Five Thirty Eight democratic primary model

now has a model to predict the likely Democratic nominee. It is based not just on the polls, but also on events such as the typical bump you get from winning Iowa, California etc.

It will of course change over time.

At this stage the odds of a candidate winning the majority of pledged delegates is:

  1. Joe Biden 38%
  2. Bernie Sanders 24%
  3. No-one 14%
  4. Elizabeth Warren 13%
  5. Pete Buttigieg 10%
  6. Other 1%

The projected delegates are:

  1. Joe Biden 1,434
  2. Bernie Sanders 1,074
  3. Elizabeth Warren 677
  4. Pete Buttigieg 532

You need 1,990 for a majority.

Also of note is Sanders has now taken the lead in the highly respected Selzer poll in Iowa.

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