There have been 11 ballots for the Speaker of the US House and the deadlock continues with 20 Republicans refusing to vote for the candidate selected by the majority of their party – Kevin McCarthy.
Such an outcome would never happen in NZ, but we have far more centralised parties. In the US there is very little in the way of a party hierarchy, and the parties are more brands than united disciplined organisations. The primary system means many representatives care more about winning a primary in their seat, than what is good for the overall party.
McCarthy is an unappealing Speaker. He grovels to Trump, and seems to have few principles. But he is the person 90% of the GOP House support. But they need the other 10%.
In the short term this is wonderful for Democrats. The Republicans look totally focused on themselves, and divided. They have won the House but can’t even elect a Speaker.
Eventually, there seem to be three ways to finally get a Speaker.
- McCarthy gives another concessions to the Freedom Caucus rebels that they vote for him. This seems unlikely, as he has already caved in to many of their demands and they are still voting no.
- McCarthy accepts he can never get the numbers and someone like Steve Scalise is elected Speaker. This is a rerun of 2014 when McCarthy also failed to get the numbers and Paul Ryan became the compromise. The big difference though is in 2014 it was worked out in advance, not after 11 floor votes.
- McCarthy becomes unviable but moderate Republicans don’t want to reward the rebels and they vote with Democrats to elect a moderate Republican as Speaker. Note it doesn’t have to be a current member of Congress. This is the most unlikely outcome.
In the meantime, with no Speaker the new President pro tempere