National’s List

National has released its party list. Congratulations to those candidates who have got winnable places, and commiserations to those lower down. Never a nice process to go through. Also well done to the List Ranking Committee who have the difficult and often unpopular job of having to produce the list which inevitably pleases some and disappoints others.

What is important is not just the list, but what we call the effective list. This takes into account the seats a party will win.

On today’s SST poll National would get 45 seats. Now National currently holds 21 seats so if National does not win or lose any seats (in reality I expect National to win a few) then there would be 24 List MPs. Those MPs would be:

1 Don Brash
2 David Carter
3 Katherine Rich
4 Tim Grosser
5 Clem Simich
6 Georgine te Heuheu
7 Pansy Wong
8 Chris Finlayson
9 Nicky Wagner
10 Tau Henare
11 Jo Goodhew
12 David Bennett
13 Chester Borrows
14 Chris Auchinvole
15 Jonathan Coleman
16 Mark Blumsky
17 Eric Roy
18 Kate Wilkinson
19 Nathan Guy
20 Jacqui Dean
21 Jackie Blue
22 Anne Tolley
23 Craig Foss
24 Paula Bennett

And one would also have Allan Peachy in Tamaki and Colin King in Kaikoura. Again I stress this is based on no change in electorate seats and while I am not going to start naming seats I think National will or can win, I do think a few will be picked up. However most of these are contested by candidates in the top 45 on the list, so it may not change things greatly.

People (including the candidates who read this blog) may be interested at who would get in at what level of party vote. Well based on a 5% wasted vote (votes for parties that do not make it into Parliament) the Party Vote table would be:

PV20% – 25 MPs – 4 List MPs – Tim Grosser (No 13) last list MP in
PV25% – 32 MPs – 11 List MPs – Jo Goodhew (No 31)
PV 30% – 38 MPs – 17 List MPs – Eric Roy (No 37)
PV 33% – 42 MPs – 21 List MPs – Jackie Blue (No 41)
PV 35% – 44 MPs – 23 List MPs – Craig Foss (No 44)
PV 37% – 47 MPs – 26 List MPs – Fepulea’i Ulua’ipou-O-Malo Aiono (No 47)
PV 40% – 51 MPs – 30 List MPs – Moira Irving (No 51)
PV 43% – 54 MPs – 33 List MPs – Mike Leddy (No 54)
PV 45% – 57 MPs – 36 List MPs – Gilbert Stehbens (No 57)
PV 50% – 63 MPs – 42 List MPs – Allison Lomax (No 63)

Please note that none of these projections are based on any *inside* knowledge. It is simply a mathematical projection based on public information. And again at the 20% to 35% scenarios the outcomes will be affected more by what seats National picks ups.

For those who like to focus on diversity I note that the top 10 likely List MPs include four women, two Maori New Zealanders and an Asian New Zealander.

Based on today’s SST poll, and assuming no electorate seats change hands, the stats for the National Caucus would be:

45 MPs
12 women (27% of Caucus, and women make up 28% of candidates)
3 Maori (te Heuheu, Henare and Paula Bennett)

Nthn Region 18 MPs (currently 13)
CNI 7 MPs (5)
LNI 7 MPs (2)
CW 8 MPs (5)
Sthn 5 MPs (2)

Auckland 15 MPs (10)
Wellington 3 MPs (0)
Christchurch 4 MPs (2)
Provincial 10 MPs (4)
Rural 13 MPs (11)

Based on the current poll result, looks to be pretty well balanced regionally and geographically.

As a long-term LNI and Wellington party worker I am looking forward to having some more MPs. Of course it all depends on the Party Vote, and Mark is not certain to get in if we had a bad party vote nationwide, so I know he is still set 100% on winning Wellington Central as he does have the luxury of a top ten place like the incumbent MP.

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