Now that Biden is the presumptive nominee we can start to look at general election polls.
Now last time the national polls were accurate in terms of the popular vote, but not accurate in terms of state polls, so Trump won despite losing the popular vote.
The current RCP polling average has Biden 6.4% ahead of Trump. That is better than in 2016 when Clinton won the popular vote by 2.2% (but lost electoral college). But that doesn’t mean he’ll win as all about the marginal states.
So let’s look at current state polling:
- Wisconsin: Trump 45%, Biden 45%
- Florida: Trump 49%, Biden 48%
- Michigan: Trump 42%, Biden 47%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 44%, Biden 47%
- North Carolina: Trump 45%, Biden 49%
- Arizona: Trump 44%, Biden 48%
- Minnesota: Trump 38%, Biden 50%
- Texas: Trump 48%, Biden 45%
- Georgia: Trump 51%, Biden 44%
Most of these states are within the margin of error, and of course campaigning yet to seriously start. So this is a snapshot, not a prediction.
If one assumes Trump holds Wisconsin, we have:
- 2016: Trump wins 306 votes
- Trump holds Wisconsin, Florida, Texas, Georgia
- Biden holds Minnesota
- Biden wins Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15) and Arizona (11)
- Result would be Trump 244, Biden 298
Soon today’s polls Biden is ahead. But it doesn’t need much movement for Trump to win.
Trump can afford to lose 26 electoral votes to hold on. So if he retains Michigan and Pennsylvania he wins 270 to 268.
If he retains Pennsylvania and Arizona it is 269 each and the House has (currently) a majority of Republican controlled delegations so he would win.
If he loses Pennsylvania, he can’t afford to lose any other seats.
So expect to see a lot of campaigning in Pennsylvania.