One News had a Colmar Brunton poll tonight. I missed it and their website is unresponsive but I am informed results are approx:
National 47% (+2)
Labour 38% (-4)
Green 5% (-2)
NZ First 4% (+2)
Maori 3% (+1)
The 9% gap might be seen as optimistic as other polls tend to be less favourable to National, but the key thing is the trend, and this shows the gap growing 6% since the last poll at the end of March.
This makes sense with the negative reaction to the budget. Once upon a time budgets were meant to help, not harm, the Government!
An election based on those results, and with no change in electorate seats would see:
A National-ACT or National-United Government would have a majority 62/123 seats.