Riots and the youth minimum wage
In my NZ Herald column I look at the causes of the English riots and make the case for lowering the youth minimum wage to reduce teenage unemployment in NZ from 27%.
In my NZ Herald column I look at the causes of the English riots and make the case for lowering the youth minimum wage to reduce teenage unemployment in NZ from 27%.
Idiot/Savant at No Right Turn blogs:
Parliament unanimously passed the Electoral (Administration) Amendment Bill (No 2) today, making some minor but necessary changes to our electoral administration. During the debate, Labour MP Chris Hipkins argued that we should be looking at introducing electronic voting. On Twitter, he asks for people’s thoughts on the issue.
I have just one: is he fucking mad?
The evidence from overseas is overwhelming: electronic voting can’t be trusted. The machines are black boxes. The software is proprietary. They may be run by people with partisan interests. And they’re hackable (not just in theory – in practice). There’s no way for the count to be audited, and no way to tell if the votes entered by voters are actually being recorded, or just sent to the bit bucket.
Electronic voting means putting elections, a vital part of our democratic infrastructure, in the hands of unaccountable, private entities, with poor security and no transparency. We’ll basically be relying on their goodwill that they won’t fix elections. Oh, and blind faith that they won’t leave a yawning security flaw allowing someone else to. As someone who takes democracy seriously, I don’t think that’s a very good idea.
I/S is thinking that the way the US did electronic voting is the only way. I have been pushing for some time that we should trial e-voting for one or more local body elections. Have the option to vote over the Internet, as well as a postal ballot. So no e-voting use of stand-alone voting machines – just use the Internet.
We do banking and tax over the Internet securely, and I am sure can do voting also. We even have a secure government login service which you can use to register companies etc.
And e-voting can be audit-able. Each person who votes can get an e-mail confirmation of how they voted. You could even audit a random sample of voters to ensure their record of voting matches the central record.
And one could have the code for the e-voting software released publicly, so that experts can verify that it is does what it is meant to do.
So I’m with Chris Hipkins. The time has come to at least be trialling e-voting. The logical opportunity is the 2013 local body elections.
UPDATE: The Government has responded to the Justice and Electoral Select Committee review of the 2010 local body elections. They have said:
Trans-Tasman reports:
In a press statement issued August 3, Labour’s finance spokesman David Cunliffe stated categorically “KiwiSaver funds will not incur capital gains tax on their share investments under Labour’s policy proposals. KiwiSaver funds which invest in shares are already taxed as portfolio investments entities (PIEs) at the PIE rate of 28%, or as widely-held superannuation funds taxed at 30%.”
So a categorical statement that CGT will not apply to share investments in KiwiSaver funds.
Revenue spokesman Stuart Nash added “in neither case would the KiwiSaver fund attract additional capital gains tax, as tax is already paid on a trading basis.” This is not correct. One of the big attractions of KiwiSaver funds is they do NOT pay tax on share trading gains.
So they got the current law wrong.
Based on a written response from Cunliffe to the Shareholders’ Association on July 20, in circumstances where currently no tax is payable on capital gains, the 15% CGT would apply under Labour’s proposal. So KiwiSaver funds would suffer CGT on share trading gains, which are currently exempt from CGT, at the rate of 15%.
And they got their own policy wrong. KiwiSaver funds will be subject to CGT on currently exempt share trading gains.
And where Labour says PIEs are taxed at 28%, the maximum rate, they are actually taxed at the rate of the investor, which could be lower than 28%, ie at 10.5%, or 17.5%.
So got that wrong also.
Widely-held superannuation funds are taxed at 28%, not the 30% rate, as Cunliffe contended.
This is surely a serious blow to Labour’s credibility, if Trans-Tasman are correct.
iPredict says:
Key Points:
* Growth and unemployment expectations worsen after recent improvements
* OCR increase now not expected until December
* National strengthens; no longer needs Act
* Notable movements in key electorate seats, including New Plymouth, Waitakere and Tamaki-Makaurau
* NZ First falls below MMP’s 5% threshold
Commentary:
Growth expectations have fallen back again, this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, suggests. Consequently, the first increase to the OCR is now not forecast until December, with further increases now expected to be less frequent than previously indicated. There is also a reduced likelihood that mortgage rates will pass 6.00% before the end of the year. In politics, National’s position has strengthened, and John Key is expected to be able to govern with his choice of the Act Party, the Maori Party or UnitedFuture, or a combination of all three. There has been significant movement in electorates, with Pita Sharples’ lead in Tamaki-Makaurau reduced by 14%, Jonathan Young’s hold on the New Plymouth electorate reduced by 10%, and Paula Bennett’s Waitakere electorate chances increasing by 18%. New Zealand First has again fallen below MMP’s 5% threshold.
Economic Context
Expectations for GDP growth have diminished this week. Growth is expected to be 0.7% for the June quarter (steady), 0.6% for the September quarter (down from 0.9% last week), 0.5% for the December quarter (down from 0.8% last week) and 0.6% for the March 2012 quarter (steady).
Figures released last week show that the unemployment rate for the June quarter was 6.5%, largely in line with iPredict’s indication last week of 6.6%. Forecast unemployment has deteriorated slightly for future quarters, with unemployment expected to be 6.4% for the September 2011 quarter (steady), 6.2% in the December 2011 quarter (up from 6.1% last week) and 6.2% in the March 2012 quarter (up from 6.1% last week).
Inflation expectations have remained largely unchanged. Annual inflation is expected to be 5.0% in the September 2011 quarter (down from 5.1% last week), 2.9% in the December 2011 quarter (steady) and 2.6% in the March 2012 quarter (steady).
The market continues to indicate strongly that petrol prices will be capped at a maximum price of $2.30 this year. The probability that unleaded petrol will exceed $2.30 per litre in 2011 is 19% (down from 22% last week), the probability it will exceed $2.40 per litre is 8% (down from 11% last week), and the probability it will go above $2.50 per litre is 8% (down from 10% last week).
The market now expects Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard to hold off an increase in the OCR until December, when it will rise to 2.75%, and then again in March 2012 to 3.00%, and in April to 3.25%.
The expected 90-day bank bill rate for 1 September 2011 is 2.91% (down from 3.05% last week) and for 1 December 2011 is 3.07% (down from 3.20% last week).
There is now a 68% probability that average floating-rate mortgages will reach 6.00% by the end of the year, down from a 93% probability last week, but just an 11% probability that they will reach 6.50% in 2011, down from 27% last week.
The market is indicating a Current Account deficit of 4.82% of GDP for the year to June 2011 (steady), 4.69% of GDP for the year to September 2011 (down from 4.71% last week), and 4.28% of GDP for the year to December 2011 (down from 4.30% last week).
Parties & Personnel
All current leaders of parliamentary parties have at least a 91% probability of remaining in their positions until the election. The most vulnerable is Labour Party leader Phil Goff, but with just a 9% probability of being replaced prior to the election (steady from last week).
Key Electorate Contests
Act has remained steady in Epsom this week with an 89% probability that the seat will be won by a candidate other than a National candidate or incumbent Act MP Rodney Hide.
In Ohariu, United Future’s Peter Dunne has also remained steady with a 73% probability of being re-elected.
New Zealand First is once again below MMP’s 5.0% threshold at 4.9% (down from 5.1% last week), with party leader Winston Peters having only a 22% probability of returning to Parliament (steady).
Expectations that Mana Party leader Hone Harawira will retain the Te Tai Tokerau seat in the General Election have improved slightly at 83% (up from 82% last week).
Expectations that Maori Party Co-Leader Pita Sharples is expected to retain Tamaki-Makaurau have reduced markedly from 66% last week, to 52% this week. Co-Leader Tariana Turia is still expected to retain Te Tai Hauauru (79%, steady), and Te Ururoa Flavell is expected to retain Waiariki (73%, steady).
For the Labour Party, Nanaia Mahuta is expected to retain Hauraki-Waikato (78%, up from 76% last week) and Labour’s position in Ikaroa-Rawhiti (currently Parekura Horomira’s seat) has improved (76%, up from 72% last week)
Te Tai Tonga remains forecast to change hands, with a 76% probability it will be won by Labour’s Rino Tirikatene from the Maori Party’s Rahui Katene (up from 74% last week).
In marginal electorates other than those mentioned above, the probability National’s Jonathan Young will retain New Plymouth has fallen to 68% from 78% last week. There is an 81% probability that National’s Nikki Kaye will retain Auckland Central (up from 76% last week). The likelihood that National’s Paula Bennett will retain her Waitakere seat has improved markedly to 73% (up from 55% last week) and Labour’s Damien O’Connor is expected to win back West Coast-Tasman for Labour, but has lost some ground (52%, down from 58% last week).
With no changes to forecast winners in electorate seats over the last week, National continues to be expected to win 40 electorate seats, Labour 24, the Maori Party 3, and Act, United Future and the Mana Party 1 each.
Party Vote, Election Result and Alternative Scenarios
Forecast party vote shares are now: National 46.0% (up from 45.5% last week), Labour 30.6% (down from 31.9% last week), the Greens 7.0% (down from 7.3% last week), Act 5.5% (up from 5.0% last week), New Zealand First 4.9% (down from 5.1% last week), UnitedFuture 2.0% (up from 1.8% last week), the Maori Party 1.8% (steady), the Mana Party 1.7% (up from 1.4% last week), the Conservative Party 0.7% (down from 1.1% last week), the New Citizen Party 0.4% (steady), and the proposed Reform New Zealand Party 0% (steady).
Based on this data, and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 58 MPs, Labour 39 MPs, the Greens 9 MPs, Act 7 MPs, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture 3 MPs each, and the Mana Party 2 MPs. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply. John Key’s National Party could govern with the support of the Act Party, the Maori Party, or UnitedFuture.
Given New Zealand First’s proximity to MMP’s 5% threshold, iPredict has also analysed what might happen should New Zealand First win 5.0% of the vote. Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows: National 56 MPs, Labour 37 MPs, the Greens 8 MPs, Act 7 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture and the Mana Party 2 MPs each. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply. John Key’s National Party would require the support of either the Act Party or the Maori Party and UnitedFuture.
Overall the market indicates a 93% probability there will be a National Prime Minister after the election (up from 91% last week).
MMP Referendum and Miscellaneous
The probability New Zealanders will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on Election Day is 83%, up from 78% last week.
iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The company is providing full election coverage this year, with contract bundles for the party vote and for every electorate race in the country now available for trading, along with other contract bundles on a wide range of economic, political and social issues. The weekly political snapshot is taken at a random time each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists. This week’s was taken at 9:21 am today.
In my Stuff By the Numbers blog, I look at Mana’s likely candidate selections, and how they may help the right more than the left.
Got sent a spreadsheet comparing costs in the Hawke’s Bay of various fruit and vegetables between outlets and products. It shows that the difference between various retail outlets is far far more than the 15% GST. Some examples – all expressed as costs/kg:
Amazing there is such a huge price variation.
Last week we ran two items which raised big questions —- Andrew Thorburn, CEO of the BNZ and then coverage of the media briefing by the Chinese Embassy. This week we will be taking the points made in those interviews up with Prime Minister John Key. We will also have the profile of Graham Henry we promised for last week. Colin James will be at the National Party conference and the Sunday Edition panel will be John Pagani and Karyn Scherer.
Saturday 13/08/11 1030 — Sunday Edition 14/08/11 0830 — TV3
Dave Guerin at Education Directions blogs:
Labour’s Phil Goff and Clayton Cosgrove have criticised the Government over the plummeting number of building and construction trainees in Canterbury. Unfortunately their claims don’t stand up to basic analysis and were published a few days after the ITO announced that Canterbury construction trainees were shooting up! Labour has been a weak Opposition over tertiary education issues and it would be better for the country if they gave the Government a harder time than in this latest effort.
Dave quotes Cosgrove:
“When National came into office at the end of 2008, there were 1049 building and construction industry trainees in Canterbury,” Clayton Cosgrove said. “Two years later, in December 2010, the number dropped 45 per cent to 578. That’s staggering.
Guerin points out:
I’m grumpy that Labour put out such a ridiculous media release that paid no attention to the fact that the building industry had crashed over the last few years (and employment in general had also declined). They didn’t even bother checking their figures against, say, Statistics NZ. The chart below is drawn from Stats NZ’s report on Value of Building Work Put In Place, March 2011 and it shows how much work has actually been done each quarter on approved building consents (in Sep 1999 prices). As you can see, the figures plunged from December 2007, with a small rally from late 2009 to mid 2010. The December quarter figures for the trend value are $2,413m (07), $2,015 (08), $1,789 (09) and $1,885 (10). Even allowing for the uptick in 2010, there was a 22% decline in the value of work completed from Dec 2007 to Dec 2010. From Dec 2007 to Dec 2009, there was a 26% drop.
In other words if there is less work, there are less apprenticeships etc.
I could publish figure from BCITO’s 2010 annual report (p. 17) that shows that BCITO figures started plummeting from Dec 2007, when Labour was in power.
So the downward trend started under Labour.
it is pretty dopey to put out a claim that the situation is disastrous, when less than a week beforehand BCITO announced that there had been well over 300 trainee sign-ups since January 2011 in Canterbury, higher than anywhere else in the country, with 153 trainees in May and June alone. Labour’s figures had 578 trainees in Canterbury at Dec 2010, so the increase is significant. (I also understand that provider-based trades enrolments are up a lot at CPIT.) It is unbelievable that Labour didn’t bother checking out the BCITO’s website before putting out their release, let alone calling the BCITO or simply reading the news.
Or they did, but ignored the inconvenient facts.
My overall concern isn’t a partisan one. I’d like Labour to be doing a better job as an Opposition because it would make the Government work harder on its policy. But this latest media release by Clayton Cosgrove, with Phil Goff commenting in support, is just shoddy. Tertiary spokesperson David Shearer was lucky to keep out of it.
Readers may not be aware that any evidence of file-sharing involving copyrighted works, can be used under the three strikes law from today.
The law comes into effect on 1 September, but complaint notices can refer to any alleged infringing within the last 21 days, which starts today.
So if you torrent etc any copyrighted works from today onwards, and your IP address is not masked, then it is possible your ISP will be sent a complaint, and you will receive a “first strike” notice.
Until around 10 days after your first strike notice, you can’t receive a second strike, no matter how many complaints are received – so the first strike might cover one instance or 100.
Be aware though if you do make it through to a third strike and the Copyright Tribunal, then costs can be imposed on all the recorded infringing (if proven).
Audrey Young at NZ Herald reports:
A bill capping core Government spending increases to the rate of inflation and population changes was introduced to Parliament yesterday as part of National’s support agreement with Act.
But it is not expected to pass a second reading after consideration by the finance and expenditure select committee.
The Spending Cap (People’s Veto) Bill was introduced by Regulatory Reform Minister and former Act leader Rodney Hide.
It was referred to in the confidence and supply agreement as the Taxpayers’ Rights Bill.
It provides that the only way the cap can be lifted is by majority vote in a referendum.
I like the principle behind the bill – that spending should be capped in real terms, and you need public permission to go higher.
There’s a few countries in Europe that could have benefited from such a law.
Labour have confirmed David Parker for Epsom (as first reported here a fortnight ago). However as far as I know, they have yet to select for the following seats, despite the election being just 15 weeks away:
Does anyone know if those seats have actually been selected, or when they are scheduled to be?
Eight is a play of six monologues, at Circa. Six you ask, not eight? Why? Well because you can vote before your show on which six of the eight monologues you want to see.
On Sunday I got to see Millie, Danny, Bobby, Astrid, Miles and Jude – and hence not Mona and Andre.
The four actors – Chelsea Bognuda, Jonathan Kenyon, Jessica Robinson and Paul Waggott play two characters each. Also several of them appear as props in other scenes.
I enjoyed the show. My favourite monologue was Astrid arrives home early in the morning with torn stockings etc looking like she has had a good night out. She has – too good a night in that she scored – and struggles with whether to tell her boyfriend asleep in the bed what happened.
Also very powerful was Miles – the Merrill Lynch trader who got caught up in the 7/7 bombings in London, and used them as a way to escape his normal life for a couple of years.
The characters are all English, or in one case an American in England. But they are all characters Kiwis can relate to – either from our own experiences, or from good TV dramas.
The actors did a very good job of making their characters real. You could relate to them, and always the sign of a good monologue is that often I was disappointed they finished so quickly (around 13 minutes each).
At times though I did struggle a bit with how they all fitted together. They were individually all very good, but it was only when I read the writer’s note that I saw they were all meant to be about “growing up in a world in which the central value system is based on an ethic of commercial, aesthetic and excess” which leads to a generation who are apathetic and have lost belief in themselves and the world around them.
When I posted recently on the All Blacks test I was at, a reader called me a Steve Tew rugby fan. By that he meant someone who enjoys the game, but is not overly skilled in interpreting what is happening. I thought it a fair critique, and to some degree that applies to me with plays also.
I greatly enjoy going to the theatre and love good humour, or terrifying suspense, or experiencing emotional roller coasters. But I fear all too often I miss some of the “meta data” or hidden messages which expert theatre goers can observe and analyse.
So I guess my reviews are what one might call the “Average Joe” perspective. From that perspective I definitely enjoyed “Eight”, and seeing a talented bunch of actors pull off their monologues. However I didn’t really pick up on the common theme running through them, but that may well be more my failing, than anyone else’s.
The Maori Community Development Act 1962:
31 Prevention of drunkenness
A Maori Warden may at any reasonable time enter any licensed premises in any area where he is authorised to carry out his duties and warn the licensee or any servant of the licensee to abstain from selling or supplying liquor to any Maori who in the opinion of the Warden is in a state of intoxication, or is violent, quarrelsome, or disorderly, or is likely to become so, whether intoxicated or not, and if the licensee or any servant of the licensee thereafter on the same day supplies liquor to that Maori, the licensee and, if the servant had been warned by the Warden, the servant, commits an offence against this Act.
H/T: Dim-Post
This comes from a TV3 story last night:
Wellington bar owners say drunk Maori will be specifically targeted during the World Cup, by a 50-year-old law that has been pulled from the archives by police and the city council.
The law allows Maori wardens to enter bars and remove drunk or violent Maori. …
Bar owners say it is racist.
“I can’t get my head around it and it is a racist law and I think it should be changed, and I can’t understand it’s still in the legislation,” says Wellington bar owner Jeremy Price.
Another bar owner, John Coleman, is just as worked up.
“It’s disgraceful, disrespectful and racist I can’t believe that they’re doing this,” he says.
The wardens were trialled after the South Africa, All Blacks game in Wellington a fortnight ago – and they will be used around the country during the Rugby World Cup.
The police say the Maori wardens have been successful around the country and even though this is a first for Courtenay Place, they do intend to use them on a long term basis.
But they may not get their way, Maori Affairs Minister Pita Sharples says the law is outdated and he will review it.
“I’m sure it will be overhauled in terms of the duties, you are right the duties are old and they are written old,” he says.
Vaimoana Tapaleao at NZ Herald reports:
A man who took a blank DVD from his workplace for his own use has been found to have been justifiably fired from his job.
David Dumolo worked as an information technology technician for the Lakes District Health Board, helping hospital sites in Taupo and Rotorua.
In May last year he was dismissed from his job after he took a blank DVD, without permission, for his personal use.
My first reaction to this is that it was vast over-kill. Hell, I’m pretty sure I’ve taken the odd blank CD home in the distant past, just as I’ve sometimes taken a pen home.
A month before he lost his job, Mr Dumolo had gone into work on Saturday, April 24, to get a blank DVD.
On the day he took the DVD, another employee spotted Mr Dumolo and reported him to their manager.
This changes it somewhat. I would not go into work to grab something for personal use. I’d go to Dick Smith’s and buy it. If it was a “I was heading out the door and realised I need a blank CD and grabbed one from my desk” I think it would be less of an issue.
The Employment Relations Authority found that Mr Dumolo’s dismissal was justified.
His managers’ decision to fire him was fair in that in the seven months he had been working he had been given a formal warning and had been spoken to on several occasions about other incidents.
This I suspect is the major reason he was sacked. There had been other problems and they used the DVD as a catalyst to get him fired.
NZPA report:
Auckland’s Mt Eden prison operator Serco has been accused of bribing inmates with bigger helpings of food and televisions in their cells to encourage them to behave.
The prison officers’ union, the Corrections Association, said that in addition to larger meals, Serco served dessert every night, unheard of in the State prison system, Radio New Zealand reported.
To me this shows the private operator has the flexibility we want a prison operator to have.
UPDATE: I am informed that the “dessert” served up is a piece of fruit. I’m also informed state prisons serve fruit also, so this is a union beatup story.
Hamish Coleman-Ross at Stuff reports:
A controversial child beauty pageant has confirmed it will be held in New Zealand.
Three New Zealand cities are being considered as the location for an American-style beauty contest for dolled-up children next year.
Undeterred by protests against a pageant in Melbourne last month – and a tabloid television turf war that erupted over six-year-old United States star Eden Wood, who later pulled out – organisers Universal Royalty plan to bring the show to New Zealand for the first time next June
Yuck. That is one part of American culture that we can do without importing. It’s a free world, and if some parents are think it is good for their kids to take part, then that’s up to them.
But any who do would remind me of the women interviewed for the Bruno movie. He asks them if their child models would be prepared to model, lose weight, undergo liposuction, operate heavy machinery and finally dress in Nazi uniforms in order to get the part – and the mother nods away agreeing to them all.
The Dom Post reports:
Prime Minister John Key and his diplomatic protection squad entourage were among the first on the scene of an assault in central Wellington early this morning.
Key and his police protection had been out for a run when they were returning to Parliament about 6.30am.
They stumbled on a person lying on the ground in Bowen Street with a group of people gathered around.
“I obviously suggested to my police officers that I thought we should stop and provide assistance.”
This story is just another example of the Murdoch controlled lazy incompetent left-hating media not doing their job.
If they were true journalists they would have discovered that the entire scene was engineered by Crosby Textor to provide a good news story, and show the PM as fit and healthy on his 50th birthday.
Technically I suppose the England riots, as they are also in Birmingham.
Stuff reports:
Some have branded the disturbances as a cry for help from impoverished areas reeling from the government’s harsh austerity cuts to tackle a big budget deficit
A cry for help?
It sounds like it might take the Police days to regain control of the streets. I wonder if they may have to call the Armed Forces in to assist?
Clare Curran blogs at Red Alert:
The trolls who inhabit this site are on notice.
You have been tolerated for long enough. Your tactics are increasingly obvious. Real debate is encouraged on Red Alert, but not trolling.
You will be banned without notice.
Banned for life without notice. Sounds a great way to get rid of dissenting voices. Will they rename Red Alert, Pravda?
I was going to put this post up a few days ago. Instead I ran a poll. As a litmus test. The results are pretty clear. Of the people who comment, most are put off by the tone of many commenters.
The poll was hilarious. There was no option to say that there was already too much censorship of the blog. The only options were to agree with Clare that something must be done or a couple of neutral options, in the best traditions of the Ministry of Truth.
Even then, only 26% of readers said they think the comments are dominated by trolling right-wingers. That means 74% do not. Yet that is taken as an endorsement to ban dissenting opinions – now known as trolling.
I have sympathy when it comes to genuine trolls. But I have a very transparent system for dealing with them.
In the last couple of weeks the intensity of trolling by anonymous commenters on Red Alert has increased.
I’d say that is directly related to the increasing stupidity of the posts. If you don’t want to be drowned in critical comments, then stop Trevor doing his texts from John Key and stop trying to link John Key to the Iraq War through a PR firm. Even your own supporters groan at such puerile stuff.