Previewing the Australian election
Crikey’s Poll Bludger is forecasting:
- Coalition 42%
- Labor 34%
- Greens 11%
- Xenophon Team 4%
- Palmer United 0%
On a two party preferred basis that is:
- Coalition 51%
- Labor 49%
The seat projections is:
- Coalition 80 (-10)
- Labor 66 (+11)
- Others 4 (-1)
The betting markets have the Coalition paying just $1.11 and Labor $8.00 so a Labor win would be a huge upset. A hung Parliament is at $5.50.
The Senate is far more difficult to forecast with the voting preferences but Crikey says most likely is:
- Queensland – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 1, Others 2 (Katter, One Nation)
- Victoria – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Others 1 (Sex Party)
- NSW – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Others 1 (LDP)
- WA – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Others 1 (LDP)
- SA – Coalition 4, Labor 3, Greens 1, Xenophon 4
- Tasmania – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Others 1 (Lambie)
- ACT – Coalition 1, Labor 1
- NT – Coalition 1, Labor 1
So in total this would be Coalition 31, Labor 25, Greens 10, Xenophon 4, LDP 2, Others 4. You need 39 votes to pass in the Senate so the small parties will hold the balance of power on this forecast.
What about the joint setting to pass the laws that triggered the double dissolution. You have a combined 226 MPs voting so need 114 to pass a law in a joint setting.
80 plus 31 is 111. So they again will need Independents or another party. With LDP they get close at 113.
But this is all forecasts. We’ll see tomorrow how it ends up. With a non-proportional system, results can vary much more greatly than under MMP etc.