Finally the inevitable has happened and Metiria Turei has resigned as Green Party co-leader. She remains a candidate and MP.
She has resigned for two reasons. The first is that she was turning the Green Party into an endangered species. The Newshub Reid Reseach poll had them losing a third of their support to 8%. But that poll was mainly done before Monday’s resignation of two Green MPs. It would be fair to assume they are now even lower than that.
The second reason she resigned is that her story simply fails to hold up as more and more evidence emerges. She told a narrative that suited her political purposes, but that narrative is one which is not holding up under scrutiny.
So Turei has gone. We will await the next round of polls to see what impact this has. But here is what Newshub has it:
- National 44.4 (-0.8%)
- Labour 33.1% (+9.0%)
- NZ First 9.2% (-3.8%)
- Greens 8.3% (-4.7%)
- TOP 2.0% (nc)
- Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
- ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
- United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
So a great result for Labour and Jacinda Ardern. She is almost level pegging with Bill English now so it is definitely a full on contest for Government.
However despite a week of relentlessly gushing headlines over Jacinda, National has lost only 0.8%. Basically Jacinda has attracted back to Labour supporters from NZ First and Greens.
When Andrew Little was Leader, this was looking like a rerun of 2002. Now it looks more like 2005 with Labour having become competitive again and it almost turning into an FPP election. However like in 2005, the polls show the minor parties would determine who governs.
Labour is in a much stronger position, but having taken votes off both NZ First and Greens. But as they are both weaker, they still need both parties to be able to govern. The ultimate for Labour is to get into a position where they could govern just with NZ First or the Greens – not both.
And while Turei going should help the Greens, it is not impossible that their brand has been so damaged they will struggle to get over the threshold.
So an exciting six and a half weeks ahead of us.
This statement from Checkpoint is an important part of the story. Basically Turei’s portrayal of herself of facing a choice between starvation and theft is not accurate, and very insulting to the extended family.