Kiwiblog

Whanganui had a 3% lead in the party vote in 2005, and this expanded out to 22% in 2008. And the 3,500 majority for Borrows goes to 6,000.

Rangitikei sees a 25% lead in the party vote and Simon Power moves his majority from 9,000 to 11,000.

Tukituki has an 18% lead in the party vote, and a 2,600 majority for Craig Foss gets a boost thanks to Labour’s sacking of the local District Health Board to over 7,000.

Palmerston North has been held by Labour since 1978. The party vote was narrowly won by National but Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway held off Malcolm Plimmer by 1,000 votes.

Wairarapa has National 17% ahead on the party vote. And John Hayes turns the seat safe with a 2,900 majority converting to 6,300 in 2008.

Otaki was a huge battle. I’ve door knocked Otaki in the past and it is not natural National territory in the Horowhenua parts. So winning the party vote by 8% is good for National after trailling by 3% last time. Darren Hughes put up a huge fight to protect his sub 400 majority but Nathan Guy grabbed the seat by almost 1,500.

In Wellington, Labour does a lot better starting with Mana. Labour remains 6% ahead on the party vote but reduced from 18% in 2005. Winnie Laban’s 6,800 majority shrinks only slightly to 5.300.

Rimutaka was the last hope for NZ First. Labour won the party vote there in 2005 by 11% and in 2008 by 0.3%. On the electorate vote just as narrow with Labour’s Chris Hipkins pipping Richard Whiteside by 600 votes. Ron Mark got a credible 5,000 votes but stll trailed by 7,000.

Hutt South is home to Wainuiomata and Trevor Mallard. Trevor delivered a party vote margin for Labour of 4% and a 3,600 majority for himself. In 2005 the party vote margin was 14% and the personal majority 6,600 so some movement there.

Rongotai is now the home of the Labour Deputy Leader. But even before her ascension, Rongotai gave Labour a massive 11% margin on the party vote – 43% to 32% for National. And her personal 13,000 majority in 2005 was only slightly dented to just under 8,000. If that is her low tide mark, she’ll be happy.

Wellington Central saw in 2005 a party vote for National of just 33%, Labour 43% and Greens around 16%. In 2008 it was National 36%, Labour 34% and Greens around 20%. Marian Hobbs had a 5,800 majority and Stephen Franks cut that to 1,500 against new MP Grant Robertson with some Green party votes giving Robertson their electorate vote to keep Franks out.

Ohariu was assumed by almost everyone to be safe as houses for Peter Dunne. But it got close this time. First on the party vote, National beat Labour 43% to 40% in 2005. This time it was 47% to 33%. On the candidate vote Peter Dunne dropped from 45% to 33% making him vulnerable. National’s Katrina Shanks lifted her vote from 21% to 26% and Labour’s Charles Chauvel from 26% to 30%. The Greens candidate got 7% of the vote and may have ironically saved the seat for Dunne.

Tags: Annette King, Charles Chauvel, Chester Borrows, Chris Hipkins, Craig Foss, Darren Hughes, Election 2008, Grant Robertson, Hutt South, Iain Lees-Galloway, John Hayes, Katrina Shanks, Malcolm Plimmer, Mana, Marian Hobbs, Nathan Guy, Ohariu, Otaki, Palmerston North, Peter Dunne, Rangitikei, Richard Whiteside, Rimutaka, Ron Mark, Rongotai, Simon Power, Stephen Franks, Trevor Mallard, Tukituki, Wairarapa, Wellington Central, Whanganui, Winnie Laban

I would have loved to have attended the Aro Valley debate last night, but sadly I was not in Wellington.

The Dom Post has a photo and story.

I love the water pistol for candidates who go over their time limit.

Dom Post reports:

In a meeting meant to entertain as much as anything else, Mr Appleby was a crowd-pleaser, noting Prime Minister Helen Clark’s emphasis on trust.

“You can’t even trust her photograph. I don’t want a 19-year- old running this country,” he said, referring to her airbrushed billboard image.

He had one answer for every issue from tax to law and order, student fees and health. “If we legalised cannabis . . .” he repeatedly shouted through a window to the crowd outside, who could not make it into the packed community hall and had complained that they could not hear.

Don Franks, a Rongotai factory hand standing for the Workers’ Party, filled out his opening address with a socialist song.

UnitedFuture’s Vaughan Smith took inspiration – setting his closing address to a rap accompanied by foot-stomping and finger-clicking from the audience.

I’d love to hear feedback from people who did attend, on how it went.

Tags: Aro Valley, debate, Election 2008, Wellington Central

Two fun opportunities for people interested in the Wellington Central race.

First we have the four main candidates on Backbenches tonight. Stephen Franks, Grant Robertson, Sue Kedgley and Heather Roy. They’;; be talking about the economy, tax cuts and why you should vote for them!

I suspect a big audience tonight so pay to be there early. The show screens at 9.10 pm on TVNZ7.

Also iPredict has launched a set of three Wellington Central stocks.

You can invest in a Grant Robertson victory, a Stephen Franks victory or a “Other” victory in Wellington Central. The share will pay $1 if you win and the initial offer price is 55.5c for Grant, 43.5c for Stephen and 1c for Other.

Advanced investors can also buy a bundle of all three shares for exactly $1. If the combined price of all three is over $1, then you can make money buying the bundle and selling the individual stocks (or just the stock you think is over priced).

Tags: Backbenches, Election 2008, Grant Robertson, Heather Roy, iPredict, Stephen Franks, Sue Kedgley, Wellington Central

Was very impressed yesterday to see around 20 members of Stephen Franks’ campaign team out with placards at the intersection of Lampton Quay and Bowen Street. They must have arranged it in the few hours between the announcement at 12.30 pm and my bus going past at 4.30 pm.

Some photos from Stephen’s Blog:

The Young Nats out in force.

It was a good intersection they picked as you are literally in the middle of the traffic.

And some smart use of a construction site to get visibility.

The campaign didn’t feel real until I saw them all out campaigning!

Tags: Stephen Franks, Wellington Central

The Wellington Central Campaign Launch is on Wednesday 6 August at the Paramount Theatre. For just $20 you get the launch plus the movie 4.

For tickets contact murraygibb@xtra.co.nz. Murray Gibb’s phone number is 04 475 4023 or 027 491 6956.

Tags: Stephen Franks, Wellington Central

Stephen Franks is back blogging after National’s internal rules prevented him from doing so during the candidate selection process. The rules are to prevent what he calls “Clinton/Obama style fraticide” which is a great way of illustrating it.

Stephen hits back at distortions of his position on issues such as the Prostitution Reform and Civil Union Bills, and defends classicial liberals against what he labels collectivists who has stolen liberal clothing

Grant Robertson has also welcomed Stephen to the contest, and says he is looking forward to debating values, issues and policies. He says it would be good to hear Stephen’s views on National’s policy to keep core public service numbers constant for the next three years.

This might be the first ever contest where both major candidates blog. It will be great if we do get some useful discussions going between blogs.

Tags: Blogosphere, Grant Robertson, Stephen Franks, Wellington Central

They have just announced the results of the first ballot and Stephen Franks has won on the first ballot. He gave an exceptionally good speech.

Tags: National, Stephen Franks, Wellington Central

NZPA through Stuff report that Sue Kedgley will again be the Green Party candidate for Wellington Central.

WC is the highest party vote in NZ for The Greens. I thought they might stand Russel Norman there this time as he is a co-leader, and would attract even more attention.

National makes it selection tonight. I’ll blog it when known. I think it will be very close.

Tags: Greens, National, Russel Norman, Sue Kedgley, Wellington Central

National Party selections are in full swing, as they try to get them all finished by early to mid April. Last Thursday there was a Meet the Candidates Meeting upstairs in the Backbencher at 5.30 pm. I popped in seeing it was on my way home.

The three Wellington Central candidates are Paul Quinn, Stephen Franks and David Broome.  They all spoke and answered questions well.  Obviously only one of them can be candidate for Wellington Central,but I hope more than one of them can make their way into Parliament. It’s great to see all over the country so many good candidates stepping forward.

These meetings are not public, so I can’t go into details, but I can reveal that I asked a question stolen from Grant Robertson’s blog – which was to ask all the candidates to name a policy they think would be good for NZ, but which would be unpopular.

Most people probably don’t realise how gruelling a National Party selection contest can be.  So I thought I would use this post to explain.

First of all the selection meeting is made up of at least 60 delegates, based on a delegate  for every 15 members in the electorate, plus a top-up if that doesn’t make 60 by the local Region .  You have to have been a party member for at least six months to be a delegate.  The largest electorates can have around 150 delegates at the selection meeting. The Head Office gets no say at all except they can veto unsuitable candidates at the pre-selection stages.

Now once nominations close, candidates get told who the delegates are. Because it is a defined group of people (unlike Labour where any member or affiliated union member can turn up on the night), there is intensive lobbying.

In a serious contest, each candidate will have one on one meetings with all 60+ delegates – lasting about an hour each. On top of that there may be half a dozen “cottage meetings” where a dozen or so delegates are invited to hear a candidate talk and ask questions informally.

Then you have the three formal Meet The Candidates meetings. All delegates must attend at least one of these, and  they consist of 6 – 8 minute speeches from each candidate (with them all staying in the room for each other’s) and then questions from the floor which can be to one or all of the candidates. This can go on for some hours, and you can get some aggressive or tough questions.

Then you have the selection night, where each candidate has a ten minute speech, and then they have to answer two questions – one from the Leader and one from the President.  The same questions go to all candidates, so they don’t stay in the room for each other’s speeches. Then you finally have the vote.

So a candidate for the nomination may end up doing 60+ one on one meetings, half a dozen cottage meetings, three meet the candidate meetings plus the actual selection meeting.  It is no small commitment.

Tags: candidates, David Broome, National, Paul Quinn, Stephen Franks, Wellington Central