NZ Herald Poll

Somewhat bizarrely the NZ Herald Poll shows Labour 7% ahead and able to form a sole party majority Government. With all due respect, but if anyone believes that is a possible outcome, then I have a bridge for sale.

Both this poll and the TV3 poll cover a period of around a week, starting late last week. The only poll just done this week is TV One. This is not to say TV One is necessairly the likely outcome as the electorate is volatile, but that as so much has happened in the last week, it is dangerous to compare taken over different time periods.

Dr Dekel, owner of Digipoll, himself says “To get a correct picture when people are shifting their views so quickly, you need a high-speed camera”.

Anyway you have TV One and Fairfax putting National ahead both by 6%. TV3 says Labour by 2% and NZ Herald Labour by 7%. Unlike 2002 when most polling companies got the result pretty spot on, this election is going to be fulfilling or embarrassing for some of the polling companies.

Just like in the United States, results may come down to which set of voters are most motivated to vote!

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