The assumptions you need to make to back corporate welfare for the Christchurch Cathedral
Eric Crampton writes:
A couple days ago I pointed to NZIER’s figures on the case for strengthening the Christchurch cathedral.
I think it’s better to view this whole exercise as making clear what we’d need to believe if we wanted to believe that the regulatory apparatus surrounding the cathedral since 2011 is other than massively value destroying.
Recall that the Bishop wanted to demolish the cathedral and build a facility more in tune with current needs. Reinstating would be too expensive, and the final building not suitable for modern purpose.
A bunch of people who figured they knew better than the then-Bishop what to do with the Anglican Church’s property decided that they would interfere. The Wizard. The Heritage People. All the stickybeaks who love to block anyone ever doing anything, but who won’t stump the cash to give effect to their preferred views on things.
If you are happy to believe this set of things, then The Wizard and his cohort were right all along. If you don’t believe these things, then the case for blocking the Bishop from running a bulldozer through the thing over a decade ago destroyed enormous value.
The NZIER research was excellent in spelling out the assumptions you needed to make, to justify taxpayer cash for the Cathedral.
- Revenue from climbing the tower will be 5-15 times higher than before the earthquake
- Revenue from the gift shop and cafe will be 1-3 times higher than before the earthquake
- A half a million people per year each get $5 to $10 in enjoyment benefits from having a look inside
- Visiting the museum gives each of 114k to 159k people per year $10 to $20 in enjoyment benefits and there is no practicable way of charging for entry to either of those
- Regular churchgoers get $5-$10 in benefits from attending mass; special services provide $10-$20 in value
- Each of the 398k – 467k people in Christchurch get $2 to $20 in benefits from knowing the cathedral has been rebuilt and that they have the option to go and see it sometime. And $1 to $5 for each of the 4.8-5.3 million non-Christchurch New Zealanders
- Each international tourist will spend between 0.1 and 0.5 extra nights in Christchurch because the Cathedral has been restored; at least half of this will be a shift from other NZ destinations, 0-50% of the extra nights will be net increases in total time spent in New Zealand.