UK Labour’s worst result since 1935

The 2019 election saw UK win the fewest number of seats (203) since 1935. It is a historic low. And with the next election in 2024, by then it will have been 50 years since Labour won an election without Tony Blair as leader.

Corbyn going as will help, but so long as the extreme keep control of the leadership and policy, they may never recover some they have lost. They are at risk of becoming the party of urban liberals in London, and no longer the working class party.

In Scotland came 4th behind the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, winning just one seat.

The final result (2 to go) shows pretty accurate polls and projections.

The final vote share was:

  • Cons 43.6%
  • Lab 32.2%
  • Lib Dems 11.5%

The six of final pre-election polls all had the Conservatives at 43% to 45% and between 32% and 35%. So pretty accurate. Maybe slightly too high for Labour.

The final seat count was:

  • Cons 364
  • Lab 203
  • SNP 48
  • Lib Dems 12

The projection sites were all accurate in predicting a Conservative majority but under-projected for the Conservatives. They had them between 337 and 349 and between 221 and 235. Electoral Calculus projecting a majority of 48, with the actual being 78.

The Exit Poll was most accurate but slightly out the other way. It projected a majority of 86.

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