Labor crushes the coalition
At the beginning of the year the betting markets had Labour very unlikely to retain office. But over three months the polls swung their way. However the actual results have far exceeded the polls. As of writing Labour have won 85 seats (up 7) but with 19 seats still to be called. The Coalition is on just 36 seats.
At this stage the two party preferred vote is 55% Labor and 45% Coalition.
Even worse for the Coalition, leader Peter Dutton has lost his seat. And unlike Canada, there is no tradition of an MP in a safe seat falling on their sword to allow the leader back in. So the leadership front runners appear to be Deputy Leader Sussan Ley and Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor.
So far the ALP has won 12 seats off the Coalition and 2 off the Greens. So they should finish up north of 90 seats. The lead in 8 seats, If the leads in all the uncalled seats remain, the results would be:
- Labor 93
- Coalition 40
- Independents 15
- Greens 2
This would be the worst result for the Coalition since 1943. Their loss of so many city seats to Independents will make it very hard for them to get a majority again.