Kiwiblog

Sarah Young in the Nelson Mail reports:

Labour is recruiting “captains” to “wipe the smug grin” from Nelson MP Nick Smith’s face, but he was not smiling about the ploy today.

Dr Smith says Labour MP Maryan Street’s letter to Labour supporters asking for help with election campaigning is “pretty snide, negative stuff”.

The letter, signed by Labour’s campaign co-ordinator Kate Reilly, calls on people to “make a difference” by becoming a street captain to “motivate and mobilise voters on the day”.

“If we get it right we can be rid of Nick Smith as an electorate MP.

“It’s not complicated but it is important if you want to wipe that smug grin off Nick’s face.”

When I was a campaign manager, I never advocated nastiness towards my candidate’s opponent (Marian Hobbs). To the contrary I made a point of only saying positive things her in a personal, not political, sense.

Most voters don’t like the personal nastiness, and while the stuff about Nick is pretty mild (for Labour) it perhaps helps explain why Street lost the seat by 8,500 votes.

Tags: Maryan Street, Nelson, Nick Smith

I see Labour’s AXE the Tax bus is visiting you today.

You may consider the visit a waste of time, as Labour in fact are not promising to axe the tax or even the GST rise, but there is some good that can come from their visit.

You can inform them that Nelson is not part of Marlborough, and for that matter neither is Motueka.

Tags: Labour, Nelson

The birthplace of Labour, West Coast-Tasman went to National on the party vote by 11%. In 2005 the had a 3% margin. Damien O’Connor had a 1,500 majority and lost to Chris Auchinvole by 1,000 votes. Auchinvole (who once famously told Parliament you pronounce his name like it was Dock in Cole or a rude version that is easy to work out) wan a strong campaign with 160 hoardings and a large campaign team. O’Connor is first in on the Labour List, so if Michael Cullen retires he will be back as a List MP.

National finally won the party vote in Nelson. Labour won it by 6% in 2005 but National has a 5% lead in 2008. And no one was surprised that Nick retained his seat, although his majority did shrink from 9,500 to 7,900.

Kaikoura was marginal in 2002 and today the party vote was won by 23%, up from 9% in 2005. Colin King doubled his 4,700 mJority to 10,100.

Clayton Cosgrove did well to hold on in Waimakariri with 500 votes against the competent and hard working Kate Wilkinson. National won the party vote by 15%, up from a 0.3% margin in 2005. Cosgrove’s 2005 majority on new boundaries was 5,000.

Christchurch East remains red with 45% party vote Labour to 36% for National. However that 9% gap is a lot less than 24% in 2005. Dalziel’s 11,000 majority halved to 5,500 – still very safe. However National now has a List MP in the seat and will have hopes for when Lianne retires.

Christchurch Central was a great battle. Labour won the party vote by 1.4% and held the seat by 900 votes only. Nicky Wagner ran a very strong campaign but seats ending in Central are very hard to win for National. In 2005 the party vote margin was 22% and the majority for Barnett was 7,800.

Ilam has National 53% to 27% on the party vote. Gerry Brownlee also drives his majority from 5,500 to 10,800. This may finally stop Gerry from referring to his seat as marginal

Wigram saw Labour win the party vote by just 2%. In 2005 it was 12%. And Jim Anderton scored a fairly safe 4,500 majority despite new boundaries.

Finally we have Port Hills. National won the party vote by 16%, yet Ruth Dyson held the seat by 3,100. In 2005 Labour won the party vote by 12% so there was a massive swing there, yet Dyson’s majority shrank from just 3,600 to 3,100.

Tags: chris auchinvole, Christchurch Central, Christchurch East, Clayton Cosgrove, Colin King, Damien O'Connor, Gerry Brownlee, Ilam, Jim Anderton, Kaikoura, Kate Wilkinson, Lianne Dalziel, Nelson, Nick Smith, Nicky Wagner, Port Hills, Ruth Dyson, Waimakariri, West Coast-Tasman, Wigram

I’ve blogged over on curiablog the results fo several recent electorate polls, including tonight’s one in Tauranga. The topline results are:

• Tauranga – Bridges 26% ahead of Peters. Labour’s Pankhurst in 4th place at 5%. NZ First Party Vote down from 13% in 2005 to 6%.
• Palmerston North – National candidate Malcolm Plimmer ahead by 3%
• Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Parekura Horomia 5.4% ahead of Derek Fox
• Nelson – Nick Smith 36% ahead of Maryan Street
• West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor 3.5% ahead of Chris Auchinvole
• Te Tai Tonga – Maori TV/TNS has Mahara Okeroa ahead of Rahui Katene by 10% – 49% to 39%. However Marae Digipoll has Okeroa bejind by 6% – 40% to 46%
• Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta ahead of Angeline Greensill by 0.6%

All three Maori seats held by Labour are highly competitive. In two seats Labour is ahead and in the seat with conflcitign results, an averaging of them out would see Labour ahead. This means that the Maori Party may not have much of an overhang at all – in fact they could even gain a List MP if they got 4% or so party vote.

Palmerston North is the only Labour held seat that a public poll has shown National ahead in, so far. Due to boundary changes Taupo and Rotorua are technically National’s on paper.

Based on boundary changes and public polls (and note this is not a personal prediction) the electorate seats would be:

1. National 35
2. Labour 28
3. Maori 4
4. ACT 1
5. United Future 1
6. Progressive 1

Labour will in one sense be very pleased to be ahead in all three Maori seats. However this does lessen their chances of winning via overhang.

And the Tauranga result is superb. With only 5% voting Labour on the electorate vote anyway, it means no amount of tactical voting in Tauranga can put Winston back in that way.

Tags: Angeline Greensill, Anne Pankhurst, chris auchinvole, Damien O'Connor, Derek Fox, Hauraki-Waikato, Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Labour, Larry Baldock, Mahara Okeroa, Malcolm Plimmer, Maori Party, Maori Seats, Maryan Street, Nanaia Mahuta, Nelson, Nick Smith, Palmerston North, Parekura Horomia, Polls, Rahui Katene, Simon Bridges, Tauranga, Te Tai Tonga, West Coast-Tasman, Winston First