Listen to this six minute interview with Andrew Little on Morning Report on the TPPA and then tell me whether Labour supports or opposes the TPPA.
I defy anyone to tell me the answer, because it is impossible. He just keeps using the same cliches and slogans yet can’t state clearly where Labour stands on it.
Meanwhile Todd McClay has released the TPPA National Interest Analysis. The analysis says:
TPP would be New Zealand’s first FTA with five countries, including our fourth and fifth largest trading partners (the US and Japan). TPP countries account for NZ$20 billion (40%) of New Zealand’s global goods exports, NZ$8 billion (47%) of New Zealand’s global services exports, and three quarters of New Zealand’s outwards and inwards investment. …
An estimated NZ$334 million is paid annually in duties on New Zealand exports to the five TPP countries with which we do not have existing FTAs (the US, Japan, Canada, Mexico and Peru).1 While TPP has not delivered the full elimination of tariffs on our exports that New Zealand sought, it would deliver substantial benefits to exporters from the moment the Agreement enters into force, and the full elimination of tariffs on 95.4% of New Zealand exports when fully phased in, saving NZ$272 million in duties in these five new markets.
The savings by sector are:
- Dairy $96m
- Meat $84m
- Horticulture $34m
- Wine $16m
- Forestry $11m
And the long term:
Economic modelling commissioned by the New Zealand Government estimates that once fully in effect, TPP would result in New Zealand’s GDP being about 1% larger than if TPP had not existed, adding NZ$2.7 billion to GDP (in 2007 dollars) in 2030.
Also if we do not participate TPP, then our GDP will shrink as more trade will flow between TPP partners, which we’ll be excluded from.
From the first year of entry into force, TPP would be of net benefit to New Zealand8 . This net benefit would grow substantially as the benefits from TPP come on line (e.g. tariffs phased out over longer periods). Total benefits after three years are predicted to be ten times larger than costs, with the gap continuing to widen as the economic benefits of greater export opportunities were made available to New Zealand businesses.
The impact on GDP in the long term is projected as:
- Reductions in tariffs and quota barriers on goods trade $624m
- Reductions in non-tariff measures (NTMs) on goods trade $1,460m
- Improved trade facilitation measures $374m
- Reductions in barriers on services trade $250m
- Copyright term extension -$55m
- Foregone tariff revenue -$20m
Yet Labour are joining protests against the TPP, while still trying to avoid stating a position on it.