The ABC reported:

Greenpeace has fired an employee who lost the environmental charity $5.47 million in a failed gamble on international currency markets.

Greenpeace communications director Mike Townsley said the unnamed employee “went above his authority” in agreeing the deal with a broker who was meant to mitigate currency losses for the charity.

So Greenpeace does play the currency markets – this staffer just went too far.

So $5.5 million of donations flushed down the drain.

Greenpeace, known for its militant anti-drilling campaigns at oil rigs in the Arctic, has a total annual budget of about $432 million.

They are a very large multi-national. That’s a bigger turnover than many of the companies they target

The Marlborough Express reports:

Most controversial was Labour’s Janette Walker, who proposed a licence for recreational fishers in the Marlborough Sounds as a way of funding a public advocacy group.

Think about how hideous this is. The Labour candidate wants:

• Recreational fishing to be an activity you need a licence for
• An effective tax (licence fee) on recreational fishers
• The tax to go to some sort of lobby group

What other recreational activities do Labour candidates want licensed? Cycling?

Stuff reports:

Every time the wind blows Craig Newth and his family worry what will happen to a 25 metre gum tree that towers over their house.

The Beach Haven, Auckland, resident says he doesn’t understand why the council won’t allow it to be removed.

Because they’re the Tree Police. Despite Parliament passing several laws, they regard all trees as belonging to them!

Newth says gum trees, also known as widow makers, are notorious for dropping limbs.

A council arborist, Vector worker and private arborist have all on separate occasions said the branches from the tree could injure someone and it should be removed, he says.

But when Newth approached the council they told him resource consent was needed and then declined it on more than one occasion.

You should not need resource consent to chop down your own tree, especially when it is a danger.

Brook Sabin at 3 News reports:

Labour leader David Cunliffe has had to perform a U-turn after this morning announcing Labour was against oil exploration in the Maui’s dolphin mammal sanctuary, when it actually approves.

National has jumped on the gaffe, saying Labour is hypocritical because it allowed 13 wells to be drilled in the area.

The Government has opened up 3000 square kilometres of a marine mammal sanctuary for oil exploration on the North Island’s west coast – home to the Maui’s dolphin. The Green Party obtained documents revealing that last week.

This morning Labour came out opposed, aligning itself with the Greens.

“I don’t see any need for the exploration permits to overlap the sanctuary, so yes, I’m opposed to that,” said Mr Cunliffe.

But this afternoon saw a U-turn from Labour, because the last Labour Government approved 13 wells to be drilled in the area.

But it turns out Mr Cunliffe is open to exploration in the dolphins’ home if “done responsibly”.

So Labour were for it, then against it, and now for it again so long as it is done responsibly.

I’m really looking forward to the next round of public polls!

The Hindu reports:

Following an Intelligence Bureau (IB) report that alleged foreign-funded NGOs were creating obstacles to India’s economic growth, the Home Ministry has clamped down on Greenpeace, an international campaign group present in 40 countries.

In a letter dated 13th June, the Ministry has directed the Reserve Bank of India that all foreign contributions originating from Greenpeace International and Climate Works Foundation — two principal international contributors to Greenpeace India Society — must be kept on hold until individual clearances are obtained from the Ministry for each transaction.

The RBI has been asked to direct banks to this effect. The central bank has also been asked to report to the government if any government department or institution is receiving such funds.

Greenpeace was specifically targeted because the IB report had charged it with orchestrating “massive efforts to take down India’s coal-fired power projects and mining activity.”

So Greenpeace India is funded by Greenpeace International? There are laws restricting the amount foreign companies can donate to NZ political parties. Should money from Greenpeace International be seen as a foreign election donation?

And they have problems in NZ also.  They had a website attacking Simon Bridges, which they have closed down as the Electoral Commission said it was an election advertisement that doesn’t have a promoter statement.  They could of course have simply stuck a promoter statement on the website, but I guess that would not help their court case where they claim to be a charity, not a lobby group.

The Herald reports:

A donation from Donghua Liu to a rowing club linked to a former Labour Cabinet minister has been confirmed.

Duncan Barr, the president of the Hawke’s Bay Rowing Club, said today the millionaire businessman gave $2000 in 2007, which backs up a signed statement from Liu.

Labour have been basically suggesting Liu is mistaken or a liar. They should be very worried that this minor donation has been confirmed, because if he is correct on a $2,000 donation, it is unlikely he’s got around a $100,000 donation.

Mr Barr said the club purchased new rowing blades and said Liu was introduced to the club by Rick Barker, the then Minister for Internal Affairs, whose daughter was a club member.

They were obviously quite close.

Rob Hosking at NBR has a look beyond the 3.3% GDP growth figure. He says the more important data is:

• Real national disposable incomes are up 7.3% over the year (largest increase since 1987)
• Final private consumption rose only 2.7% (3.5% was expected)
• Hence people are saving, not spending, the increased incomes
• This will, if continued, see NZ’s external debt reduce

I can only presume Labour have been saying we have a savings crisis, which is why the situation is improving.

I blogged a few days ago on the profiles of the 10 new National candidates for seats currently held by National.

A reader e-mailed to say:

It would have been useful to include the background of the people they are replacing so we could judge the extent to which each party is diversifying or consolidating. 

So here’s the changes:

• 9 of the retiring MPs are male, and one female. Their replacements are 8 men and 2 women.
• By age – those retiring are 40s – 3 50s – 3 60s – 4. The new candidates are 20s  – 1, 30s –  1, 40s – 6, 50s -2
• By ethnicity, all retiring are European, and of the new candidates eight are European and two are Maori
• By occupation, those retiring are four farmers, an accountant, a doctor, a real estate agent, a lawyer, a diplomat and an engineer. The backgrounds of the new candidates are on the other blog post.

So overall, a marginal increase in women, a significant increase in Maori, a drop in age (as expected) and fewer farmers but more people with a business background.

Questions for Oral Answer.

Questions to Ministers 2.00PM-3.00PM.

The Daily Mail reports:

In humans the ‘eureka moment’ is a commonly known feeling that occurs when we solve a particularly troubling problem.

But new research suggests that we’re not the only animals to experience this – dogs, too, gain pleasure from solving a tricky task.

In a series of experiments, scientists found dogs were happier when they earned a reward by performing a task, rather than just being handed a treat.

Those dogs won’t be Labour voters then! 🙂

The experimental dogs were only given access to the treat on the ramp when they successfully manipulated the three pieces of equipment they had been trained to use.

The control dogs, meanwhile, were given access to the reward when the puzzles were solved by their partner in the other arena, irrespective of how they used the equipment.

The dogs in the pairs were then tasked with performing the same run several times, and also played both roles of experimental and control dog.

The researchers found the experimental dogs were much more excited to actually get in the arena and solve the pieces of equipment.

On repeated runs they showed visible excitement, such as wagging their tails vigorously, at being led to the entrance to solve the problems again.

The control dogs, on the other hand, were more reluctant to go in and pick up their treat without having to solve any of the ‘puzzles’.

This, according to the researchers, shows that dogs enjoy problem-solving just like humans do.

Good doggy.

Stuff reports:

Google’s New Zealand subsidiary reported an annual loss of just over $60,000 and paid just $227,000 in tax in 2013, its latest accounts have revealed.

New Zealand businesses are believed to spend hundreds of millions of dollars annually on Google’s advertising services and software.

Yep, but they buy those from Google, not Google NZ. Google NZ did not invent the search engine we all use.

But Google is one of a number of technology multinationals that book most of their revenues in Ireland, enabling it to take advantage of legal tax rorts that are currently the focus of an attempted-clampdown by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The subsidiary turned over $10.1 million in 2013, according to accounts published by the Companies Office on Friday.

Google globally actually paid $2.3 billion in tax last year, which was an effective tax rate of 16%. Companies will incorporate in countries with lower corporate tax rates – but they still pay tax there.

I blogged yesterday on Labour’s list, showing who comes in at what party vote percentage. Looking at that table, it shows why Labour needs to significantly lift their party vote.

I’ve tweaked the table to use the iPredict seat predictions, as assumptions. This means:

• If Labour got only 23%, their only List MP would be Deputy Leader David Parker
• At 23%, only 34% of the caucus would be female
• They need 26% to retain Andrew Little
• They need 28% to get Kelvin Davis in. If they are polling below that, then Labour can’t sacrifice him to help Kim DotCom’s party get into Parliament
• They need 29% to get any Asian MPs
• They need 30% to get even a single new List MP
• They need 34% to make their gender target of 45% female

They also have challenges in terms of having a caucus that can excite people to vote for it. The highest ranked new candidate is a policy analyst for the Ministry of Women’s Affairs. I’m sure she is a very capable and talented person for her to have been ranked so high, but Chris Trotter would point out that having your highest ranked new candidate being a policy analyst, won’t really appeal to Waitakere Man.

I touched yesterday that out of a projected caucus of 34 (on average of all public polls), they would have eight Maori MPs, five Pasifika MPs and no Asian MPs. Dong Liu will want his donations back 🙂

Also of interest was that five Labour MPs pulled out of list ranking, including Trevor Mallard. Trevor said that he wanted to help Kelvin Davis out, but that is a nonsense statement. Unless Trevor loses Hutt South to Chris Bishop, then whether or not Mallard is on the Labour List will have no impact on whether Kelvin Davis gets in. So either Trevor thinks he may lose to Bishop, or he withdrew from the list for a different reason to what he stated.

The Guardian reports:

The head of one of the world’s leading groups of democratic nations has accused Russia of undermining projects using hydraulic fracturing technology in Europe.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), and former premier of Denmark, told the Chatham House thinktank in London on Thursday that Vladimir Putin’s government was behind attempts to discredit fracking, according to reports.

Rasmussen said: “I have met allies who can report that Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organisations – environmental organisations working against shale gas – to maintain European dependence on imported Russian gas.”

So Putin is allied with the Greens! I love it.

Michael Fox reports at Stuff:

The Capital Connection rail link between Wellington and Palmerston North continues to make significant losses, despite concerted efforts to make it commercially viable, and halfway through a two-year trial the link’s future looks shaky.

Labour has promised to save the financially-stretched passenger service by pumping in millions in subsidies if it is elected in September.

But Transport Minister Gerry Brownlee has dismissed the proposal, saying efforts to save the service are failing and if passengers want it to survive they need to use it.

Brownlee agreed to a 2013 proposal from councils, including Greater Wellington and Kapiti District, to maintain the service for an extra two years in a bid to see if it could be saved, after KiwiRail revealed the operation was making a loss.

But in spite of fare hikes and efforts to boost patronage, the line will make a loss of more than $600,000 this year, while the number of passengers has also declined.

Only 250 people a day use it. But Labour wants to spend taxpayers money on subdising it. Why?

Steven Joyce and Chris Finlayson have announced:

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce and Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Christopher Finlayson today announced the formation of the Screen Advisory Board.

The Screen Advisory Board, announced by the Government in December 2013, will help the New Zealand screen sector create the skills and connections to be able to generate their own intellectual property, compete internationally and attract overseas finance.

The six-member Board will also assist the New Zealand Film Commission, Film New Zealand, and the New Zealand screen sector to market and promote the New Zealand screen industry overseas.

Sounds good. So who got appointed:

• James Cameron is an Academy Award-winning Canadian film director, producer, screenwriter and editor who has directed the two biggest box office films of all timeTitanic and Avatar.
• Jon Landau is an American film producer. He is best known for producing Titanic, a film which won him an Academy Award, and most recently, Avatar.
• Sir Peter Jackson is an Academy Award-winning New Zealand film director, producer and screenwriter.  He is best known as the director, producer and screenwriter of The Lord of the Rings trilogy (2001–2003) and its prequel The Hobbit trilogy (2012–2014).
• Fran Walsh is an Academy Award-winning New Zealand screenwriter, film producer and lyricist.  She is best known for her work as producer and screenwriter on The Lord of the Rings trilogy and The Hobbit trilogy.
• Andrew Adamson is a New Zealand film director, producer and screenwriter based mainly in Los Angeles. His animation films, Shrek and Shrek 2, received an Academy Award nomination. He was director, executive producer, and scriptwriter for C. S. Lewis’The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.
• Jane Campion is an Academy Award-winning New Zealand screenwriter, producer, and director. She is the second of four women ever nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director and is also the first female filmmaker in history to receive the Palme d’Or, which she received in 1993 for directing The Piano, for which she also won the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.

That’s almost ridiculously high powered. Great to have those six giving up their time for free, to help market and promote the NZ screen industry overseas.

Labour has released its 2014 Party List. The analysis above is my own.

The key assumption is that Labour holds it current electorate seats and also wins the four marginal seats where the incumbent MP from another party is standing down. I’m  not predicting that will happen, just saying that is a reasonable assumption for the list.

So this shows at what level of party vote, each candidate will get elected. At the 23% in the Fairfax poll only David Parker and Jacinda Ardern would make it in.

On the 27.7% Labour currently has on the average of all public polls they would get just seven List MPs, with Kelvin Davis just making it in. Note there have been no polls since the Cunliffe letter and alleged secret donations to Labour were revealed.  On the current average of the polls Labour would lose Raymond Huo and Carol Beaumont.  On the Fairfax 23% they would also lose Sue Moroney, Andrew Little, Maryan Street, Moana Mackey and Kelvin Davis.

Only if Labour get 30% of the vote, will they not be in breach of their rule to have at least 45% of the caucus female. Next time when the quota is 50%, this means male list candidates will be even worse off.

On the average of current polls Labour will be only 41% female, which is less than they are at the moment with no rule!

Very little new talent in a winnable place.  The top placed new candidate is Priyanca Radhakrishnan who would come in at 29%. She is a policy analyst with the Ministry of Women’s Affairs.

So what would Labour’s caucus look like on 27.7% (current public poll average). Their demographics would be:

• 41% female, 59% male
• 62% European, 24% Maori, 15% Pacific, 0% Asian
• 24% in their 30s, 38% in 40s, 32% in 50s, 6% in 60s
• 32% from Auckland, 12% Christchurch, 21% provincial, 15% rural, 21% Wellington
• 76% North Island, 24% South Island
• 88% straight, 9% lesbian, 3% gay
• 9% entered in 1980s, 15% in 1990s, 12% in 2002 to 2005, 38% in 2008 to 2010, 15% in 2011 to 2013 and only 6% in 2014

The ethnicity is interesting. On current polls their caucus would be massively over-represented with Maori and Pasifika MPs, and under-represented with Europeans and there would be no Asian MPs at all.

Also by location, they will have twice as many Wellingtonians, as our share of the population.

Also one quarter of the caucus will have entered Parliament in the 1980s or 1990s.

Stats NZ has released the latest monthly migration data and as one can see the net loss to Australia is still shrinking. Labour seem to think this is a bad thing, incidentially! Arrivals from Australia are at a record high, and departures are close to a 10 year low. Will the two lines cross in the next year?

Stats NZ has released the annual data on abortions. Some key facts:

• 14,073 abortions – the lowest since 1995
• The abortion rate per 1,000 population is 3.1 – also the lowest since 1988.
• The number of abortions in 2000 was 16,103, in 2008 was 17,940 and in 2013 was 14,073
• Sadly 48 under 15s had an abortion, but this is down from a peak of 105 in 2006
• Teenage abortions down dramatically – from 4,277 in 2007 to 2,144 in 2013 – almost a 50% drop
• 56% of abortions are in the first 9 weeks. 6% are after week 13.
• Our general abortion rate (per 1,000 woman of child bearing age) is 16.1 which is lower than Sweden at 20.7 and England 16.4, but higher than Germany 7.4 and Netherland 8.5

This graph from ANZ Bank shows the participation rate in the labour force for women in NZ and te US. We’ve gone from 4% lower to almost 8% higher.

Hawke’s Bay Today reports:

Tukituki Labour candidate Anna Lorck is rejecting a claim by her opponent, Craig Foss, that she was once a National supporter, despite a photograph of her with Prime Minister John Key tweeted in 2011.

Ms Lorck said yesterday that the tweet was posted from her personal Twitter account.

It included a photo of her and her daughter standing with Mr Key, but didn’t indicate she was once a National supporter.

The tweet said: “Big day for Augusta she like all the Frimley School choir just love our PM he seriously was like a rock star!” …

Asked if she was ever a National supporter, Ms Lorck said: “I’ve never been a member of the National Party.” However, the former PR consultant said she spent an hour on the phones encouraging people to vote on election day in 2011 after a member of Mr Foss’ campaign team asked her to.

She said that was not as a National Party supporter because party campaigning was not allowed on election day.

Umm, you’re volunteering for the National Party – that is supporting them. Sure you can’t advocate how people vote, but the people you are ringing are those identified as National supporters.

Ms Lorck drew criticism from the National Party, including Mr Key, earlier this year for another tweet, also posted in 2011, which called David Cunliffe, now her party’s leader, a “bully”.

So in total, Ms Lorck:

1. Volunteered for National in 2011
2. Tweeted favourably about John Key
3. Called David Cunliffe a bully

I guess Labour didn’t have anyone else wanting to be the candidate in Tukituki!

Stuff reports:

Conservative Party leader Colin Craig has announced he would contest the September 20 election in the East Coast Bays electorate, a National stronghold held by Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully for the past 20 years.

Craig conceded at yesterday’s campaign launch, that he would lose if National did not step aside.

But he’s not prepared to accept a deal half-cooked, saying he would be grateful if National stepped aside completely, but was opposed to a situation where McCully ran but only for the party vote.

I think that makes it easy for National.

It’s one thing to stand a candidate, but to say you are comfortable with voters supporting a potential coalition partner, as that leaves the decision in the hand of the local voters.

It is quite another thing to not stand a candidate, and effectively force the decision on the electorate. It is also very unpopular with the local members.

If Colin Craig is saying he doesn’t want an “endorsement”, but a full withdrawal, then National can more easily say, “No”.

The Taxpayers Union has released a report by Jono Brown titled 101 ways to save money in local government.

There are forwards by Hutt City Mayor Ray Wallace and Invercargill Mayor Tim Shabolt. Shadbolt says:

Having been a mayor for 28 years and finally achieving a rate increase of less than 1%, I’ve learnt to face many challenges and this publication is certainly challenging. Some of the ideas are obviously worthy of discussion and others are clearly designed to provoke discussion. Local government representatives can often hide under the cloak of “public service” which generates barricades of knighthoods, QSMs and QSOs.

Occasionally a rogue mayor such as Michael Laws or Wayne Brown would poke their heads above the parapet and lob a grenade or two about the hopelessness of local government but both were eventually destroyed by self-inflicted wounds.

In my view we should never flinch from criticism. At least our critics are interested enough to wrestle with local bodies. Our real opponents are those who don’t give a damn, don’t vote, don’t connect, don’t criticise, don’t communicate and don’t under any circumstances get involved.

Hopefully this publication will anger, inspire or depress but it won’t make us feel apathetic

Some of the 101 ways include:

• Don’t fund or join chambers of commerce
• Publish all accounts payable transactions
• Save on water costs by proactively detecting leaks in the water network
• Require end of year reports from groups which councils fund
• Abolish youth councils and standing consultative committees
• Incentives for recycling
• Don’t fund “sock puppets” and “fake charities”
• Get rid of professional sports subsidies disguised as ‘economic development’
• Don’t implement the living wage
• Don’t copy central government activities
• Use “hot desking”
• Encourage mobile working
• Use energy saving light bulbs, or smart lighting technologies.
• Stop producing glossy brochures
• Cut transaction costs by offering a discount to those who pay by direct debit
• Send rate demands by email
• Use cheaper surfacing for footpaths that are unlikely to be used muchKeep a tight grip on spending by council controlled organisations by having independent directors from the commercial sector
• Pay managers based on the performance of their departments
• Give all staff the option of performance-based pay
• Publish the job titles of all members of staf
• Stick to doing things councils are good at

Not all 101 ideas will apply to all Councils, but there’s no Council that doesn’t have a degree of inefficiency and rather than keep increasing rates for ratepayers, the Taxpayers Union will continue to fight for more efficient government, so rates and taxes can decrease.