Thoughts on the Australian election result

  1. Labor ran an awful campaign. Almost policy-free, and all about demonising Tony Abbott.
  2. Tony Abbott ran a very good campaign, and really only stuffed up once on the campaign trail.
  3. Gillard’s climate change policy of referring the issue to a citizen’s assembly was their biggest mistake as it alienated both sides on that issue and was seen as utterly cynical.
  4. Rudd’s leaks against Gillard did damage Labor, and the anger over his rolling was a factor.
  5. Even if Labor retain government, Gillard may face an unhappy caucus as the Rudd faction will point out she blew his majority.
  6. The truth is Rudd probably would have lost by a bigger margin, but this will fade from memory.
  7. While the three Independents can put Abbott into power, he will not have a Senate majority, so don’t assume it is a done deal for Abbott.
  8. It is possible Labor and Greens could do a coalition deal, with some Green Senators becoming Ministers. They need Wilkie (likely) and at least one Independent to support them in the House, unless they pick up an extra seat on special votes.
  9. The two election parties were such a contrast – Labor half empty and dejected, and Liberals cheering their hero Tony.
  10. Whatever happens, a three year term for the next Government looks unlikely.

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