2014 election winners and losers

Big Winners

  • John Key – highest vote for National since 1954 and the first ever majority under MMP
  • Kelvin Davis – the most popular person in New Zealand today, for ridding New Zealand politics of Kim Dotcom

Small Winners

  • Winston Peters. Got a very good 9% and 11 MPs. Already trying to claim title of Leader of the Opposition. Would be a big winner if he had got to hold the balance of power
  • Sue Bradford – the only high profile Mana member with integrity, who quit rather than accept Dotcom’s millions
  • David Shearer – may become leader again, and all the talk is how he left Labour 10% higher in the polls than they got on Saturday
  • Peter Dunne – kept his seat, will be a Minister again
  • David Seymour – not only retained Epsom for ACT, but got a very respectable majority. May become ACT Leader
  • Trevor Mallard – despite David Cunliffe’s best efforts, still an MP
  • Nicky Wagner, Nikki Kaye and Sam Lotu-Iiga who retained marginal seats
  • Stuart Nash, the only Labour candidate to win a seat off National
  • Ruth Dyson, Phil Twyford, Iain Lees-Galloway for retaining their seats against strong National candidates
  • Peeni Henare and Adrian Rurawhe for returning two more Maori seats to Labour
  • James Shaw – the only new MP for the Greens, but a potential future co-leader who can expand their appeal to moderates
  • The public pollsters – the average of the public polls was pretty close to the results for National and Labour
  • Steven Joyce, Jo de Joux, Greg Hamilton and Cam Cotter – the nucleus of National’s campaign team, who kept the focus and discipline, despite all the distractions

Winners and Losers

  • Colin Craig. He didn’t make 5% but got a very respectable result, and well placed for 2017. He is in this for the long game.
  • Te Ururoa Flavell. He kept his seat easily, will be a Minister again, and got a List MP in. However the Maori Party may never be able to win back the other six Maori seats and have an uncertain future

Small Losers

  • Russel Norman and Metiria Turei. Despite the good polls, they got fewer votes than 2011, and have a sixth term in opposition
  • Nicky Hager – wrote a book designed to get National thrown out of Government, and instead helped National get a third term as the media furore over his book pissed off ordinary New Zealanders who got sick of it, and crowded out Labour and the Greens. Only a small loser though, as he probably has made a six figure sum from the book!
  • iPredict – were highly accurate in 2011, but were well off the mark this time. Did pretty well on electorate races, but had National too low by 4%, Greens too high by 5% and NZ First too low by 2%

Big Losers

  • Kim Dotcom – he threw $4.5 million into his per parties, and destroyed the Mana Party, stillborn the Internet Party and personally helped boost John Key into a majority in Parliament. He has gone from being a figure two years ago who many NZers had sympathy for, to a reviled figure for many many NZers.
  • David Cunliffe – the worst result for Labour for generations, 3% lower than their disaster of 2011. Gave a Kevin Rudd like pseudo-victory speech on the night which was tone deaf.
  • Hone Harawira and Laila Harre. While their politics were never mine, I (and others) respected them as principled advocates for their beliefs. On a personal level I previously quite liked them. But their decision to take millions of dollars from a former donor to right wing politicians, who was a convicted criminal, under extradition proceedings, and with well publicised allegations of not paying staff and creditors while living a life of luxury – well their reputations are massively tarnished, and may never recover.
  • Jamie Whyte – failed to get into Parliament, and ACT’s future is uncertain, as is his leadership

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