Regarding where the OCR should be in a year’s time, the Shadow Board’s core view ranged from 4.50 percent to 5.75 percent and centred on an OCR of 5.50 percent – a shift from 5.25 percent in the August NZIER Shadow Board. There was an increased view amongst members that another increase in the OCR may be required, given the stickiness of inflation and high inflation expectations.
So the NZIER Shadow Board consensus is that interest rates are no longer forecast to stabilise and drop, but will increase even further. Floating mortgage rates are already over 8% – will they hit 9%?
Advance voting starts today and I encourage people to get out there and vote early. Don’t risk getting busy on the 14th of October, get it done as soon as convenient.
If you want to change the Government, there are only two parties that are basically guaranteed to gain representation, and will boot Labour from office – that is National and ACT. Any other vote risks Labour carrying on for a third term.
A third term for Labour will be far far worse than either of their first two terms. Their incompetence will be the least of our problems. At best Labour will make up 60% of a left Government caucus. The Greens and Māori Party will beyond doubt be in Cabinet and will push New Zealand towards hard left policies and even greater separatism.
I’m voting this morning, and hope many others do also.
Chris Hipkins said he believes there has been more racism and misogyny in this election than any previous one.
Fronting media at the Chinese Moon Festival in Auckland this afternoon, the Labour leader spoke about apparent heightened tension surrounding the campaign following reports of an allegedly politically motivated attack on the home of 21-year-old Hana Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, Te Pāti Māori’s Hauraki-Waikato candidate and fourth on the party list.
The leader of the party that blamed house prices on people with Chinese sounding surnames should know all about racism.
Aucklanders are facing a financial horror show with sky-high rates and water bills pencilled in for next year.
Mayor Wayne Brown said the numbers are going to be nasty for ratepayers if councillors are not prepared to make cuts to services and sell assets.
Heading into a new 10-year budget next year, the starting point for rates is 13 per cent and a senior council source said water bills could rise by more than 20 per cent.
The Council should see the 10% it still holds of Auckland Airport and the Ports of Auckland.
This morning on Newshub Nation Rebecca Wright hosted National education Spokesperson Erica Stanford and current Minister of Education Jan Tinetti.
As education is my passion and life-work I rarely feel more disappointed when a “leader” in the field resorts to presenting false information or avoiding data/facts. That is exactly what Tinetti did.Growing right up from her NZEI roots.
I know the NZ High School data set better than most because I do the sector wide data process for LEAVERS every year (can send it to you on request). Labour try to say things were in decline before that came to be in office and try to blame National Standards. If teachers having to do a few assessments could see their teaching/learning decline so badly – clearly they were on shaky ground in the first place.
The data clearly shows some fluctuations and then Labour – in the last six years – led by Hipkins and Tinetti driving our system off a cliff. This is especially true for Maori, Pasifika and low decile children – those they claim to stand for – and to the great shame of the Labour Maori caucus.
Tinetti tried to close today’s debate by saying things had turned around. There is ABSOLUTELY NO evidence for that and she is hiding the Term 2 attendance data until November.
– there had been a significant improvement on T1 2022 overall 46.1% to 59.5% but in 2019 it was 72.8% of students attending 90% of the time.
– Maori (44.9%) and Pasifika (47.8%) lag well behind European (62.8%) and Asian (70.6%)
– Tai Tokerau and Hawkes Bay, Tarawhiti are the worst regions historically and both were under 50%.
When the Education and Workforce Select Committee (Labour led) had an investigation into the attendance crises last year only 8 schools (out of 2,600 submitted and the SC chose not to go into schools to find reasons for good or poor attendance). Their final report shows that they have no evidence that school lunches have improved attendance. Their recommendations contained nothing about school quality, teacher quality, aspiration, high quality curriculum – the worth of attending school. https://selectcommittees.parliament.nz/v/2/5e1472a2-cfbc-4e15-9f8d-9787cb26f357
When these children are added in the actual attendance rates are lowered even further.
I understand that the Term 2 data for 2023 has been processed but the Ministry is sticking to its pre-ordained release date of after the election in November. There is no reason for term 2 data to take longer as there is no extra processing. I also understand the attendance rates have decreased again. I would think Minister Tinetti could confirm that.
This is the worst state I have seen our education system to be in and – as Cameron Bagrie notes – to see our society in 20 years time we need to look at our education system today.
There are bright spots but we ignore them and double-down on practices and processes that clearly are not working.
Despite heavy snowfall and what administrators describe as an “incredible” ski season, troubled North Island skiifield Ruapehu Alpine Lifts is sweating on another application to cabinet for funds, seeking time to find new owners and save the tourism business.
PwC partner John Fisk, appointed liquidator of RAL in June after having previously served as voluntary administrator since October, said despite the strong recent season cash reserves were on track to run dry in two months, potentially before a sale of the business could be completed.
“We’re in a position where we will effectively run of cash at the end of November this year. We are waiting to hear from, hopefully, the Crown next week on just what their position is in terms of funding the rest of the summers season going into next winter,” Fisk said.
We have now put what may be tens of millions of dollars into corporate welfare for a skilfield. I love skiing on Mt Ruapehu but enough is enough – the liquidators should sell it as soon as possible so that new owners can operate it without the debt burden.
Labour Ministers did in fact get relatively high ratings from CEOs early on in Government. But the outcomes in so many areas have been terrible, the ratings have fallen.
Winston Peters has repeated his claim that Bill English said he was about to be rolled as National leader during negotiations after the 2017 election.
According to the New Zealand First leader, English said during post-election negotiations that he was about to lose his position as leader of National. It’s part of the reason, claimed Peters, that he decided to go with Labour. Ultimately, English resigned as National leader the following year.
Peters has made the claims before but said them recently during the Newshub multi-party debate. “You don’t understand how critical it was because I was talking to a man who in his first conversation with me says they are about to roll me,” Peters said during the debate.
He refloated the claims today during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report, saying Bill English had told him, “[Judith] says she’s got the numbers, but she hasn’t.”
Speaking to Newsroom last week, English denied ever making such remarks to Peters. “It’s a ridiculous claim… a fabrication.”
It is total nonsense. It has zero credibility.
This should ring warning bells. What is to stop Winston pulling out similar nonsense this election and if he gets in, supporting Labour back into Government on the basis of a fictitious conversation.
Former President Donald Trump, his top executives, and heirs were declared completely liable of “persistent and repeated fraud”—and the real estate empire was unceremoniously stripped of its business licenses in New York—after a judge’s powerful ruling Tuesday ahead of a massive trial that seeks to hit them with more than $250 million in penalties for bank fraud.
And in a stunning development, the judge has already ordered the complete dissolution of the fabled Trump Organization–the tycoon’s pride and joy, the empire that made him famous and elevated him into the White House. The Trump Organization and its sister companies will be sent into receivership to be under the control of a court-appointed officer.
In his 35-page opinion, Justice Arthur F. Engoron tore apart what he called the Trump family’s “bogus arguments” and obstreperous conduct. And he summed up the entire defense as “a fantasy world, not the real world.”
“In defendants’ world: rent regulated apartments are worth the same as unregulated apartments; restricted land is worth the same as unrestricted land, restricts can evaporate into thin air… all illegal acts are untimely if they stem from one untimely act; and square footage [is] subjective,” he wrote.
This decision will be harder to ignore than the others. A potential $250 million penalty is a lot, especially when Trump’s actual net worth is so uncertain.
The judge seemed particularly annoyed at what he described as the Trumps’ inability to run their business ethically. He had previously assigned a former federal judge to oversee aspects of the Trump Organization to ensure that it did not slyly shift assets ahead of the trial—only to discover that executives wouldn’t let the court-appointed monitor do her job.
“Even with a preliminary injunction in place, and with an independent monitor overseeing their compliance, defendants have continued to disseminate false and misleading information while conducting business,” he wrote.
Chris Hipkins keeps saying you can’t cut much spending without impacting core public services. Well Alex Holland has compiled a great six year record of much of Labour’s spending. It takes a while to read all of it, but you should.
In 2017 when Labour came to power, crown spending was $76 billion per year. Now in 2023 it is $139 billion per year, which equates to a $63 billion annual increase (over $1 billion extra spend every week!) In 2017, NZ’s government debt stood at $112 billion. Today, excluding an accounting trick, that debt is now doubled at $224 billion or $115,000 per household. Meanwhile, in 2017 individual tax payers paid the government $33 billion. By 2023 this had gone up 67% to $55 billion to help fund Labours spending. Here is just some of the wasted spending (which most media swept under the carpet):
$2.75 million handed over to the Mongrel Mob to run a meth rehab programme. More than $100,000 of it spent on hiring a van, $239,400 spent on food & catering, $157,500 for Marae hire.
Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Carmel Sepuloni husband, Daren Kamali, received $73,000 towards the Ulu Cavu Wig Tour of New Zealand. The project involved harvesting his 25-year-old dreadlocks to make a ceremonial wig in the ancient Fijian tradition.
$107,280 in taxpayer money given to a racist stage show about murdering James Cook, his descendants and ‘white men like [him] with pig hunting knives’; ironically at the same time trying to stop ‘hate speech’.
$150,000 tax payer dollars for altering gang members’ tattoos to be more ‘Woke’ – e.g. removing ‘New Zealand’ and replacing with ‘Aotearoa’.
$51 million investigating the Boomer Bike Bridge to Birkenhead then scrapped it.
$21.6 million on the scrapped Income Insurance scheme.
$20 million on the scrapped TVNZ RNZ merger.
$800,000 on the scrapped hate speech laws.
$21 million on consultants just for Te Whatu Ora.
$21 million on consultants just for Te Pukenga.
$2.2 million on Maori Health Authority PR alone.
$72 million on Auckland light rail before anything actually physically done, $47m on consultants alone.
The plan is incredibly tight, however, with the next three budgets each promising less new spending than any budget in the last term of Government.
The operating allowance (a Treasury term for new day-to-day spending) will be $3.5b next year, $3.25 the year following and $3b in the two subsequent years.
That is well below the three operating allowances this most recent term of $4.8b, $5.9b, and $4.8b.
This all comes down to credibility. Labour has never ever kept spending to a level they promised. In 2017 they promised to keep spending to under 30% of GDP and now it is forecast to reach 33.5%. The difference by the way is around $14.5 billion a year.
Their spending in 2023 is more than $20 billion greater than they forecast in their 2019 “wellbeing” Budget.
So the notion that they can magically somehow do three more years in Government (with the Greens and Maori Party) and announce almost no new spending is farcical.
This is in contrast to National when Bill English actually did manage to keep expenditure under control with no increase in overall spending in a couple of years. And with much better health and education outcomes.
Yesterday’s Curia Poll on Auckland Central had Mahesh Muralidhar just behind Chloe Swarbrick 24% to 26% – with 29% of the vote undecided. (NB: Felix Poole is no relation).
A win for Muralidhar can only be a good thing for the families of Auckland Central (that includes Waiheke Island).
The educational need in the area is massive – both for families living in the area and for parents who commute in and have virtually no central options for their children. Many have to leave very early for drop-offs elsewhere and much more need for after-school care back near their homes.
Swarbrick states that she is neuro-diverse. “Throughout her first few years at school Swarbrick says she was relatively decent, but she says the wheels “fell off” in her later years.”
I was stunned to see her begin to debate David Seymour on a recent AM show about education provision. The Greens have – for a very long time – been, at best, disinterested in education (although they have a love for indoctrination). I was stunned with Swarbrick because within the last six years I have been involved in an application for a Designated Character School near an Auckland city transport hub for 480 – ten to fifteen year old – students and with a model that suits those who can be classified as neuro diverse. This would be a partial solution to both problems state above. Seeing how the media paints Swarbrick as big hearted I reached out to her on behalf of these young people – thinking that she would only be able to see good and would advocate to government/the Ministry of Education on their behalf.
She choose not to actively advocate because (in an email to me):
“I know you have other political allies who are also fighting this fight for you. You know that you have multiple times issued press releases and public commentary attacking me and the Greens.”
I most certainly had spoken against the 2020 Cannabis referendum. To have used that as a reason not to advocate for a high quality new school for young people is/was inexcusable. She also clearly did not understand that the Designated Character School would be free for those attending. She wrote: “In the middle of all of that are children and young people, who deserve a high quality, free education. That is where our focus lies.”
I am well aware that she will get in on the list anyway (unless the Green vote collapses) – but – to those 29% undecided in Auckland Central, please vote for Mahesh Muralidhar as your electorate MP.
Newstalk ZB is expanding digitally, with a new subscription service as part of a revamped website – and a high-profile writer is leading the charge as editor. …
Philip Crump, who has carved out a reputation as an agenda-setting writer through his Substack blog and on X (formerly Twitter) under the pseudonym Thomas Cranmer, has been hired as the editor of ZB Plus.
The former lawyer said no topics would be off-limits.
“ZB Plus is all about building on the success and quality of Newstalk ZB’s audio experience with a superb digital experience to match,” he said.
“Subscribers will have unparalleled access to insights from some of the country’s best-known radio hosts and political commentators, journalists and respected business, economic and political columnists.”
The site is recruiting journalists and a stable of columnists is also being confirmed.
This is great news. Philip has done immensely valuable investigative journalism through Twitter and Substack and having that exposed to a wider audience is a very good thing.
Several columnists, including Katherine Rich, Muriel Newman, Bruce Cotterill andFran O’Sullivan, have already been confirmed, among others, to complement news content.
The Victorian Premier made the announcement accompanied by wife, Catherine, at a snap press conference outside the Victorian parliament.
In one sense this is not a huge surprise. His favourability rating went negative in August for the first time ever. But he has been Premier for nine years and Labor Leader for 13 or so. However he won his third term just last year and the next election is not until 2026, so it is unusual to depart so soon after an election.
Both Liam Hehir and Robert MacCulloch point out that the so called fact checking of the first leaders debate by Auckland University’s Public Policy Institute ranged from flat out wrong to conflating opinions and facts.
The latter points out:
Of the 5 “false” statements they list, one is about economics, my subject:
• No fruit and veg GST savings will be passed on to customers (Luxon) – Grocery Commissioner will monitor pricing to prevent this.
However the academics are themselves wrong – since the Grocery Commissioner’s legal powers to enforce passing on the GST cut only apply when anti-competitive behavior is being practiced. If the elasticity of demand of fruit & veges is very high (that is, even a tiny drop in prices would lead to a large increase in demand) then barely any of the GST cut would be passed on to customers. Hence it is legitimate for Luxon to hold that view, unless the academics can produce evidence of their own elasticity-of-demand estimates across a range of such products that support their view (which they haven’t done).
I suggest TVNZ be more careful when it “fact checks” our party Leaders and labels things as “mostly untrue” or “false”. The only patently false statement I have heard these past days was the PM stating that the whole 100% tax cut on fruit and veges would be passed onto consumers, because he had appointed a “grocery commissioner”. What a porker.
A good fact check would have referenced the research done by the Tax Working Group, views of Treasury and IRD and overseas evidence. But instead they merely asserted their own views, based on a false understand of the law.
In an unexpected pivot from politics to packing, Grant Robertson has today announced the launch of Robbo’s Removal Co. After helping more than 218,000 Kiwis move abroad in pursuit of lower taxes and a more affordable cost of living, Grant is making it his mission to help their… pic.twitter.com/gYwYyp1Jgs
