21 so called Conservative MPs have voted with Jeremy Corbyn to stop Brexit. Ruling out a no deal means that the UK Government has no negotiating power to change the deal that has already been rejected by Parliament multiple times. It makes Brexit basically impossible.
So there will be an election.
The latest poll has the Conservatives at 35%, Labour at 25%, Lib Dems at 16% and Brexit Party at 11%.
But this is FPP, so what that means in terms of seats, according to Electoral Calculus, is:
- Conservatives 378 (+60)
- Labour 184 (-78)
- Lib Dems 31 (+19)
- Brexit Party 0
- SNP 35
- Others 21
That would be a majority of 106. Of course things will change during the election campaign.
The latest net approval ratings for party leaders is:
- Boris Johnson +6%
- Jeremy Corbyn -59%
- Jo Swinson -5%
- Nigel Farage -11%
- Nicola Sturgeon -14%
I guess Corbyn can only improve!