Stuff’s 2021 predictions

Stuff has made their annual predictions. I’ve copied them below, along with my comments on them.

  1. Facing serious pressure on housing prices, Labour will extend the Bright Line Test, arguing this doesn’t qualify as a new tax – just a new way to crack down on people avoiding paying their fair share. DPF: agree they will break their promise and do this.
  2. An electorate MP will leave Parliament, sparking a by-election. DPF: Disagree. Unlikely.
  3. Congestion charging will be announced – or at least consulted on – for Auckland. National will struggle with whether or not to oppose it. DPF: Consulted on but not announced.
  4. Local governments will continue to screw up, necessitating the appointment of at least one commissioner. The threat of an observer in Wellington will linger but not eventuate. DPF: Agree re screw up and a commissioner for Invercargill is possible.
  5. The Government will implement a clean car emissions standard, but the EV fleet will remain below 30,000 by the end of the year, a tiny fraction of the overall fleet. DPF: AGree
  6. Barring an outbreak, the trans-tasman bubble will open before the start of March. DPF: Disagree. 2nd quarter.
  7. No one will resign from Cabinet in scandal or under pressure. DPF: Agree for 2021.
  8. New Cabinet minister Peeni Henare will say something that he will live to regret. DPF: Pretty likely.
  9. A new MP from the class of 2020 will greatly embarrass themselves on behavioural grounds. DPF: Fairly safe prediction.
  10. A decision will be made on the future of light rail in Auckland, although don’t expect shovels in the ground. DPF: Is this a prediction? Saying there will be a decision but not what it is.
  11. The drive towards a four year term will continue – but Labour will eventually concede that a referendum would be needed to make this change. DPF: Again not really a prediction.
  12. New Zealand will sign up to a much tougher NDC under the Paris Agreement after the Climate Change Commission recommends it. National struggles to bring itself behind the Commission’s first emissions budgets, igniting a quiet civil war within the party. DPF: Agree re NDC.
  13. The REINZ median house price in Wellington will hit $1m and prices will rise throughout the country. DPF: Agree and quite soon.
  14. The Government’s books will be in better shape than feared with a deficit $10b-15b lower than what’s currently forecast. Unemployment will continue to rise, but it will peak below 7 per cent. DPF: Agree
  15. The work towards a new intelligence agency, as recommended by the Royal Commission’s inquiry into March 15, is slow and unfinished by the end of the year. Incumbents within the system generally resist the change. DPF: Agree
  16. The country will hear extremely little from Winston Peters or from the husk of a party that is NZ First. DPF: Hopefully
  17. Oranga Tamariki will have a new chief executive before the year is out. DPF: Probable
  18. The rollout of the Covid vaccine will be patchy and messy. By the end of 2021 there will still be people who want it who haven’t got it. DPF: Highly likely
  19. The Government will come under serious pressure to open the borders widely as other countries get their vaccines fully rolled out. DPF: Of course

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