Some What If questions.
What if National, not ACT, won Epsom?
National would go from 60 to 61 MPs and have a majority in a Parliament of 121. They are currently in the “just missed out” place on the St Lague formula. So Paul Goldsmith would be an electorate MP, Maureen Pugh a List MP, and John Key would have a majority.
What if National, not United Future, won Ohariu?
Dunne’s seat is an overhang. Parliament would be 120 MPs, not 121. National and ACT could govern.
What if National won Epsom and Ohariu?
National would have 61/120 MPs and have a majority – just.
What is the Maori Party did not win Waiariki?
National would gain a seat, as would Labour and National would have a majority of 61/121 .
What if Hone Harawira won Te Tai Tokerau?
National and Greens would lose a seat each, as Mana would have two seats. National would have 59 MPs and could govern with ACT and United Future.
What is the threshold was
4% below what the Conservatives got?
The Conservatives would have 5 MPs. National loses three, Labour one and Greens one. National on 57 could govern with Conservatives on 5.