Who’s in and out on Labour’s list
Labour has released their list for 2023 election, so now we can assess who is likely to be back or not.
The table below shows who would get in at different levels of the party vote. In the latest Curia-TU poll they were at 31% which gets them 43 seats, down from 65 last election.
To assess who gets in on the list, we need to make assumptions over which electorates they retain, and the likely wasted vote. Again the latest Curia-TU poll there was 8% wasted vote, so we’ll use that.
They won 46 electorate seats. Let’s assume they lose those where their majority over National is under 3,000 – Northland, Whangarei, Maungakiekie, Tukituki, Upper Harbour, Northcote, New Plymouth, Hamilton East and Otaki. Also Hamilton West stays National and they lose Te Tai Hauauru to the Māori Party. That is 11 seats, so leaves them 35 electorate seats.
On current polling they would get eight List MPs, which would be Robertson, Tinetti, Verrall, Jackson, Prime, Rurawhe, Little and Parker.
| List Place | Name | Electorate | Win | Eff. Place | PV Needed |
| 1 | Hipkins | Remutaka | Y | ||
| 2 | Davis | Te Tai Tokerau | Y | ||
| 3 | Sepuloni | Kelston | Y | ||
| 4 | Robertson | N | 1 | 25.8% | |
| 5 | Woods | Wigram | Y | ||
| 6 | Tinetti | Tauranga | N | 2 | 26.5% |
| 7 | Verrall | N | 3 | 27.3% | |
| 8 | Jackson | N | 4 | 28.1% | |
| 9 | Prime | Northland | N | 5 | 28.9% |
| 10 | O’Connor | WCT | Y | ||
| 11 | Rurawhe | N | 6 | 29.6% | |
| 12 | Little | N | 7 | 30.4% | |
| 13 | Parker | N | 8 | 31.2% | |
| 14 | Henare | Tamaki Makauru | Y | ||
| 15 | Radhakrishnan | Maungakiekie | N | 9 | 31.9% |
| 16 | McAnulty | Wairarapa | Y | ||
| 17 | Andersen | Hutt South | Y | ||
| 18 | Edmonds | Mana | Y | ||
| 19 | Luxton | Rangitata | Y | ||
| 20 | Webb | Christchuch Central | Y | ||
| 21 | Tirakatene | Te Tai Tonga | Y | ||
| 22 | Russell | New Lynn | Y | ||
| 23 | Brooking | Dunedin North | Y | ||
| 24 | Salesa | Panmure-Otahuhu | Y | ||
| 25 | Utikere | Palmerston North | Y | ||
| 26 | Belich | Epsom | N | 10 | 32.7% |
| 27 | McLellan | Banks Peninsula | Y | ||
| 28 | Halbert | Northcote | N | 11 | 33.5% |
| 29 | Bennett | New Plymouth | N | 12 | 34.3% |
| 30 | Walters | Upper Harbour | N | 13 | 35.0% |
| 31 | Dansey | Hamilton East | N | 14 | 35.8% |
| 32 | Rosewarne | Waimakariri | N | 15 | 36.6% |
| 33 | Chen | N | 16 | 37.4% | |
| 34 | Kanongata’a | Papakura | N | 17 | 38.1% |
| 35 | Roberts | TKC | N | 18 | 38.9% |
| 36 | Coffey | East Coast | Y | ||
| 37 | Omer | Wellington Central | Y | ||
| 38 | Leavasa | Takanini | Y | ||
| 39 | Boynton | Waiariki | N | 19 | 39.7% |
| 40 | Lorck | Tukituki | N | 20 | 40.4% |
| 41 | Hampton | North Shore | N | ||
| 42 | Boyack | Nelson | Y | ||
| 43 | Warren-Clark | Whangarei | N | 21 | 41.2% |
| 44 | Craig | Invercargill | N | 22 | 42.0% |
| 45 | Wood | Mt Roskill | Y | ||
| 46 | Ngobi | Otaki | N | 23 | 42.8% |
| 47 | White | Mt Albert | Y | ||
| 48 | Wllliams | Manurewa | Y | ||
| 49 | Twyford | Te Atatu | Y | ||
| 50 | Lewis | Whanganui | Y | ||
| 51 | Pallett | Ilam | Y | ||
| 52 | Leary | Taieri | Y | ||
| 53 | Sosene | Mangere | Y | ||
| 54 | Taikato | BoP | N | 24 | 43.5% |
| 55 | Muller-Pallares | Whangaparaoa | N | 25 | 44.3% |
| 56 | Fitzsimons | Rongotai | Y | ||
| 57 | Davidson | Christchurch East | Y | ||
| 58 | Ruane | N | 26 | 45.1% | |
| 59 | Solomone | Tamaki | N | 27 | 45.9% |
| 60 | Hutchinson | Napier | Y |
If you assume they hold more electorate seats, then they get that many fewer List MPs. If you assume they lose more, they get that many more.
On current polling and assumptions they lose Radharishnan, Belich, Halbert, Bennett, Walters, Rosewarne, and all those below them who don’t win their seat.