Richard Harman writes at Politik:
What we have seen in the past is that when NZ First believes its survival is at stake it becomes an unpredictable and potentially destructive force as it seeks to define itself in its traditional role as an anti-establishment party.
The last time they went to an election as part of a Government, they ended up out of Parliament.
POLITIK understands the party’s leader, Winston Peters, has sounded out friends about whether he should withdraw from a full coalition arrangement to a confidence and supply agreement which would give him more freedom to oppose some Labour policies but which would paint a picture of disunity within the Government.
Harman is well connected so if he says Winston is consulting on pulling out of the coalition, then it is a serious possibility.
One senior National MP, looking at this, speculated that Labour could lock NZ First’s support in by doing a deal over an electorate seat with them which would ensure their return to Parliament.
They can try. But voters often make up their own mind and if voters realise a vote for NZ First is a vote for a Labour/Greens Government then voters in seats such as Northland and Whangarei will be very wary.