Biden now at 88% chance to win

The latest 538 forecast has:

  • Biden 88%
  • Contested convention 10%
  • Sanders 2%

Also Sanders has said he won’t contest the convention if Biden has a plurality which 538 has 94% likely.

But as we have seen, events can change things. Sanders looked near unstoppable after Nevada. However the states still to come are not very fruitful for him.

The probabilities for the next few states are:

  • Michigan: Biden 76%
  • Washington: Sanders 62%
  • Missouri: Biden 91%
  • Mississippi: Biden 97%
  • Idaho: Sanders 51%
  • North Dakota: Biden 59%
  • Democrats Aboard: Sanders 55%

The states in which Sanders leads are marginal. The ones Biden leads in are near in the bag.

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