good and valid point: MH 370 was the one that went missing. MH 17 is the flight that was shot down, and is likely affecting Abbott’s popularity.

    I think the quoted newsletter needs proof reading.

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  14. flash2846 (284 comments) says:

    Hey folks, remember the polls referred to were all taken before Labour and Greens latest round of election bribes. Sadly there will be what will seem a dramatic turnaround. I expect Labour 30% and Greens 15% for August. National are of course launching their campaign the last week in August so fingers crossed.

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  15. Neil (586 comments) says:

    Two months out from an election is usually a very good guide to the actual result. Hence Curia’s figure is probably about right. The trend is what counts.
    What we deal with during the campaign are up and down swings which are probably not that great
    Anecdotally, there is no great clamour in the voters for a change. You usually can get that mood for change feeling when talking to people. There is no MAJOR reason for the Key government to be thrown out.
    The noise from the left is an effort to get traction for their views. Part of that is the definite effort to take down Key. That is the major goal of the left- if they take Key down then the Left are 80% there in winning the election.
    Also remember, National have studiously avoided bringing out their attack weapons. Weariness with the election campaign will soon settle in with Labour etc with their long campaign. When National attacks look for tightly focussed analysis of the opposition parties weaknesses- lack of unity,spending too much, nastiness, etc.
    From my viewpoint ,there is a lot of negativity towards Dot Com,Harre and Cunliffe.

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  16. georgebolwing (853 comments) says:

    The longer the campaign goes on, the more confident I am of a MMP-style landslide for National (i.e. National will have just enough seats to govern in its own right).

    I have two reasons for believing this:

    a) all the polls shows that the vast majority of people think that New Zealand is heading in the right direction and, especially compared to Australia, there is growing evidence to support this view. In other words, people think that things are good and getting better. The more the opposition parties say things are bad and getting worse, the more they look out of touch with reality and, importantly, the more they are telling the vast majority of New Zealanders they are wrong. This is not the way to win a popularity contest.

    b) the alternative is too awful to contemplate. A Labour/GIMP government would clearly not be stable. The more we see the reality of what that would be, the more are marginal National voters likely to decide that their vote does, indeed, count. Kim Dotcom and Hone and the best “get out the vote” tool National has.

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  17. Andrew (84 comments) says:

    Colmar Brunton have published a vote switching analysis, if anyone is interested.

    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/vote-switching-analysis-2014

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  18. Pete George (23,560 comments) says:

    There’s a danger with putting too much weight on apparent chart trends here.

    The last few polls showed a potential reversal in trends. It will take more time and more polls to see if this trending is confirmed.

    There is often some significant late campaign movement in opinion as people start to think more about the election and firm up on their choices. Any trends in the last two weeks of the campaign are the ones to watch out for.

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  19. michaelmouse (15 comments) says:

    More great news. I have to admit to having some doubts about Nationals chances, with all the nonsense going on at the moment, so this has renewed my optimism.

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  20. soundhill1 (233 comments) says:

    “In Australia Tony Abbott’s net approval rating has risen 14% in the wake of the shooting down of MH370.” And they say Kim’s way of getting votes is wrong.

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  21. hj (7,011 comments) says:

    The Responsibilities Of Power

    It is critical to the future prosperity of New Zealand that its political leadership, even at the risk of incurring the electorate’s wrath, remain steadfast in its adherence to the principles of open markets and open borders.
    And if that means rehearsing the arguments in favour of free trade, as well as pointing out the likely consequences of denying the benefits of Most Favoured Nation status and National Treatment to a trading partner as vital to this country’s economic interests as the People’s Republic of China – then so be it.

    It is easy to secure the approbation of the masses by telling them what they want to hear. Much harder is the task of convincing one’s fellow citizens that the cost of the changes they are demanding is well beyond what most of them would be willing to pay.

    Small parties without prospect of ever being in a position to formulate the core policies of the state are free to promise voters the diplomatically and economically impossible. The leaders of parties large enough to make a difference have a duty to accept the responsibilities of power.

    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2014/08/the-responsibilities-of-power.html

    He interprets the China FTA as open borders (and land sales); it is the duty of the labour Government to overule the wishes of the majority.
    Really he is just a closet open borders socialist trying to maintain credibility as a member of a party (supposedly) representing New Zealand labour. This is why you don’t know what you are getting with labour: you get Chris Trotter and you get a liberal elite fixated with multiculturalism.

    Fantastic piece. Thanks so much.
    Vancouver’s experience is probably like Canada’s on the whole. Trudeau brought in multiculturalism by federal directive in the 70s (“Although there are two founding peoples there is no founding culture…” and that mirrored Laurier before him…) Then in 1982, multiculturalism was enshrined in the Charter. Then in the mid-80s a Conservative PM enacted the “Multiculturalism Act”.
    Now in Canada’s large cities it’s somewhat amusing to hear people speaking English. Fourth generation Canadians are seen as an amusing relic. Do you eat roasts? Do your parents wear sweaters to dinner and talk about classical music, ha ha ha?

    http://publicaddress.net/speaker/what-diversity-dividend/

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  22. PaulL (5,981 comments) says:

    @hj: or, perhaps, what you get is the bi-partisan consensus we’ve had for many years. The one that’s based on the opinions of all reputable economists. You know, the science is settled and all that.

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