New Zealand will be among the bigger gainers from the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, boosting exports by around 10 per cent by 2030.
A study by the World Bank on the controversial trade agreement claims that while New Zealand will see a much smaller boost to economic output than the likes of Vietnam and Malaysia, the boost from being part of the TPPA would be far bigger than that accrued by Australia, Canada or the United States.
Calculating increases in trade and economic output, New Zealand ranks fourth out of the 12 members on both counts.
Well done NZ negotiators.
The study estimates that countries left out of the TPPA agreement will suffer. Even though trade overall would be boosted, with Russia seeing a slight gain to its GDP from spillover benefits, the economies of China and India would be about 0.2 per cent smaller than they would otherwise be.
Thailand, hit by declining exports from being left out of the agreement, would see its economy about 0.8 per cent smaller than otherwise.
Which is what Labour and Greens say we should do – walk away from it.
The full report is here. The growth in GDP per member is estimated as:
- Vietnam 10%
- Malaysia 8%
- Brunei 5%
- NZ 3.5%
- Singapore 3%
- Japan 3%
- Peru 2.5%
- Mexico 2%
- Canada 1.5%
- Chile 1%
- Australia 1%
- US 0.5%
So the US actually gains the least from the TPP.