There is a growing consensus that the Dems will lose the House. US News reports:
Typically cautious Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, is rocking the political world with a new “Crystal Ball” prediction: The GOP will win the House, making Ohio’s John Boehner speaker, might get a 50-50 split in the Senate, and will pick up some eight new governors.
A recent Gallup poll had the Republicans 10% ahead on the generic ballot – their largest lead in over 70 years.
What maybe more exciting is the Senate. The Republicans have 41 seats. They need to win a massive 10 seats to gain control. There are 37 seats up for election, 19 held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans.
So the Republicans would have to win over half of the Democratic held seats, and not lose any of their own. Normally an impossible task.
But it is now only improbably, not impossible. 538 calculates that the Republicans will pick up seven seats with a greater than 50% probability – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada.
There are four other seats where they are deemed to have a 30% or grater chance, and only trail by 3% or less. They are Illinois, Washington, California and Wisconsin. They only need three of those four to gain control.
You know things are bad for the Democrats when Illinois and California are marginal!
The Illinois seat, is Obama’s old one.
The elections are on 2 November 2010 – just over eight weeks away.