Quite a bit of recent poll activity here. I’m going to summarise the polls in each of the seven seats going from north to south:
Te Tai Tokerau – Samuels behind by 16% in July. In April led by 34%. Despite the trend normally being all important, I believe Samuels is toast with a 16% deficit. The 34% lead was always inflated.
Tamaki Makaurau – Tamihere behind by 2% in July Marae Digipoll. Was 36% behind in April and a July Maori TV TNS poll has Tamihere 38% behind. This is too close to call as the different results are too far apart to be reconciled without knowing sampling methods. I suspect Marae Digipoll does a standalone poll while Maori TV TNS ask the questions as part of an omnibus poll on many issues, as their sample is collected over six weeks. I put more weight on Marae Digipoll.
Personally I hope Tamihere is re-elected as he causes far more problems for Labour than he does for anyone else.
Tainui – Mahuta behind by 4% in July Maori TV TNS Poll but 22% ahead in August Marae Digipoll. She was ahead by 15% in April Marae Digipoll. Too close to call.
It is ironic that Labour attacked the April Marae Digipolls as “snake oil”, because they are now consistently showing Labour far better off than Maori TV TNS polls are.
Te Tai Hauauru – Tariana ahead by 60% in July Maori TV TNS poll. In April 48% with Marae Digipoll. She is home and hosed.
Waiariki – Mita Ririnui behind by 24% in July Maori TV TNS poll. Was 15% behind in April Marae Digipoll. He is gone bar a miracle (but back on list).
Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Horomia ahead by 7% in July Maori TV TNS poll and also ahead by 7% in April Marae Digipoll. Horomia looks fairly safe but margin of error is high at 6.7% (not 5% as Maori TV claims here) so not certain.
Te Tai Tonga – Mahara Okeroa behind by 23% in April Marae Digipoll. Best to wait to see more up to date results but MP win is likely.
So overall state of play is Maori Party look highly likely to win Te Tai Tokerau, Te Tai Hauauru, Waiariki and Te Tai Tonga.
Tamaki Makaurau and Tainui have somewhat contradictory results.
Labour ahead in Ikaroa-Rawhiti.
So Maori Party at this stage look like they will win four seats, on a good day win six, and on a very very good day sweep all seven. Best case for Labour appears to be holding onto three out of seven.