Fairfax Poll

The Fairfax Poll this morning has National 3% ahead of Labour. This confirms that Labour’s anti-Brash campaign has failed to resonate and that voters are actually focused on policies – which is a good thing.

The results are:

National 44%
Labour 41%
Green 5%
NZ First 4%
United Future 2%
ACT 1%
Maori 1%

Now what this means for seats is fascinating if we assume on the basis of public polls only Anderton, Dunne and Turia retain their seats of the Leaders:

National 57
United 3

Labour 53
Green 6
Progressive 1
Maori 1

So a four way coalition of the left would have a 1 seat majority.

If the Greens did drop below 5% and are wiped out, then it would be:

National 60
United Future 3

Labour 56
Maori 1
Progressive 1

Now for the sake of argument if NZ First and ACT won an electorate seat it would be:

National 54
ACT 1
United Future 2

NZ First 5

Labour 51
Green 6
Maori 1
Progressive 1