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June 10, 2011 11:17am by David Farrar

A boost for Labour

I call the latest Roy Morgan poll a boost for Labour in my By the Numbers column at Stuff.

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Comment23

NZ Politics
By the numbers
Polls
Stuff

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The trend for Labour
A closer poll
iPredict this week

Comments (23)

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Mark

It is a worrying trend if it continues.
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June 10, 2011 11:22am
mikenmild

Seems likely that the gap will narrow further as election day approaches and make the minor parties even more relevant. The wild card could yet be NZ First.
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June 10, 2011 11:31am
labrator

Incredible that the greens dropped! Just goes to show how god awful their leadership has been lately if you prefer Phil Goff over those two.
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June 10, 2011 11:33am
Manolo

A direct result of Bill English’s dismal performance as Finance Minister.
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June 10, 2011 11:34am
Murray

Phils been out of the headlines so a rise is to be expected.

Put a microphone in front of him and watch the polls swandive again.
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June 10, 2011 11:42am
slightlyrighty

http://blog.labour.org.nz/index.php/2011/06/10/take-care-with-polls/

an interesting assessment……
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June 10, 2011 11:46am
berend

@slightlyrighty, yeah and read there “Will they lose WFF ?”

That’s the game with WFF. The government now funds you. Vote for us, and we’ll give you some more. Vote for the bastards and they take money away from you.

This is what welfare does, and it’s a game National continues to play as well.

They should have abolished WFF.

But no, they borrowed.
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June 10, 2011 11:51am
Pete George

@slightlyrighty I think that’s a realistic assessment by Mallard, one swing the other way doesn’t make a trend.

Overall don’t the same old options look a bit depressing? With the weakness of the look of the field it will be easy for votes to slosh all over the place.
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June 10, 2011 11:51am
Bob R

How much of this is to do with issues like partial asset sales, ACC etc?
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June 10, 2011 11:53am
ross

I would say it’s got a lot to do with partial asset sales, ACC, etc. It might also have to do with John Key’s arrogance. Smiling and hand-waving can only take you so far as PM. Of course, his lies haven’t helped.
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June 10, 2011 11:58am
mikenmild

Looks like a long way to go to election day. None of the parties could be particularly confident of success. National obviously are still in the box seat, but are by no means certainties to govern.
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June 10, 2011 12:03pm
wreck1080

I’ve said before, national are not going to win this easily.

The maoris / greens /nz first are a much more natural fit for labour.

John Keys performance has been hugely disappointing with respect to the economy and some of this must be lumped on him.
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June 10, 2011 12:15pm
Murray

Maoris/greens/nz first/labour are NOT a natural fit for turiana and Pita.

Do not underestimate their personal dislike for the way they were treated by labour.
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June 10, 2011 12:20pm
mikenmild

Murray – how much of that animus was shed with Clark’s departure? Do Labour and the Maori Party have a positive relationship now, or potential to develop one?
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June 10, 2011 12:30pm
Inventory2

Labour’s fortunes might have increased by 8 points, but the majority of that came at the expense of its partners; the Greens fell by 3.5 points to 6.5%, and Winston lost another 0.5 point dropping back to 2.5%. The Roy Morgan people still make the point that “the National Party would easily be returned to Government.” on the basis of the current polling.
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June 10, 2011 12:40pm
queenstfarmer

Good. Anything that increases competition among the parties is welcome. National should not be sleepwalking to the polls.
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June 10, 2011 12:47pm
Bob R

***I would say it’s got a lot to do with partial asset sales, ACC, etc. It might also have to do with John Key’s arrogance. Smiling and hand-waving can only take you so far as PM. ***

@ Ross,

I’d disagree with the last part – I think that Key’s popularity has insulated National from problems in other areas (unless there is some data showing that has dipped). I think it’s that some of the policies are worrying people.
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June 10, 2011 1:05pm
Fisiani

Hopefully the polls narrow still further between now and November. Voter complacency is still National’s greatest threat.
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June 10, 2011 1:28pm
Shazzadude

“Labour’s fortunes might have increased by 8 points, but the majority of that came at the expense of its partners; the Greens fell by 3.5 points to 6.5%, and Winston lost another 0.5 point dropping back to 2.5%. The Roy Morgan people still make the point that “the National Party would easily be returned to Government.” on the basis of the current polling.”

Even so, that’s still a 4% swing from the government to opposition, not something that can be lightly shrugged off. Another one of those swings and Goff has the numbers with the Greens and Maori Party-while Tariana has had her history with Labour, the Greens would be less of a blockade for the Maori Party than ACT are.

Still, this means nothing for Labour if it doesn’t trend out.
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June 10, 2011 2:19pm
Dazzaman

Would it be fair to say that National have done their blood letting early & are prepared to cop a negative poll result now rather then later? Probably.

Pretty sure the polls will go all over the show for the left….National still seem to have retained their numbers within poll variances. Next round may see if there are any lasting trends.
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June 10, 2011 2:20pm
aitkenmike

To those who said that the earlier polls were still to early to show the effect Brash had on drawing votes to ACT – does the fact that ACT STILL isn’t tracking up give you pause for thought? I actually thought that he had some support to get them up near the 5%, but do any of you actually hold on to the belief that he can take ACT to 15%?
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June 10, 2011 2:29pm
Manolo

Smile and wave, where are you?
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June 10, 2011 6:36pm
Johnboy

Sucking on the Taniwhas tit perhaps Manolo! 🙂
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June 10, 2011 6:38pm

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