US Mid-term Elections 2014: Live Updates

[UPDATE 5.27] Crist has conceeded to Scott in Florida

[UPDATE 5.22] Ernst wins Iowa. GOP controls the Senate.

[UPDATE 5.03] Its 50 – 45 to the GOP in the Senate. Only one more needed now to take the prize.

[UPDATE 4.49] Senate races – Virginia still very close ditto for North Carolina. Kansas Roberts leading Orman (Fox has just called it for Roberts)

[UPDATE 3.56] Fox calling Colorado Senate race for GOP. Now +4

[UPDATE 3.17] Been offline because an electrician was here

Scott still leading Crist in Florida Governors race. 49-46% 97%   counted. The GOP will be getting hopeful of a win. Senate GOP +3 pickups

[UPDATE 2.38] Arkansas senate seat falls to GOP who have now picked 2 senate seats

[UPDATE 2.17] Florida Governors race: 75% count done. Scott (R) 48 Crist (D) 47

Virginia Senate  race between Warner (D) vs Gillespie (R). much closer than expected

[UPDATE 1.36] GOP as expected win the West Virginia Senate seat. First seat loss for Dems.

[UPDATE 1.15] Fox and RCP are calling Kentucky for McConnell

[UPDATE 1.00pm] The first polls close in 6 states any moment

This post will be updated as results start coming in. The first polls will close at 1pm (NZ time).

My predictions:

  • Senate: Republicans end up with a 52-48 majority
  • House of Representatives: Republicans pickup 6-9 seats
  • Gubernatorial races: I’m with DPF, the GOP lose about 3 seats

INTRODUCTION

It is election day in the USA with seats in the Congress (House and the Senate) up for grabs. There are also key Gubernatorial contests. There is much interest in the battle for  the US Senate with Republicans looking to take control off Harry Reid and the Democrats.

DPF posted his take on the mid-terms yesterday.

THE SENATE

There are 36 seats being contested. Currently Democrats hold 55 (includes two independents who caucus with them) – Republicans 45.

Here are the results of the opinion polls from the key seats as analysed by Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight yesterday:

Senate-Polling4

1. *= Open election (incumbent retiring)
2. Georgia and Louisiana: The 50% plus 1 vote rule applies. If leading candidate doesn’t achieve this then a runoff is held.
3. RCP = Real Clear Politics average of polls
4. 538 = Nate Silver’s blog

Scenario: The Republicans look certain to pick up four seats: Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. This would give them 49 seats if they hold Kansas.
This means they would need to win two of Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina. If they lose Kansas they would need to win three of these seats.

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS

There are 36 states with elections for Governor. Currently the Republicans hold 29 governorships and  the Democrats 21. Here is a brief summary of some of the more interesting contests (incumbent has asterisk).

Florida: Scott (R)* vs Crist (D)- This has turned into an intense dogfight with former Republican turned Democrat Crist narrowly ahead in the polls. Both sides have brought in the heavy hitters to promote their candidate. No love lost here in this bitter contest with a total of $US150 million spent by the two campaigns.

Wisconsin: Walker (R)* vs Burke (D): The battle hardened Walker is fighting Burke and the Democrats who have been desperately trying to get rid of him for years. If successful Walker is seen by pundits as a candidate for the presidency in 2016.

Kansas: Brownback (R)* vs Davis (D): This is normally a strongly leaning GOP state but Brownback is unpopular with many partly because of a poorly implemented tax cut policy. He has been behind in the polls.

Illinois: Quinn (D)* vs Rauner (R): Normally a Democratic state but polls show this as being very difficult to pick.

Colorado: Hickenlooper (D)* vs Beauprez (R): The polls have this being practically a tie currently.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

All 435 seats are up for re-election. The House hasn’t got nearly near as much coverage in the US media probably because the GOP will almost certainly retain control and may pickup more seats.

Current seats held:

Republicans 233
Democrats 199
Vacant 3

SOURCES AND WEB LINKS

Real Clear Politics Election 2014

FiveThirtyEight Senate Races Coverage

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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