The final Dispatch from Helengrad?

In what may be my final Dispatch from Helengrad, I look at the and adjust them for how far out each poll was in 2005:

The polls do not always get it right, so can we trust the four polls out in the last 24 hours that predict a National-led Government? Didn’t the polls get it wrong last time?

It is true that some polls in 2005 did have a result that was significantly different to the election result. However last time the polls were split with two polls predicting National victory and three a Labour victory. In 2008 the four election eve polls are all saying the same thing – a National-led Government. There may be a Morgan poll out today also, but as of writing it has not been published.

In an analysis not done anywhere else, I am going to look at what the four polls predict for each party, and what happens if you adjust their polls by the margin they were out by last time.

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