Guest Post: Has the Coalition Government jumped the shark…already?!
A guest post by Kimbo:
Every government must manage the inevitable ups and downs that come its way. The last one, over the course of nine years had its share, some major, others footnotes in political history: the GFC, South Canterbury Finance, three (literal) earthquakes, Richard Worth, Pansy Wong, Phil Heatley, Aaron Gilmore, Todd Barclay, Teapotgate, Ponytailgate and losing a Green Party/citizens’ initiated referendum over the partial sale of state assets. As British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once answered when asked what was the driving force in politics, “Events, my dear fellow, events!” So the real test in politics is how well one manages those events.
I’d suggest that already the current Labour-NZ First coalition, along with their Green confidence and supply partners, is struggling. Consider the following, not just the events, but also the accompanying (mis)management:
* A grope and booze and “what did the Prime minister know and when did she know it?” scandal involving teenagers at the youth camp of a political party that proudly espouses the rhetoric and values of 21st Century gender and sexual politics.
* A foreign minister who was engaged in his own idiosyncratic policy towards Russia in defiance of world opinion.
* The average to downright inept performance of three of Labour’s stars when they were in Opposition, Phil Twyford, Chris Hipkins and Kelvin Davis.
* The bad optics of new ministers overspending and misusing transport.
* Threats to the CEO and independent board of Air New Zealand by a cabinet minister.
* Allegations of stand over tactics to silence National MPs criticising NZ First’s flagship Regional Development Fund.
* And now the resignation of a top Radio New Zealand staff member, who was the cause of Parliament being misled about a meeting she had with a Government Minister.
More troubling for the Ardern administration, it’s been only six months since the last election but even that relatively short period is deceiving. Due to Winston Peters’ protracted coalition negotiations, when the new government eventually took power there was only a short few weeks left of the 2017 political year. That was insufficient time for any reasonable judge to assess their worth, hence the press and New Zealand public were rightly generous, especially in the light of Jacinda Ardern’s undoubted charm and charisma. But once you factor in the long New Zealand holiday period that stretches to the end of January, in reality it has been less than two months since the political year kicked off in earnest. After a good start – Ardern made a good impression at Waitangi, and followed it up well on her tour of the Pacific with Winston Peters – it has suddenly turned bad real fast. Waitangi Day sure seems a long time ago. and we haven’t even reached Easter!
The real problem for Ardern is what does she do next to get her management, and maybe even generation of favourable events going? Winston Peters will likely never change, and already Shane Jones and Ron Mark have much of the swagger and arrogance that characterised New Zealand First “tight five” Maori electorate MPs of 1996-98. Also, Ardern herself will soon be taking a break, so she will have little, if any ability to manage the events.
While she’s gone, two Labour cabinet ministers will need to step up, and, as good senior players do in an All Black team, back up the coach and captain by setting the standard for others to follow.
One is Andrew Little, who, no matter what one thinks of his attitudes to penal reform, has nonetheless performed well. And he needed too, because he was the one who threw the Hail Mary pass that landed Ardern where she is now! Time will tell if it turns out to be a hospital pass.
The other is Grant Robertson. So far he’s been able to buy time, delaying spending specifics until he delivers his first budget. It had better be a good one, backed up by a good performance to rebut the scrutiny that will be coming his way. If, not, then the government is toast, because without a solid Minister of Finance, the suspicions of incompetence, critical media coverage and declining business and public confidence will only exacerbate.
Nevertheless, there is one sure thing in the current Labour-led Government’s favour. It has been over forty years since a New Zealand government failed to win at least a second term. That indicates that the electorate favours stability and giving the incumbent the benefit of the doubt at the next election, and usually the one after that too. It hasn’t been since 1975 that Rob Muldoon handed the ill-fated third Labour Government an exact reversal of the landslide that delivered it into power in 1972.
Those old enough to remember, or who have studied the history will recall the events and accompanying mismanagement that led up to Bill Rowling’s defeat, and they are sobering for the current government to consider how events can spiral out of control if you don’t get the management right:
* A horrendous reversal in our terms of trade and balance of payments as a result of the first oil shock of 1973
* The tragic and untimely death of Labour’s only superstar, Prime Minister and pioneering Foreign Minister, Norman Kirk
* The inability of his replacement, Bill Rowling to make an impression next to the dynamic and barnstorming Muldoon
* A massive failure to deliver on an over-promised affordable housing policy (no, Phil Twyford wasn’t the first!)
* An unpopular compulsory superannuation scheme.
* A succession of blunders and apparent ineptitude by cabinet ministers
* And an embarrassing lingering scandal in the form of the Bill Sutch affair.
Yet even with all that combination of bad luck events and bad management, the 1975 election result came as a huge surprise. I’d suggest, based on just the last two months, and unless something changes quickly, the defeat of the current government at the next election will be no surprise at all. Indeed, it may have jumped the shark already.