UMR in January 2004 did a poll on whether people think Watson, Bain and Ellis were guilty of the crimes they were convicted of.
The article is somewhat useless though because they have combined those who say they are unsure with those who think someone is not guilty. There is a big difference between 55% think guilty, 45% not guilty and 55% guilty, 40% not sure and 5% not guilty.
Anyway the percentage guilty for each (comparison to April 2002 in brackets) is:
Watson 44% (59%)
Ellis 23% (25%)
Bain around 33%
For what it is worth I have no doubt at all that Bain was guilty. I also have no doubt that Ellis should not have been convicted.
Everything I have read and heard about Watson suggest he is an extremely violent, almost psychopathic, individual. The contradictory evidence of Guy Wallace has muddied things, but recalling Hope’s DNA was found on his boat, I think it is a safe conviction.