What Remain and Leave voters are doing
A very good analysis at The Guardian on polls showing what EU Remain and Leave voters are doing, compared to their 2015 vote.
For every 100 Remain voters they are finding:
- Conservatives gain 1 vote
- Labour loses 4 votes
- UKIP loses 1 vote
- Lib Dems gains 4 votes
For every 100 Leave voters they find:
- UKIP loses 6 votes
- Labour loses 5 votes
- Conservatives gain 11 votes
So overall for every 100 voters:
- UKIP loses 7 votes
- Labour loses 9 votes
- Lib Dems gain 4 votes
- Conservatives gain 12 votes
This helps explains why the Conservatives are so strong. They are picking up Leave voters from UKIP and Labour but also holding their Remain voters. While Labour is losing Remain voters to Lib Dems and Leave voters to the Conservatives.