The final Dispatch from Helengrad?

In what may be my final Dispatch from Helengrad, I look at the polls and adjust them for how far out each poll was in 2005:

The polls do not always get it right, so can we trust the four polls out in the last 24 hours that predict a National-led Government? Didn’t the polls get it wrong last time?

It is true that some polls in 2005 did have a result that was significantly different to the election result. However last time the polls were split with two polls predicting National victory and three a Labour victory. In 2008 the four election eve polls are all saying the same thing – a National-led Government. There may be a Morgan poll out today also, but as of writing it has not been published.

In an analysis not done anywhere else, I am going to look at what the four polls predict for each party, and what happens if you adjust their polls by the margin they were out by last time.

Comments and feedback can be done over at NBR.