Well done Tonga – a great performance to beat France 19-14. Sadly France still go through to the quarter-finals as Tonga had lost to Canada earlier.

The Auckland Council has been removing signs that do not comply with their bylaws. It seems Jacinda not only put her signs up too early, but they were twice as large as the maximum size allowed, so the Council has started to remove them.

This is the sign that was up at Western Park on Ponsonby Road. This is arguably the most high profile public site in Auckland Central.

And this is what is there now, a blank space.

Why does Labour keep having such a problem obeying laws and bylaws? They are not that complicated, especially a maximum size restriction.

Labour doesn’t seem to learn. I’m now awaiting their attack on Richie McCaw. The Herald reports:

Rugby-netball double international Louisa Wall is sticking up for fellow Labour MP Darien Fenton over her attack on the public “bromance” between the Mad Butcher Sir Peter Leitch and Prime Minister John Key. …

But Ms Wall, who is back in Parliament for a second stint as a list MP, said the comments were misinterpreted, and she shared the disappointment at Sir Peter’s support for Mr Key – despite admiring his work.

 “We would have assumed Sir Peter was a working-class champion,” Ms Wall said.

Ms Wall, who is contesting the safe Labour seat of Manurewa, said “personal is political”, and Sir Peter could not endorse Mr Key without endorsing his policies.

For Ms Fenton, though, his broadcast utterances were political treason. That any member of the country’s working class could speak well of a “Tory” leader is anathema. Unthinkable. Unforgivable.

The Mad Butcher was shocked by her withering personal rejection and the attempt to denounce him for saying what he thinks. His former butchery business was also stunned by an inference some had taken that a Labour MP was calling for a boycott of the Mad Butcher stores, many of them in rock-solid Labour seats.

The Fenton comments would have been politically dumb and personally reprehensible at any time, given Sir Peter’s record for serving the communities the MP purports to represent.

But her timing, amid Sir Peter’s well-publicised but tentative recovery from cancer and the joy of all league fans at the Warriors’ late season success, was particularly damaging.

The Herald reports:

A poll of Maori voters indicates Mana Party leader Hone Harawira (below) could face a challenge in his Te Tai Tokerau electorate seat.

The full results of the nationwide TVNZ Marae Investigates DigiPoll survey of 1000 voters will be released this morning.

In results released to the Weekend Herald of 93 Te Tai Tokerau voters polled, 30 per cent said they would vote for Labour candidate Kelvin Davis, compared with 28.6 per cent for Mr Harawira.

About 22 per cent said they would vote for Maori Party candidate Waihoroi Shortland.

The first thing to note is 93 voters is very small for a poll. I don’t like samples under 300. At 93 the margin of error is 10.4%, so a gap of 1.4% between the candidates is not statistically significant. In fact it is only 57% probable that Davis is ahead.

Also worth noting that a poll before the by-election showed Hone leading by just 1% and in fact he won by around 8% or so. That poll was from a different company, but is another reason to be cautious of reading too much into this poll.

I’m puzzled. Go read this story at the NZ Herald, and then can someone explain to me what exactly the SFO is meant to have done wrong.

The Dom Post reports:

It is time for Wellington to party – and now it can rock all the way through to the finals.

The waterfront festivities have been extended, with Wellington City Council making an about-turn last night on its decision to shut the fanzone straight after the quarterfinals and put an end to Rugby World Cup celebrations.

Mayor Celia Wade-Brown said the fanzone would now show all four big matches after the quarterfinals, including the two semifinals on October 15 and 16, the bronze final on October 21 and the final on October 23

Excellent, one back-down I thoroughly approve of.

With the world economy in a dangerous phase according to the IMF and New Zealand hit by a double downgrade just weeks before an election, Finance Minister Bill English is live with Guyon Espiner on whether the government is doing enough to protect our economy.

Then, two of New Zealand’s most respected minds, Sir Paul Callaghan and Gareth Morgan on what the government should do to weather the storm and offering advice to viewers on what we can do.

Finally, two political giants bid farewell to parliament. Sir Roger Douglas and Jim Anderton – the debate between them represents the political faultline of a generation. They talk to Paul Holmes in one last political debate.

On the panel, Claire Robinson and former party presidents Mike Williams and Michelle Boag.

Q+A, 9-10am Sundays on TV ONE. Repeats at 9.10pm Sundays, 9:05am and 1:05pm Mondays on TVNZ 7

Stuff reports:

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s has cut New Zealand’s rating from AA plus to AA, after a similar downgrade by rival agency Fitch this morning.

S&P has had New Zealand on negative outlook since late last year.

It said it downgraded the rating because of the likelihood that New Zealand’s external debt would get worse when the government is having to spend more as a result of the Canterbury quake.

This is a blow. It means all businesses and of course the Government will have to pay a bit more to borrow money. This is the price we pay for having kept interest free student loans – everyone else pays more interest.

This makes it even more imperative that the NZ Govt gets back into surplus as fast as possible. I hope both major parties do not use the election period to make spending promises we can’t afford, or in Labour’s case tax cuts for all we can’t afford.

My column at the NZ Herald is titled Will cannabis propel Goff to power? An extract:

Even if Labour gets a worse result than they did in 2008, and even if National gets a better result than they did in 2008, the country may end up with Prime Minister Phil Goff. …

The interesting thing with this scenario is that National/ACT would have secured more votes than the Goff Government. National/ACT could get 49% and Labour/Green/NZ First/Maori/Mana 48% in total. But the over-hang for the Maori seats would deliver power to the parties that got fewer votes. Any protests would be futile, as the MMP referendum would have just concluded, probably confirming MMP.

The column focuses on the dangers for National if it has no coalition partners beyond one MP parties.

Whale has discovered Labour’s secret campaign strategy, devised by Trevor, Clare and Darien.

Aaarrgh. This is the stupidest decision ever.

The Herald reports:

The Wellington City Council has been slammed for not applying for resource consent for the city’s Fan Zone past the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals.

While New Zealanders around the rest of the country will be able to enjoy the final and semi-finals at free public fan zones, Wellingtonians will either have to watch the games at home or at a pub.

The fan zone, situated next to the new Wharewaka on Odlins Plaza, fits 3,000 fans and was granted resource consent only up to October 12.

Mayor Celia Wade-Brown told Newstalk ZB it has always been the plan to close the waterfront fan zone on October 9.

She said it is part of a country-wide approach, with many overseas supporters likely to follow their teams to Auckland for the final stages of the tournament.

Oh for fuck’s sake, this is such a stupid decision. What about all the Wellingtonians? We’ve been loving the fan zone. I’ve been raving about it to everyone.

Shit, I was planning to watch the final there. Nothing better than celebrating the All Blacks winning the Rugby World Cup than with 3,000 of your mates. And we would all be mates that night.

Please, please City Councillors change this decision. This is probably the last ever Rugby World Cup in NZ. Any Councillor who votes against keeping the fan zone going should be targeted for eviction in 2013!

UPDATE: If the Council won’t budget, can Murray McCully seize control of the Wellington Waterfront also please. Guarantee you a huge spike upwards in the party vote for National in Wellington!

At Red Alert Darien Fenton blogs an apology to Sir Peter Leitch:

Peter’s a top bloke and he’s done a lot for Kiwi communities, and even though we might disagree on politics these days, I’ve still got a lot of respect for him.

So, Peter, if you are reading this, sorry about the comments.

Leitch has raised over a million dollars for charities.

We will be charitable and assume Darien’s apology was spontaneous and the timing at 10.43 pm was coincidence, not after she got phoned by the NZ Herald in relation to the story they were running today:

Sir Peter said from Melbourne yesterday that he did not know what to say when he heard what Ms Fenton had said about him.

“I honestly don’t know what to say, to be fair – and it’s not often that I’m lost for words. I don’t know what I’ve done wrong.

“I’m very disappointed and it’s just taken the wind out of my sails. I’m absolutely gutted by her comments.”

Sir Peter said he supported Helen Clark when Labour was in power and took her to Warriors matches.

“The National Party never complained that I supported Helen Clark,” he said.

“I’ve done nothing with John Key that I didn’t do with Helen Clark – I’ve been a little bit more vocal.”

Poor Sir Peter. He doesn’t realise that this makes him a class traitor. They don’t see it as supporting the PMs you like, they see it as betrayal.

In response to Ms Fenton’s claims that he was “sucking up to John Key big time”, he said: “I thought freedom of speech was one of the things people went to Gallipoli for. But obviously in her opinion, it’s not.”

Ouch. Of course that is not to say that free speech doesn’t have consequences, but advocating not to shop there because someone praised John Key is rather over the top. Phil Goff got it better:

Labour leader Phil Goff said today he did not agree with Ms Fenton’s comments about Sir Peter.

“I’m a real Warriors fan. I’ve been going to their matches for years and have caught up with the Mad Butcher many times. He is a great guy and a great ambassador for rugby league. He is absolutely entitled to express whatever opinion he likes. Go the Warriors against Manly.”

Much smarter.

UPDATE: Sir Peter reveals to Whale Oil how Fenton’s attack made him break down and cry, and how he spent all day cooking at David Lange’s funeral:

“I have been hurt immensely by her, last night I broke down and cried, I just feel stabbed in the back”. Sir Peter then went on to outline all the things he has been doing recently for Christchurch and the huge effort and toll that has taken on him. ” For her to attack me when I am trying my best for this country, well mate, I’m gutted.”

“The worst part in all this is in trying to attack me she has instead attacked 37 hard working, working class franchisees, she is taking the bread from their mouths” he said. “I sold the business 3 and half years ago and she didn’t even get that right”

“I though Labour was for the working class, after this I just don’t know”.

“But the thing that hurts the most is that I feel stabbed in the back. I gave free product and spent all day cooking at David Lange’s funeral, another working class hero, and this is what I get?”

And Whale concludes:

When I asked him some political questions he refused to answer them, he said “Mate, I don’t want to get political, I’ve never been political, I just want what is best for this great little country.”

Just as well for Labour there isn’t an election in 57 days or anything like that. Oh shit …..

Sorry for lags here, it’s been a grim week.

Hope this shot puts people in a good mood for the end-of-week.

Click for larger, higher res image

Answers tomorrow at 7 am

MARAE INVESTIGATES
RELEASE ‘MARAE DIGIPOLL’

10-11am this Sunday, 2^nd October on TV

What impact has the arrival of the Mana Party had on Maori voters?

That’s one of the questions raised in a new Digipoll to be released on TV ONE’s Marae Investigates this Sunday.

With the General Election eight weeks away, the results provide a fascinating insight into how support for the Maori and Labour parties has been affected by the Mana Party.

Marae Investigates also has an exclusive interview with the whanau of Maori Wallaby, Quade Cooper.
Quade’s Brisbane based mum, Ruhia Jones gives a candid view of her son’s rise to fame and her unconditional support for him in the face of Kiwi animosity.

Key Points:

* National hits 50% and Greens above 10%
* Brash now most vulnerable party leader
* Video Camera Surveillance (Temporary Measures) Bill to be passed
* Inflation and growth figures deteriorate
* Unemployment and OCR figures remain steady
* Fonterra payout predictions improve

Commentary:

National and the Greens are at record-breaking highs, while Labour and Act are at record-breaking lows, according to this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict. National’s forecast party vote has reached 50.0%, and the Greens’ 10.3%, meaning 63 and 13 MPs respectively, while Labour have dropped to 28.1% and Act 2.0%, meaning just 36 and 3 MPs respectively. With the exception of Phil Goff’s Mt Roskill electorate, Labour is now expected to reduce its majorities in all of the electorates iPredict measures In economics, inflation and growth figures worsen, while unemployment and the OCR remain unchanged, the Fonterra Payout for 2011/12 has improved slightly.

Continue reading »

I’ve blogged at Stuff on the passing of the VSM Bill/Act. Some interesting feedback and discussion from readers there on their experiences.

Looking back I probably hated Keith Locke before I met him. He stood for everything I detested.  Famously he had welcomed the USSR “liberation” of Afghanistan. He was basically an avowed communist who openly talked about much better the world would be without the United States.

I still disagree with Keith on almost every issue. His opposition to Police tasers is woefully misguided, and I doubt we would agree on a single economic or foreign policy issue.

However Keith is a great example of someone where you can hate their views, but like the person. Some people can’t do that (and I used to find it harder) but I think it is a healthy thing to be able to do.

Keith is one of the nicest MPs that has been in Parliament. I can’t recall a time where he had made a personal attack on someone. His views, while extreme, are sincere. He is a product of his parents and upbringing.

My views on Keith are not unique to me. Many National MPs have said how much they like him on a personal level, and Keith has attended a fair few National parties and functions.

There are a couple of issues where I have agreed with Keith, such as republicanism, and have enjoyed working with him on those issues.

Keith used to get tormented in the House, especially by Winston Peters and Michael Cullen. Cullen once almost reduced him to tears. While I think it is quite legitimate to use MP’s previous utterances against them, the nature of some of the taunting was over the top.

Keith gave a witty valedictory yesterday, commenting how his SIS file will be very useful to him in writing the history book he is working on. I hope he enjoys his post-parliamentary career.

This week with England playing Scotland at Eden Park on Saturday — a Scottish flavour to our Sunday Edition Panel!

But first — with the Warriors playing the NRL Grand Final we go to their South Auckland heartland to find out what really makes this much multi-ethnic impoverished part of NZ tick. Narelle Suisted talks about the reality of life in South Auckland and their hopes and dreams for the future with Year 13 from Otahuhu College. This is a fascinating insight into a part of Auckland the rest of NZ knows little about.
We follow that up with an interview with Housing Minister Phil Heatley — over a third of South Aucklanders live in Housing New Zealand houses.

And finally we look back at the colourful career of retiring Green MP Sue Kedgley — from beauty queen to environmental activist. Sean Plunket will have an extended interview with Sue.
And the panel — R G R (“Jock”) Anderson (NBR); David Ferguson (The Scotsman).

UPCOMING SATURDAY 01/10/11 1030 – SUNDAY EDITION 2/10/11 0830 – TV3

Rob Salmond blogs at Pundit:

The race to become the next government is effectively over, but there is intrigue in some of the secondary numbers

That’s a huge (but realistic) admission from someone who used to work for Helen Clark.

The headlines tend to concentrate on its head-to-head lead over Labour, which has climbed up to almost 24% in our poll of polls. But even more important is the lead that National and ACT together hold over the grouping of Labour and the Greens. That gap has grown steadily over the last year, from a low of around 10% in November 2010 up to its current level of over 17%. This translates into a seat advantage of around 21 seats, making a right-leaning government massively more likely than a left-leaning government

Rob notes:

As remarkable as that kind of a lead is, it is nothing especially unusual. This has been the broad political situation in New Zealand since early 2009.

There has been a perhaps remarkable lack of volatility in the polls the last three years.

First, some commentators have been suggesting that ACT’s gambit when it took on Don Brash as its leader has already proven a failure, and there has been no improvement for ACT in the polls. That claim is false.

In April, we estimated ACT’s support at around 0.8%, whereas for the last two months we have estimated it hovering between 1.9% and 2.2%. The ACT vote has more than doubled since Don Brash became leader, and the rising trend has been fairly consistent. Of course, this is a far cry from what Dr Brash promised – I recall the number 15% crossing his lips in yet another ill-advised outburst – but it is not nothing.

That is correct, and in four of the five MMP elections ACT has got around 2% more actual vote than the polls were showing this far out.

Our Poll of Polls currently does not include the Fairfax polls, because they are new kids on the block. Including them, however, would make little difference to our predictions – less than 1% for each of the three largest parties, and substantially less than that for all the smaller parties.

I’ve included the Fairfax polls in the Curia average (there are slight difference in methodologies of weighting them) and I have National at 55.1% in the weighted average against 53.5% in the Pundit average. Also Labour at 27.5% vs 30.0% for Pundit. Curia has Greens at 9.4% vs 8.0% for Pundit.

The company that does Fairfax polls are Research International and they are not new. They used to be TNS which were TV3’s pollsters in 2008 – and they got closest to the actual election results.