Predictions for 2016

Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax , with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2016:

  1. There will be a by-election in 2016
  2. There will be a change to the composition of the Key Ministry in 2016
  3. A List MP will leave Parliament in 2016
  4. We will have a new Speaker during the year
  5. Jacinda Ardern will poll within 2% of Andrew Little as Preferred PM
  6. The 2015/16 year will also end in surplus
  7. The official cash rate will not rise in 2016
  8. National will poll higher than Labour and Greens combined in at least 80% of public polls
  9. The current flag will win in the second referendum
  10. David Shearer will be appointed the Government’s Special Envoy for the Middle East
  11. Phil Goff will not be elected Mayor of Auckland
  12. Lianne Dalziel will be re-elected Mayor of Christchurch
  13. A registered political party will deregister during the year
  14. Celia Wade-Brown will  not be re-elected Mayor of Wellington
  15. NZ First will poll higher than the Greens in at least one public poll
  16. John Key will host two of the five permanent members (their heads of governments) of the Security Council in NZ in 2015
  17. One or more Labour Maori MPs will break ranks with Labour on a major policy or issue
  18. The Greens will declare more large donations than Labour in their annual return to the Electoral Commission
  19. Unemployment will drop back below 6%
  20. The NZ Herald will publish more stories about Max Key than about the Maori Party, ACT Party and United Future combined

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