Belich will win

The Spinoff reports:

A pair of sitting Labour MPs who share an office on Ponsonby Rd and are both former employment lawyers will go head to head for the party candidacy in the inner Auckland electorate of Mt Albert, a longstanding Labour safe seat. Both Camilla Belich and Helen White entered parliament in the red tide of 2020 as Labour romped to a historic MMP majority in what then leader Jacinda Ardern called “the red wave”. 

Neither was successful in their electorate runs, with Helen White pipped by the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick in Auckland Central and Camilla Belich finishing with about half the votes of Act leader David Seymour in Epsom, but ahead of the National candidate, Paul Goldsmith. Both White and Belich assumed list seats, however, after being ranked, respectively, 48th and 30th.

Belich will win, for two reasons.

The first is that she is seen as a future senior Cabinet Minister, while White is seen as the person who failed to win Auckland Central.

The second is that Labour’s selections are not decided by rank and file members, but by unions and head office and Belich will have all the Head Office votes.