UK hung Parliament

With just one seat to declare the UK results are:

  • Conservatives 318 (-12)
  • Labour 261 (+29)
  • SNP 35 (-21)
  • Lib Dems 12 (+4)
  • DUP 10 (+2)
  • Sinn Fein 7 (+3)
  • Plaid Cymru 4 (+1)
  • Greens 1 (nc)
  • Independent 1 (nc)
  • Speaker 1 (nc)

The SDLP and UUP lost all five of their seats between them and UKIP its one seat.

Take away Sinn Fein’s 7 seats (as they don’t take them up_ and you have 643 which means 322 to govern. Conservatives are four short so they will rely on the votes of the DUP. This will make things difficult in Northern Ireland as the UK Giovernment will no longer be able to be the honest broker there between DUP and Sinn Fein when things get tense, as they will be dependent on DUP.

It is a disaster for Theresa May who will be gone soon rather than later and a triump for Jeremy Corbyn who is safe as Leader. It is not that Corbyn was at all a good campaigner – but that he exceeded such low expectations and Theresa May had an awful campaign. They gained votes from UKIP but also lost them to Labour.

For the UK it is a terrible result as a minority Government will make it near impossible to have a sensible position for Brexit negotiations, so expect to see a hard Brexit and/or another election next year.

It would have been better for the UK to have even had a majority Labour Government, than a minority one. And the rest of us could have been amused watching Venezuela style polices implemented in the UK.

In terms of the vote share, the results are:

  • Conseratives 42.4% (+5.5%)
  • Labour 40.0% (+9.5%)
  • Lib Dems 7.4% (-0.5%)
  • SNP 3.0% (-1.7%)
  • UKIP 1.8% (-10.8%)
  • Greens 1.6% (-2.1%)

If we look at Scotland, it was the one bright light for the Tories:

  • SNP 35 seats (-21)
  • Conservatives 13 (+12)
  • Labour 7 (+6)
  • Lib Dems 4 (+3)

The Scottish Conservative Leader Ruth Davidson is a real rockstar and could even become First Minister of Scotland in the future.

So if Theresa May goes, who could be the next Tory leader:

  • Boris Johnson – has the genuine quality – what you see is what you get – popular but divisive
  • Philip Hammond – Chancellor and former Foreign Minister. Safe but boring. Had fallen out with May.
  • Amber Rudd – Home Secretary, high profile but almost lost her seat
  • David Davis – Brexit Secretary. Hated by Cameronites

 

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