UMR poll July 2021
Newshub has details of the UMR poll in late July 2021.
Party Vote
- Labour 43% (-5% from last UMR poll)
- National 28% (+4%)
- ACT 13% (+2%)
- Greens 7% (-1%)
- NZ First 4.4% (-0.6%)
- Maori Party 1.7% (+0.2%)
Seats
- Labour 56 (-9 from election)
- National 36 (+3)
- ACT 17 (+7)
- Greens 9 (-1)
- Maori 2 (nc)
Preferred PM
- Jacinda Ardern 50% (-5%)
- David Seymour 14% (+2%)
- Judith Collins 11% (nc)
Covid-19 response
- Good 63%
- Poor 14%
Country Direction
- Right direction 62%
The key takeaway is that the gap between CL and CR parties closed in one month from 21% to 9%. That is a large and significant movement.
However a 9% gap is still a very decent lead, and National remains in the 20s, which is not a position you can form a Government from.
Seymour at 14% Preferred PM is significant. It has been a long time since a minor party leader polled so highly. According to my data series from Colmar Brunton, the last time a minor party leader was at 14% or higher was:
- Winston Peters in Oct 1996
- Jim Anderton in Feb 1996
So basically 25 years ago.