Stuff’s 2023 predictions

Stuff has made their predictions for 2023, which I copy below along with my comments.

1. Covid-19 will no longer play a meaningful role in politics for the first time since 2019. The consequences of Covid will continue to play out, but regardless of case numbers, the political train will have moved on. DPF: Already the case.
2. At least one leader of a major political party will no longer be leader, or will have announced their exit, by the end of the year. DPF: Likely, but not certain. If Labour lose, Ardern will go. If National lose but are close, I would see no reason for a change.
3. Airfares will continue to be expensive and Air New Zealand’s fares, in particular, will become a political headache for the Government. DPF: Agree will stay expensive, but not sure it will be a problem for the Government.
4. After a busy year of post-Covid travel, Jacinda Ardern will make a trip to China, being the first leader to do so since 2016 and the first since Xi Jinping has really started asserting his authority over the country. DPF: Actually with current sentiment, I don’t think she will go there in an election year unless as part of a broader meeting of leaders.
5. With the major three waters legislation shepherded through Parliament, Nanaia Mahuta will lose the local government portfolio in a cabinet reshuffle, but she will retain foreign affairs. DPF: Agree.
6. There will be a new political party in Parliament. Whether it is an NZ First comeback, TOP, New Conservatives or another party, the times seem right for a political disrupter to come to the people’s house. This is extremely rare in New Zealand politics and tough to do, but 2023 could just be the year. DPF: I think NZ First will make it.
7. There will be another sizeable anti-government/vaccine type protest out the front of Parliament, although it will last only for a day. DPF: Of course there will be a sizeable protest at some stage. Like saying it will rain.
8. The Māori Party will win two electorates: Rawai Waititi’s current seat of Waiariki and the seat of Te Tai Hauāuru, which Speaker of the House and MP since 2014 Adrian Rurawhe is not expected to recontest. The party will bring in at least one other MP from its list. DPF: Bold call but probably correct.
9. Ayesha Verrall will become the health minister, while the overworked and underrated Andrew Little will be moved on to other portfolios as part of the reshuffle at the start of the year. DPF: Underrated?? Agree he must and will be shifted.
10. Transport Minister Michael Wood will be compelled to write Auckland a big cheque for light rail in the face of Mayor Wayne Brown’s refusal to pay for the current plan, or the plan will be changed, yet again. DPF: No cheque but no progress either except press releases and consultants.
11. Labour MPs Deborah Russell, Barbara Edmonds and Duncan Webb will all be promoted into Ardern’s ministry. DPF: On talent, they should be.
12. More Labour Cabinet ministers will announce their retirement before the general election. DPF: Almost certainly.
13. When the Green Party holds its AGM and the co-leadership positions fall vacant current co-leader James Shaw will be re-elected without any fuss, unlike this year. Marama Davidson will remain leader. DPF: I hope so.
14. New Zealand will go into recession, however it won’t officially be a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – until after the election. DPF: Agree only one negative quarter before the election.
15. Inflation – as measured through the Consumer Price Index – won’t fall below 6.5% prior to the election. But the Reserve Bank won’t need to ratchet up interest rates any higher than its currently predicted high water mark of 5.5%, and Adrian Orr and the bank’s monetary policy committee may be able to stop south of that. DPF: Disagree, I think it will be lower than that by the election.
16. Te Whatu Ora’s Health New Zealand’s backlog of elective surgeries will remain and even blow out further, from about 5.2 months of extra work estimated in October. DPF: Yes, likely.
17. The drop in house prices will stabilise by the middle of the year. DPF: Inevitable.
18. A potential 4 year-term for parliament will become the subject of more serious debate and perhaps a campaign in the coming year. DPF: Sadly I doubt it.
19. Jacinda Ardern will continue to be preferred prime minister in public polls up until the election. DPF: The PM almost always is the Preferred PM in the polls. But during the campaign, this may change.
20. Regardless of whether Labour forms Government after the election, at least 18 of its MPs will lose their jobs. DPF: This is effectively saying Labour will drop to no more than 35%, which seems likely.
21. With the FIFA Women’s World Cup – co-hosted by New Zealand finishing in late August, and the Men’s Rugby World Cup finishing on October 28 in France, the general election will be held on the second or fourth Saturday of November. DPF: Agree it will be November.