Latest UK projections

Electoral Calculus has the average of the with Conservatives at 49% and Labour at 27%. Their seat projection is:

  • Conservatives 419 (+88)
  • Labour 158 (-74)
  • SNP 45 (-11)
  • Lib Dems 7 (-1)
  • Others 21 (-2)

So that is a projected majority of 188 seats over all the other parties combined.

What is interesting is how badly Labour are doing with working class voters. The Conservatives lead Labour in the following socio-economic groups:

  • C1 +24% (was -5% in 2015)
  • C2 +12% (was -3% in 2015)
  • DE +7% (was -20% in 2015)

That change in DE voters is massive. DE are “semi-skilled & unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations”.

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