6.8% unemployment

Wow that is a big jump. I always thought the 6.1% figure last quarter was probably too optimistic (remember the HLFS is only a survey, albeit a large one) so I was expecting a small increase. But this is a large increase.

I tend to think one almost forgets the March 2010 quarter figure (as no one really thinks has risen by 0.7% in a quarter) and focus on that it has gone from 7.1% in Dec to just 6.8% in June 2010. That is not much at all.

Three thoughts:

  1. Stats NZ need to consider why such huge variations from one quarter to another quarter. This shakes confidence a bit in the HLFS.
  2. The Govt becomes far more vulnerable to opposition attacks, now they no longer have “the biggest quarterly employment growth” in history to rely on.
  3. It is becoming quite obvious the recovery is not that robust and needs to be stronger, and this puts pressure on the Government to consider further growth friendly policies – yes even those put out by the 2025 taskforce

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