How will Iowa vote

The Iowa caucuses will be starting in the next 24 hours and the results of the caucuses will probably have a significant impact on the contest to win the Democratic nomination. There tend to be three impacts from the Iowa results:

  1. If you win, you get a big bump in the polls in the next states, and nationally
  2. If you don’t win, but do better than expected you get a bump and momentum
  3. If you do significantly worse than expected, your support may dry up and you may pull out.

The most accurate poll in Iowa is done by Ann Selzer and has correctly predicted the Democratic winner in Iowa since 1988. But due to a staffer expanding the font size and leaving out the name of a candidate, they have not released the poll. This means there is no clarity about how the candidates are placed, and expected to do.

The Five Thirty Eight average has Sanders at 28%, Biden 27%, Buttigieg 18%, Warren 15% and Klobuchar at 8%.

They say the chance of each candidate winning Iowa is Sanders 40%, Biden 35%, Buttigieg 14%, Warren 9% and Klobuchar 2%.

Iowa is not representative of the country or the overall Democratic voting base. It is 91% white. And the Democrats tend to be very liberal and the Republicans very conservative. But despite that winning here does help you later as you get momentum.

Many senior Democrats will be hoping Sanders doesn’t win. Why? Look at this Gallup poll of which demographics people say they wouldn’t vote for.

Only 4% say they wouldn’t vote for a black candidate, 5% a Catholic candidate, 5% a Hispanic candidate and 6% a woman candidate. So what are the traits which are most off putting to overall voters?

53% say they wouldn’t vote for a socialist, 40% wouldn’t vote for an atheist and 37% wouldn’t vote for someone over the age of 70.

So having your candidate be a 79 year old atheist socialist would seem to be a really good way to get Trump re-elected. It is hard to think of a more toxic combination.

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