The signs are that Queensland MP Bob Katter will not support Labor. This may be a blessing in disguise for Julia Gillard, as Bob is rather eccentric.
Katter wants the mining tax and any ETS dropped. This makes it very unlikely that he will support a Labor-Green Government.
So it will all come down to Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. If they stick together they will decide the Government. If they disagree with each other, then the House is tied 75-75 and another election will be needed.
What still tips it Labor’s way in my view is that they are more likely to last three years, as the Greens will control the Senate from July 2011.
However the Independents will be concerned that their electorates may not like the policies of a Labor/Green Government, and if they go for that option they may risk losing their seats next election.