UMR poll July 2021

Newshub has details of the UMR poll in late July 2021.

Party Vote

  • Labour 43% (-5% from last UMR poll)
  • National 28% (+4%)
  • ACT 13% (+2%)
  • Greens 7% (-1%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (-0.6%)
  • Maori Party 1.7% (+0.2%)

Seats

  • Labour 56 (-9 from election)
  • National 36 (+3)
  • ACT 17 (+7)
  • Greens 9 (-1)
  • Maori 2 (nc)

Preferred PM

  • Jacinda Ardern 50% (-5%)
  • David Seymour 14% (+2%)
  • Judith Collins 11% (nc)

Covid-19 response

  • Good 63%
  • Poor 14%

Country Direction

  • Right direction 62%

The key takeaway is that the gap between CL and CR parties closed in one month from 21% to 9%. That is a large and significant movement.

However a 9% gap is still a very decent lead, and National remains in the 20s, which is not a position you can form a Government from.

Seymour at 14% Preferred PM is significant. It has been a long time since a minor party leader polled so highly. According to my data series from Colmar Brunton, the last time a minor party leader was at 14% or higher was:

  • Winston Peters in Oct 1996
  • Jim Anderton in Feb 1996

So basically 25 years ago.

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