Republicans’ growing unity behind Donald Trump has helped pull him just one percentage point below Hillary Clinton and placed GOP (Grand Old Party – or Republican) leaders who resist him in a vulnerable position, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.
The Post-ABC Tracking Poll continues to find a very tight race, with Clinton at 46 per cent and Trump at 45 per cent among likely voters in interviews from Tuesday through Friday, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson at four per cent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at two per cent.
The result is similar to a 47-45 margin in the previous wave released Saturday, though smaller than found in other surveys this week. When likely voters are asked to choose between Clinton and Trump alone, Clinton stands at 49 per cent to Trump’s 46 per cent, a margin that is still statistically insignificant.
It is insignificant in that it is less than 95% probable Clinton leads. The probability is 83%.
Of course only one poll but the race has got tighter. A few days ago Trump was at 12% to win and now is at 23% on 538’s polls plus model.
Currently Trump has 215 electoral votes to Clinton’s 323. The states he is closest in but trailing are:
- Florida 0.6%, 29 votes
- North Carolina 1.2%, 15 votes
- Nevada 1.5%, 6 votes
- Colorada 4.8%, 9 votes
Those four would give him 59 more to make it 274 Trump and Clinton 264.